What the Binomial Option Pricing Model Is & How It Works


Editor's Note: Options are not suitable for all investors. Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Please see the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

The binomial option pricing model is a valuation tool that predicts the price of an asset for selected future points in time then uses an iterative approach to work backwards to determine the present value of options on that underlying asset.

The binomial option pricing model has the benefit of being relatively easy to implement and provides visibility into the linkages between the underlying asset price and the option prices as the expiration date approaches.

What Is the Binomial Option Pricing Model?

The binomial option pricing model is a widely used option pricing formula. There are multiple versions of the model, depending on what assumptions the trader wishes to make and what types of options are to be priced.

Fundamentally, the model involves a three-step process:

1.    Generate the binomial price tree for the underlying asset.

2.    Calculate the options values based on the asset prices for each final node.

3.    Calculate the option value at each preceding node.

Recommended: How to Trade Options

Assumptions of the Binomial Option Pricing Model

The binomial option pricing model assumes two possible outcomes: an up or down change in the stock price. While it’s simple in a one-period approach, the model can quickly turn complex over multiple time frames. However, constructing the pricing tree illustrates how an asset’s price changes from period to period.

Another advantage is that the binomial option pricing model can be used to value American, European, and Bermuda-style options. There are adjustments needed to use the binomial model based on which options are being priced. For this discussion, we will focus on American options only.

Other assumptions in the model discussed herein include that the underlying asset pays no dividends, the interest rate is constant, there are no transaction costs, there are no taxes, and that the risk-free rate is constant.

It also assumes investors are risk-neutral.

💡 Quick Tip: If you’re an experienced investor and bullish about a stock, buying call options (rather than the stock itself) can allow you to take the same position, with less cash outlay. It is possible to lose money trading options, if the price moves against you.

How Does the Binomial Model Work?

The binomial option tree is used for finding the current value of an option. This value is equal to the present value of the probability-weighted future payoffs.

Binomial Option Pricing Model Calculations

Let’s dive into calculations for calls and puts. In order to understand how these calculations are made it helps to know the basics of options trading strategies.

Call Options

A call option gives the holder the right but not the obligation to purchase a security at a specific price at a specific time. A call option is in the money when the stock price is above the strike price. A binomial tree’s nodes will value an option at the maximum of zero or its calculated value.

Recommended: How Options Are Priced

When the underlying asset moves up in price, the call option’s payoff (Cup) is the maximum of zero and the stock price (S) multiplied by the up factor (u) and reduced by the exercise price (Px).

call-options-underlying-asset-moves-up-in-price

When the underlying asset moves down in price, the call option’s payoff (Cdown) is the maximum of zero and the stock price (S) multiplied by the down factor (d) and reduced by the exercise price (Px).

call-options-underlying-asset-moves-down-in-price

The binomial model calculates all possible payoffs, based on these calculations. The final outcomes are then discounted back to calculate the present value.

Put Options

Put options give the holder the right but not the obligation to sell a security at a specific price at a specific time. A put option is in the money when the stock price is below the strike price.

When the underlying asset moves up in price, the put option’s payoff (Pup) is the maximum between zero and the exercise price (Px) minus the stock price (S) multiplied by the up factor (u).

put-options-underlying-asset-moves-up-in-price

When the underlying asset moves down in price, the put option’s payoff (Pdown) is the maximum between zero and the exercise price (Px) minus the stock price (S) multiplied by the down factor (d).

put-options-underlying-asset-moves-down-in-price

Binomial Model Example

Assumptions

XYZ stock is currently trading at $100 and you wish to calculate the value of a call option with a $105 strike price that will expire in two weeks.

You expect that each week the stock may increase by 10% or decrease by 15%. The risk-free rate is currently 5% and you will be looking for cash settlement rather than delivery of shares. Additionally, XYZ is not expected to pay dividends over the two-week holding period.

You want to view how the option price will move weekly up until expiration and calculate the option value today.

Generate the Binomial Tree

We construct the binomial tree for the prices of XYZ stock.

binomial-tree-step-1-price-tree-generation

At the end of one week (1/52 of a year or 0.02 years) the stock will be priced at either $110 or $85.

After two weeks, (0.04 years) the price will increase to $121 if the price moves up twice in a row. The stock price will be $93.50 if the price moves up then down, or down then up. Finally, if the stock moves down twice in a row the stock will drop to $72.25.

Note that we can create a binomial tree for any time period size and include many more steps at the cost of greater complexity in the calculations.

Calculate Final Option Values

Having forecast the stock price two weeks into the future we can calculate the value of the $105 strike price call option at that time.

binomial-tree-step-2-calculate-final-option-values

The call option will only have value if the stock moves up twice in a row. At that time the shares will be worth $121 and the option will be worth $16.

Stock price – Strike price = $121 – $105 = $16

Work Backward to Calculate Present Values

Before we can perform the present value calculations we need to determine the probability that the stock price, and the call option price, will move along the upward path in the binomial tree during each week.

Fortunately we have all the information we need to calculate the probability based on our initial assumptions. The probability for an up move is:

probability-for-an-up-move

Where:

•   t = the time period in years (1 week = 0.02 years)

•   r = the risk-free rate (5%)

•   u = up factor ($110 / $100 = 1.1)

•   D = down factor ($85 / $100 = 0.85)

Substituting into the equation:

probability-for-an-up-move-substituting-into-the-equation

Because there are only two paths at each node the the probability of a down move is:

probability-for-an-down-move

Given the probabilities and the potential option values at the end of week two, we use the present value calculation to determine the option value for the end of week one.

We repeat this process until we arrive at the value of the call option today.

binomial-tree-step-3-work-backward-to-calculate-present-values

At each step we weigh the final values by their respective probabilities and discount by the risk-free rate using the following equation:

discounted-value-equation

discounted-value-with-numbers

Finally, we arrive at the present value of the call option of $5.82.

Finally, user-friendly options trading is here.*

Trade options with SoFi Invest on an easy-to-use, intuitively designed online platform.

Pros and Cons of the Binomial Model

Pros

Cons

Simple to calculate Difficult to predict future prices and probabilities
Can be used on American options Assumes conditions that are not seen in real-world markets
Can be used over multiple periods Complexity grows as more periods are considered

Binomial Option Pricing Model vs Black-Scholes Model

The Black-Scholes model comes to a deterministic result based on the inputs. Its inputs are option variables such as the strike price, the current stock price, the time to expiration, the risk-free rate, and the volatility. While the binomial model is considered path dependent, the Black-Scholes model is path independent.

Widely used in practice and considered accurate, the Black-Scholes model makes assumptions that sometimes arrive at options prices that are different from those seen in the real world.

The Black-Scholes model is considered the standard when valuing European options since the model does not allow for options to be exercised early.

Binomial Option Pricing Model

Black-Scholes Model

Probabilistic approach Deterministic approach
Path dependent with two possible outcomes at each node Usually accurate, but output prices sometimes deviate from those seen in the real world
Helpful for American options Helpful for European options

Binomial Option Pricing Model vs Monte Carlo Model

The Monte Carlo model runs thousands of computer simulations to arrive at a solution. Monte Carlo simulation often includes an array of possible paths — some that show higher ending prices and others that show lower prices.

The computer simulations are only as good as the assumptions used. Analysts can tailor the inputs. Often, historical data is used in Monte Carlo simulations which may lead to results that aren’t applicable.

Binomial Option Pricing Model

Monte Carlo Model

An iterative approach that is path dependent Based on computer simulations
Less computer intensive You can tailor the inputs and scenarios
Uses future assumptions, not historical data Output only as good as the assumptions used

The Takeaway

The binomial option pricing model is a valuation tool that predicts the price of an asset for selected future points in time then uses an iterative approach to work backwards to determine the present value of options on that underlying asset.

Due to its relative simplicity and speed, traders often prefer it to the Black-Scholes and Monte Carlo models.

SoFi’s options trading platform offers qualified investors the flexibility to pursue income generation, manage risk, and use advanced trading strategies. Investors may buy put and call options or sell covered calls and cash-secured puts to speculate on the price movements of stocks, all through a simple, intuitive interface.

With SoFi Invest® online options trading, there are no contract fees and no commissions. Plus, SoFi offers educational support — including in-app coaching resources, real-time pricing, and other tools to help you make informed decisions, based on your tolerance for risk.

Explore SoFi’s user-friendly options trading platform.

FAQ

Who developed the binomial model?

The binomial options pricing model was first suggested by William Sharpe in 1978, but the model’s development is associated with work done by John Cox, Stephen Ross, and Mark Rubinstein in 1979.

Are the Black-Scholes and binomial option pricing models the same?

No, these are two different models. The Black-Scholes model provides a numerical result based on inputs. The binomial options pricing model prices an asset based on a range of possible results. The binomial model is considered an iterative calculation since there is a range of possible outcomes to value options. The Black Scholes model uses fixed inputs to arrive at an option’s value.

How is the binomial option pricing model different from the Monte Carlo model?

The Monte Carlo model runs thousands of computer simulations to eventually arrive at an options price. The model first generates a random number based on a probability distribution. That number then uses additional option inputs like volatility and time to expiration to generate a stock price. The stock price at expiration is then used to calculate the value of the option. The result is only as good as the inputs used.

The model runs that process thousands of times, using different variables from the probability functions. To determine option pricing, the Monte Carlo model uses the average of all the calculated results.


Photo credit: iStock/David Petrus Ibars

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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What Is the Ebitda Formula?

EBITDA is an acronym that stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The EBITDA formula is a common way for companies to assess their performance. By looking at earnings without deducting taxes, interest, or other expenses, it’s easier to assess business results and compare them to other companies in the same industry.

The EBITDA formula can also be useful for investors. When investing in the stock market, it’s important to research companies before buying shares of their stock, and EBITDA is a basic measure of profitability that can help investors gauge an organization’s performance.

💡 Recommended: NOPAT vs EBITDA

What Is EBITDA, and How Is EBITDA calculated?

The EBITDA formula is a way of considering a company’s net income — without deducting costs like interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The idea is to create a more apples-to-apples view of how different companies’ perform. Two similar companies in the same industry could have very different tax rates or different capital structures (which can impact debt, and therefore interest paid), making it hard to compare one to the other.

By not deducting certain expenses that aren’t related to performance, EBITDA helps level the playing field and help investors evaluate companies.

EBITDA is also relatively easy to calculate. The information can be found on a company’s balance sheet and income statement. Here’s a quick breakdown of each letter of the acronym, and why it matters in the EBITDA formula:

Earnings

Earnings are a company’s net income over a specific period of time like a fiscal year or a quarter. This number can be found on the company’s income statement; it’s essentially the bottom line, after subtracting all expenses from total revenue.

Interest

This refers to any interest that the company pays on loans and debts. In some cases interest might include interest income, in which case you’d use the total interest amount (interest income – interest paid). Interest is added back to total earnings in the EBITDA formula because the amount of interest paid depends on the types of loans and funding a company has. This number can muddy the waters, when trying to compare two companies that might have very different financing situations.

Taxes

Federal, state, and local taxes are also added back because tax rates depend on where a company is based geographically, and where they conduct business. Thus, taxes aren’t something that a company has much control over, so they aren’t an indicator of performance.

Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation calculates the decreasing value of tangible physical assets or capital expenditures over time (e.g., equipment, vehicles, buildings, etc.). Amortization is a way to account for the expenses of non-tangible assets like intellectual property, like patents and copyrights.

Depreciation and amortization are added back to earnings because they are non-cash expenses. As such, they don’t necessarily reflect on a company’s overall performance or profitability.


💡 Quick Tip: Before opening any investment account, consider what level of risk you are comfortable with. If you’re not sure, start with more conservative investments, and then adjust your portfolio as you learn more.

EBITDA Formula and Calculation

EBITDA can be calculated simply by adding a company’s interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to net income. Another method is to add a company’s operating income — or Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) to its non-cash expenses of depreciation and amortization.

Earnings, or net income, can be calculated as follows:

Net income = Revenue – Cost of Goods Sold – Expenses

How to calculate EBITDA

EBITDA = Net Income + Taxes + Interest Expense + Depreciation & Amortization

Or

EBITDA = Operating income (EBIT) + Depreciation & Amortization

For example, if a company has $4,500,000 in revenue and $500,000 in expenses, their operating income (EBIT) is $4,000,000.

If the company’s assets have depreciated by $100,000 and they have an amortization amount of $75,000, the calculation would be as follows:

EBITDA = $4,000,000 (EBIT) + $100,000 (D) + $75,000 (A)

EBITDA = $4,175,000

It’s possible for EBITDA to be negative if a company has significant losses within a particular quarter or year.

A more specific EBITDA formula is LTM EBITDA, or Last Twelve Months EBITDA, also called Trailing Twelve Months EBITDA (TTM). This calculation finds EBITDA for only the past year.

💡 Recommended: Comparing Operating Income vs EBITDA

How Does EBITDA Differ From Other Measurements of Income?

There are a number of different ways to view an organization’s income, each with their pros and cons. Depending on which lens you use, or which formula, one metric can provide insights into a company’s performance that another won’t. Here are a few common measurements of company income:

•   Cash Flow is an analysis of the amount of money coming into a business versus the amount of money going out. Because of timing issues with sales, you can be profitable without being cash flow positive and vice versa.

•   EBIT is also known as operating income, as discussed above. EBIT adds back the expenses related to interest and taxes, but keeps deductions for depreciation and amortization to give a clearer picture of a company’s earnings inclusive of actual operating costs.

•   EBT is another variation on EBIT. It allows for interest expenses, but eliminates the impact of taxes — since a company’s tax burden has nothing to do with its performance.

•   Net Income appears at the bottom of an income statement, after subtracting all business expenses (including interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) from total revenue.

•   Revenue is also called gross income. It specifically refers to the money a company earns from sales. As such, it’s really only a window into one aspect of the business’s performance.

Understanding company performance can be a complex endeavor, and it’s best to use a combination of metrics that are most meaningful for that company or industry.

Why Is EBITDA Important?

The EBITDA formula is useful because it provides a view of company profitability, without the impact of capital expenditures and financing. By using the EBITDA formula, analysts can compare companies within an industry and investors can quickly use a technical analysis to evaluate companies they might want to invest in.

In that way, EBITDA can also be a tool used by financial advisors to help their clients make investment decisions.

It’s also useful for business owners to calculate their EBITDA each year to see how their company is performing. This is especially important if they are looking to take out a loan or seek investment. Business owners can use the EBITDA formula to gain insight into operating performance, how their company stands in relation to others in the same industry, and the company’s ability to meet its obligations and grow.

What Makes a Good EBITDA?

EBITDA is a measure of a company’s performance, so higher EBITDA is better than lower EBITDA when comparing two or more organizations in the same sector. This is important, because companies that vary in size or operate in different sectors can, of course, also vary widely in their financial performance. So one way to determine whether a company has “good” EBIDTA is to compare it to others of a similar size in the same industry.

Here are two other ways to gauge whether a company’s EBIDTA is good or not.

The EBITDA Coverage Ratio

To add more helpful information to the EBITDA calculation, the EBITDA Coverage Ratio compares EBITDA to debt and lease payments.

The EBITDA coverage ratio calculates a company’s ability to pay off lease payments, debts, and other liabilities.

The calculation for the EBITDA coverage ratio is:

EBITDA Coverage Ratio = (EBITDA + Lease Payments) / (Interest Payments + Principal Payments + Lease Payments)

A ratio equal to or greater than 1 indicates that a company will have a better ability to pay off liabilities. If the ratio is lower, a company may not be able to pay off its debts. The higher the ratio, the more solvent a company is. The current average coverage ratio is 2.


💡 Quick Tip: Are self-directed brokerage accounts cost efficient? They can be, because they offer the convenience of being able to buy stocks online without using a traditional full-service broker (and the typical broker fees).

EBITDA Margins

Another EBITDA calculation investors can do to learn about a company’s performance is the EBITDA Margin calculation. This formula compares annual cash profits to sales. It’s a useful indicator to find out if a company’s EBITDA is ‘good’ or not. The EBITDA Margin calculation is:

EBITDA Margin = EBITDA / Total Revenue

The resulting number is a percentage that shows what portion of revenue was able to be converted into profit within a year. The higher this percentage is, the better a company is performing because it means their expenses aren’t eating into their profits. In general, an EBITDA margin of 60% or higher is considered a good number.

Downsides of the EBITDA Formula

Although the EBITDA formula is a useful tool for investors, it also has some drawbacks. For example: EBIDTA is considered a “non-GAAP” measure, meaning it doesn’t fall under generally accepted accounting principles (a set of rules issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board and procedures commonly followed by many businesses). This also means that the way EBIDTA is calculated isn’t wholly standardized.

Thus, companies also may not include the same information in each report, and they aren’t required to record all information that may be relevant to the equation. For these reasons, it’s best to calculate EBITDA along with other types of evaluations, such as net income and debt payments.

Companies with a low net income may use the EBITDA formula to make themselves look better since the EBITDA number will likely be higher than their income.

Or, because EBITDA tends to obscure the impact of debt and capital investments, a company that’s spending heavily on development costs, or has incurred a lot of debt, may look more robust than it is.

Also, the formula doesn’t work well with certain types of companies, such as companies that have a need to constantly upgrade their equipment.

The Takeaway

Comparing companies you may want to invest in can take a lot of time and technical analysis. If you’re choosing your first stocks, the amount of information and choices can be overwhelming.

EBITDA is one measure of company performance that can be useful, because it takes net income and then removes certain factors that can be confounding: interest paid or earned; federal, state, and local taxes; the impact of capital depreciation and amortization.

For investors interested in learning more about specific companies and building a stock portfolio, opening an online brokerage account can be a good way to get started with investing.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.


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Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

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How Does the Iron Butterfly Spread Work?

What Is an Iron Butterfly Option Strategy?


Editor's Note: Options are not suitable for all investors. Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Please see the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

An iron butterfly spread is a type of options trade involving four separate options contracts. It’s a complicated and advanced options trade, meaning that many beginner investors will likely never use it — they may not have even heard of it.

Iron butterfly spreads can be used as a part of a larger options trading strategy, however, so long as investors understand the ins and outs of how it works, and most importantly, the risks involved.

What Is an Iron Butterfly?

An iron butterfly spread, sometimes called an “Iron Fly” or a “Butterfly Spread” is a trade involving four separate options contracts.

As a strategy that earns investors money when stocks or futures prices make moves within a defined range, it’s especially popular with traders who expect a decrease in implied volatility. To succeed with an iron butterfly spread, traders will try to forecast when option prices will likely decline, usually when the broader markets are in a holding pattern, or gradually moving upwards.

How Does an Iron Butterfly Trade Work?

An Iron Butterfly is a four-legged options spread, since an investor buys four options contracts, two calls and two puts. The call options allow the investor to buy a stock at a given price, and the put options allow the investor to sell a stock at a given price.

In the trade, the calls and puts have three strike prices, but the same expiration date.

In a put or call option, the strike price is the price an investor can sell the underlying security when it is exercised. With a call option, the strike price is the price at which the investor can buy the security. With a put, the strike price is the value at which they can sell the security.

The three strike prices consist of one in the middle, called the options straddle, and two other strike prices, called the strangle, positioned above and below that price. As a trade, the Iron Butterfly has the propensity to deliver profits when the option’s underlying stock hits its expiration date at the middle strike price.

Recommended: Popular Options Trading Terminology to Know

Example of an Iron Butterfly

For the strategy to work, the call and put options that sit on either side of the target stock price should be far enough apart that they can still make money regardless of the unexpected price movement of the stock between the time when the trade is executed, and the expiration of the options.

As an example, you’re an investor with a sense that a stock would reach $50 in the next month, and that it would be at least within a range of $10 above or below the target price. To make an Iron Butterfly trade, you’d buy a call and a put option with a strike price of $50. Then you’d buy a call option ten dollars higher, followed by a put option ten dollars lower than the target price, or saddle price, of $50.

The theory behind the Iron Butterfly strategy is that there’s a high likelihood that the eventual price of the stock targeted in the strategy will trade within a profitable range by the time the strike price of the options arrives.

Pros and Cons of Iron Butterfly Spreads

There is a limit to the maximum profit that an investor can earn by using the Iron Butterfly. That’s because of the cost of the options they have to buy to make money on their bet, as well as the cost of the options they purchase to protect themselves in the event that their hunch is wrong.

In the strategy, the most money the investor can make becomes possible when the underlying stock reaches the stock price at which they’ve purchased the saddle options. But even in this best-case scenario, at least half of the options expire worthless.

While this limited return may seem like a downside, it also comes with limited risk. As long as the stock rises or falls — at the time of the options’ expiration — between the target price and the strike prices of the outlying call and put options, then the trade will not lose money. But the closer it is to the target price, the more money it will make.

The biggest risk in an Iron Butterfly strategy is that the stock trades outside of the strangle, making all of the options worthless.

Recommended: What Is Your Risk Tolerance?

How to Sell out of an Iron Butterfly Spread

The investor will have at least one option that is in the money, and possibly two options that are in the money, when the options expire. They will exercise those options, and make money on the trade.

Traders realize that it’s unrealistic that any given trade will reach its expiration date exactly at the strike price, or straddle price, that they choose. But with a smart spread on the outer range of the call and put options in the trade, the strategy can deliver returns on the capital put at risk that are consistently in the 15-20% range.

What Is the Difference Between Iron Condor and Iron Butterfly?

An Iron Butterfly is similar to another option strategy known as an Iron Condor. The strategies differ in terms of their strike prices and premiums. In an Iron Condor the strike prices are different and in an Iron Butterfly they’re the same. The premiums are higher in an Iron Butterfly than an Iron Condor.


💡 Quick Tip: In order to profit from purchasing a stock, the price has to rise. But an options account offers more flexibility, and an options trader might gain if the price rises or falls. This is a high-risk strategy, and investors can lose money if the trade moves in the wrong direction.

The Takeaway

The Iron Butterfly is a trading strategy that investors use when they believe that a stock price will trade within a specific range. Rather than buying the stock itself, an Iron Butterfly involves purchasing four options based on the investor’s price prediction for a certain security.

Again, trading options is an advanced investment strategy that requires a good amount of background knowledge and market experience. It may not be a good idea for beginning investors to wade into options, or advanced moves like the Iron Butterfly. However, speaking with a financial professional may help get you prepared for trading options.

SoFi’s options trading platform offers qualified investors the flexibility to pursue income generation, manage risk, and use advanced trading strategies. Investors may buy put and call options or sell covered calls and cash-secured puts to speculate on the price movements of stocks, all through a simple, intuitive interface.

With SoFi Invest® online options trading, there are no contract fees and no commissions. Plus, SoFi offers educational support — including in-app coaching resources, real-time pricing, and other tools to help you make informed decisions, based on your tolerance for risk.

Explore SoFi’s user-friendly options trading platform.


Photo credit: iStock/ponla1975

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.


¹Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Probability percentage is subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

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What is a Death Cross Pattern in Stocks? How Do They Form?

What Is a Death Cross Pattern in Stocks? How Do They Form?

A death cross is the X-shape created when a stock’s or index’s short-term moving average descends below the long-term moving average, possibly signaling a sell-off. The death cross typically shows up on a technical chart when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of a stock or index peaks, drops, and then crosses below the 200-day moving average.

Because the 50-day SMA is more of a short-term indicator, it’s considered to be a more accurate indicator of potential volatility ahead than the 200-day SMA, which has averaged in 200 days worth of prices. That said, both the 50-day moving average and the 200-day are, by definition, lagging indicators. Meaning: They only capture what has already happened. Still, some death crosses have appeared to forecast major recessions — although they can also send false signals.

What Is a Death Cross, Exactly?

A death cross is based on a technical analysis of a security’s price. The short-term average dropping below the long-term average to create an X-shape is the “cross”; the “death” part of the name refers to the ominous signal that such a crossing may send for individual securities or overall markets.

A death cross tends to form over the course of three separate phases. In the first phase, the rising value of a security reaches its peak as the momentum dies down, and sellers begin to outnumber buyers. That brings on the second phase, in which the price of the security begins to decline to the point where the actual death cross occurs.

That’s typically marked as being when the security’s 50-day moving average dips under the 200-day moving average.
That crossing alerts the broader market to a potential bearish, long-term trend, which brings about the third and final phase of the death cross. In this phase, the stock may continue to lose value over a longer period.

If the dip following the cross is short-lived, and the stock’s short-term moving average moves back up over its long-term moving average, then the death cross is usually considered to be a false signal.


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What Does the Death Cross Tell Investors?

The death cross has helped predict some of some of the worst bear markets of the past 100 years: e.g., in 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. Nonetheless, because it’s a lagging indicator, meaning that it only reveals a stock’s past performance, it’s not 100% reliable.

Another criticism of the death cross is that the pattern sometimes won’t show up until a security’s price has fallen well below its peak. In order to alter a death cross calculation to see the downtrend a little sooner, some investors say that a death cross occurs when the security’s trading price (not its short-term moving average), falls under its 200-day moving average.

For experienced traders, investors, and analysts, a death cross pattern for a stock is most meaningful when combined with, and confirmed by, other technical indicators.

When interpreting the seriousness of a death cross, experienced investors will often look at a stock’s trading volume. Higher trading volumes during a death cross tend to reveal that more investors are selling into the death cross, and thus buying into the downward trend of the stock.

Investors will also look to technical momentum indicators to see how seriously to take a death cross. One of the most popular of these is the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), which is based on the moving averages of 15, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 days, and is designed to give investors a clearer idea of where a stock is trading than one that’s updated second by second.

Death Cross vs Golden Cross: Main Differences

The opposite of a death cross is known as a golden cross. The golden cross indicator is when the 50-day moving average of a particular security moves higher than its 200-day moving average.

While the golden cross is broadly considered a signal of a bull market, it has some of the same characteristics as the death cross in that it’s essentially a lagging indicator. Experienced investors use the golden cross in conjunction with other technical indicators such as trading volume and MACD.

Is a Death Cross a Reliable Indicator?

Historically, the death cross indicator has an impressive track record as a barometer of the broader stock market, especially when it comes to severe downturns, as noted above.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) went through a death cross shortly before the crash of 1929. More recently, the S&P 500 Index underwent a death cross in May of 2008 – four months before the 2008 crash. In both instances, investors who stayed in the market faced extreme losses. But the Dow also experienced a death cross in March of 2020. And the markets quickly rebounded, and rose to new heights.

The fact is that broad-market death crosses happen frequently. Prior to 2020, the Dow has gone through five death crosses since 2010, and 46 death crosses since 1950. Yet the index has only entered a bear market 11 times since the 1950s. A death cross doesn’t necessarily bring significant losses, either.

Even more noteworthy is that the Dow continued falling after a death cross only 52% of the time since 1950. And when it did keep falling, its median decline after a month was only 0.9%.

For short-term traders, the death cross has less value than it does for investors with longer-term outlooks. As an indicator, the death cross – especially one that’s market-wide – can be especially valuable for long-term investors who hope to lock in their gains before a bear market begins.

How to Trade a Death Cross

The death cross is a significant indicator for some investors. But it’s important to remember that it only shows past trends. As an investor, it’s equally important to use the death cross in conjunction with other indicators such as the MACD and trading volume, as well as other news and information related to the security you’re investing in.


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The Takeaway

Although the ominous-sounding death cross stock pattern is valued by some analysts and investors as a way to foretell a downturn in a certain security or even the broader market, it’s really not that reliable. The main elements of the death cross — a stock’s short-term moving average and long-term moving average — are lagging indicators that may or may not predict a bearish turn of events.

The typical investor may not use or even look for death crosses as a part of their strategy. But knowing, on a basic level, what the term refers to, and why it may be important to the markets, is a good idea.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.


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For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


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What Is a Financial Crisis?

A financial crisis is a situation in which the financial sector and economy of a country, or the world, is thrown into a state of temporary upheaval. A financial crisis can have several causes, whether stock market crashes, political instability, and even global pandemics.

Financial crises are also not a new phenomena, and the United States has experienced many in its history.

Financial Crisis Definition

During a financial crisis, asset prices drop rapidly, usually over the course of days or a few weeks. This drop is often accompanied by a stock market crash as investors panic and pull money from the market. It may also be associated with bank runs in which consumers withdraw assets for fear they will lose value if they remain in the bank. This type of downturn may signal the beginning of a recession.

Recessions are a general period of economic decline during which unemployment may rise, income and consumer spending may fall, and business failures may be up. (To stay up-to-date on the current financial crisis and possible recession visit SoFi’s Recession Help Center.)

Common Causes of Financial Crises

There are a number of situations that can cause a financial crisis, including the bursting of financial bubbles (such as the dotcom bubble), defaults on debt, and currency crises.

Stock market bubbles occur when stock prices rise precipitously, often driven by speculation and investors overvaluing stocks. As more people jump on the bandwagon and buy stocks, prices are driven higher, a cycle that is not based on the stock’s fundamental value. Eventually, the situation can become unsustainable, and the bubble bursts. Investors sell and prices drop quickly.

A failure to meet debt obligations can also lead to a financial crisis. For example, a country may be unable to pay off its debts. This may happen as a country starts to face higher interest rates from lenders worried that the country may not be able to pay back their bonds. As lenders require higher bond yields to offset the risk of taking on a country’s debt, it becomes more and more expensive for that country to refinance. Eventually, the country could default on its debt, which can cause the value of its currency to drop.

A currency crisis occurs when a country’s currency experiences sudden volatility as a result of factors such as central bank policies or speculation among investors. For example, a currency crisis may occur when a country’s central bank pegs its currency to another country’s floating currency (one whose value depends on supply and demand) and fails to maintain that peg.

Examples of Financial Crises

Financial crises date back hundreds of years, and perhaps the first was the South Sea Bubble of 1720. Here’s a look at a handful of other well-known financial crises that have happened in the United States and around the world:

America’s First Financial Crisis

The United States’ first financial crisis occurred in 1790. At that time, the U.S. had few banks, and Alexander Hamilton wanted to model the U.S. financial system after the systems that existed in Britain and Holland. He created the first central bank, known as The First Bank of the United States (BUS). To get the bank off its feet, the public could buy shares in the bank with a mixture of cash and government bonds.

Two problems arose: The demand for government bonds to buy shares led some investors to try and corner the bond market by borrowing widely to buy bonds, and the BUS quickly grew, becoming the nation’s largest lender. Investors, flush with credit, began to use their newfound cash to speculate in futures contracts and short sales markets.

In spring of 1792, the BUS ran low on hard currency and cut lending. The BUS’ leadership was forced to take on new debt to pay off old debt, and tightening credit, led U.S. markets on a downward spiral.

With the system on the verge of collapse, Hamilton was forced to use public funds to buy back U.S. bonds and prop up the price of those bonds. Additionally, he had to direct money to failing lenders, and allowed banks with collateral to borrow as much as they wanted with a penalty rate of 7%. Not only was this America’s first financial crisis, it was also the first instance of a government bailout, setting a precedent for future financial crises.

The Stock Market Crash of 1929

Perhaps the granddaddy of financial crises, the 1929 stock market crash came at a time when stock speculation led to booming markets. At the same time, however, consumer prices were falling and some established businesses were struggling, creating tension within the economy.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, in an effort to slow the overheated markets. Unfortunately, the hike wasn’t big enough to slow the economy. It ended up further hurting already weakening businesses, and industrial production continued to fall.

The market crashed on October 28 and October 29, 1929. The 29th came to be known as Black Tuesday. By mid-November, the market was down 45%. By the next year, banks began to fail. Customers began withdrawing cash as fast as they could, causing bank runs.

The crisis devastated the economy, forcing businesses to close and causing many people to lose their life savings. It also sparked the Great Depression, the worst recession in U.S. history, and the Dow wouldn’t climb to its previous heights for 25 years.

The crash led to a number of financial reforms. The Glass-Steagall legislation separated regular banking, such as lending, from stock market operations. It also gave the government power to regulate banks at which customers used credit to invest.

The government also set up the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission (FDIC) to help prevent bank runs by protecting customer deposits. The creation of the FDIC helped stabilize the financial system, because individuals no longer felt they needed to withdraw their money from the bank at the slightest sign of economic trouble.

The 1973 OPEC Oil Crisis

In October 1973, the 12 countries that make up the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to stop exporting oil to the United States in retaliation for the U.S. decision to offer military aid to Israel. As a result of the embargo, the U.S. experienced gas shortages, and oil prices in the U.S. quadrupled.

Though the embargo ended in March of 1974, its destabilizing effects are largely blamed for the economic recession of 1973–1975. High gas prices meant American consumers had less money in their pockets to spend on other things, lowering demand and consumer confidence.

Other factors beyond the embargo, including wage-price controls and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, exacerbated the financial crisis. Wage-price controls forced businesses to keep wages high, keeping them from hiring new employees. In a series of monetary moves, the Federal Reserve quickly raised and lowered interest rates. Businesses unable to keep up with the changes protected themselves by keeping prices high, which contributed to inflation.

The period’s high unemployment, stagnant economic growth, and inflation came to be known as “stagflation.”

The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998

The Asian financial crisis began in Thailand in July 1997. It spilled over to other East Asian nations and eventually had ripple effects in Latin American and Eastern Europe.

Before the crisis began, Thailand had pegged its currency to the U.S. dollar. After months of speculative pressure that depleted the country’s foreign exchange reserves, Thailand devalued its currency, allowing it to float on the open market. Malaysian, Indonesian and Singapore currencies were devalued as well, causing high inflation that spread to East Asian countries, including South Korea and Japan.

Growth fell sharply across Asia, investment rates fell, and some countries entered into recession.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stepped in, providing billions of dollars of loans to help stabilize weak Asian economies in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea.

In exchange for its loans, the IMF required new rules that led to better financial regulation and oversight. Countries that received the loans had to raise taxes, reduce public spending, and raise interest rates.

The Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008

The origins of the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 are complicated. They started with government deregulation that allowed banks to use derivatives in hedge fund trading. To fuel this trading, the banks needed mortgages and began lending to subprime borrowers who had questionable credit. When interest rates on these mortgages reset higher, borrowers could no longer afford their payments.

At the same time, housing prices dropped as demand for homes fell, and borrowers who could no longer afford their payments were now unable to sell their homes to cover what they owed on their mortgage. The value of the derivatives collapsed and banks stopped lending to each other, resulting in a financial crisis and eventually the Great Recession.

As a result of the financial crisis, the government took over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and bailed out investment banks on the verge of collapse. Additionally, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Bill to prevent banks from taking on too much risk again in the future.

The European Sovereign Debt Crisis

The European Sovereign Debt Crisis followed swiftly on the heels of the global financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. The crisis largely began in Greece in 2009 as investors and governments around the globe realized that Greece might default on its national debt.

At that point the nation’s debt had reached 113% of its GDP. Debt levels within the European Union were supposed to be capped at 60%, and if the Greek economy slowed down it might have trouble paying off its debt. By 2010, the E.U. discovered irregularities in the Greek accounting system which meant that its budget deficits were higher than previously suspected. Bond rating agencies subsequently downgraded the country’s debt.

Investors were concerned that similar events might spread to other members of the E.U., including Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy, which all had similar levels of debt. In response to these concerns, investors in sovereign bonds from these countries demanded higher yields to make up for the increased risk they were taking on. That meant the cost of borrowing rose in these countries. And because rising yields lowers the price of existing bonds, eurozone banks that held these bonds began to lose money.

Eurozone leaders agreed on a €750 billion rescue package that eventually reached €1 trillion by 2012.

Investing During a Financial Crisis

Investing during a recession or financial crisis may not sound like a good idea. Watching stock prices plummet can give even the most seasoned investor reason for pause. But keeping an investment plan on track during a crisis is critical to future success. In the face of a financial crisis, there are a few considerations to make.

First, watching a market fall may inspire panic, tempting investors to pull their money out of a stock. However, that may be exactly the wrong instinct. Bear markets are typically followed by a recovery, although not always immediately, and selling assets may mean that investors lock in losses and miss out on subsequent gains.

Second, some investors engage in a strategy that involves buying more stock when markets are down. Purchasing stock when prices are low during a bear market may provide the opportunity for increased profits as the market turns around, though there are no guarantees.

The Takeaway

A financial crisis can have many causes, but usually leads to falling stock market prices, and often, a recession. There have been many financial crises around the world over the years, and in all likelihood, there will be more in the future. Down markets can be a good opportunity for investors to stress-test their risk tolerance, or to embrace more conservative strategies.

If you have questions about building a portfolio, allocating your wealth or how market conditions will affect your financial situations, it can help to talk to a financial professional.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an Active Invest account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹


Photo credit: iStock/South_agency

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


¹Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Probability percentage is subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

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