Mar
01
2024
How Does Inflation Affect Retirement?

How Does Inflation Affect Retirement?

By | invest, Investing, Preparing for Retirement | Comments Off on How Does Inflation Affect Retirement?

For retirees on a fixed income, inflation can have a significant influence on their ability to maintain their budget. That’s because as inflation rises over time, that fixed income will lose value.

That could mean that retirees need to scale back their spending or even make drastic changes to ensure that they don’t run out of money. The average rate of inflation was 8% in 2022, the highest inflation rate in 40 years. By January 2024, the inflation rate had dropped to 3.1%.

When it comes to their retirement money, 90% of Americans ages 60 to 65 say inflation is their biggest concern, according to a 2023 survey by Nationwide. However, by planning ahead, it is possible to minimize some of the impact of inflation on your nest egg.

Read on to learn more about inflation and retirement and what you can do to help protect your savings.

What Is Inflation?

Inflation is the rate at which prices of goods and services increase in an economy over a period of time. This can include daily costs of living such as gas for your car, groceries, home expenses, medical care, and transportation. Inflation may occur in specific segments of the economy or across all segments at once.

There are multiple causes for inflation but economists typically recognize that inflation occurs when demand for goods and services exceeds supply. In an expanding economy where more consumers are spending more money, there tends to be higher demand for products or services which can exceed its supply, putting upward pressure on prices.

When inflation increases, the purchasing power of money, or its value, decreases. This means as the price of things in the economy goes up, the number of units of goods or services consumers can buy goes down.

How does inflation affect retirement? When purchasing power declines, the value of your savings and investments goes down. While the dollar amount does not change, the amount of goods or services those dollars can buy falls. In retirement, inflation can be especially harmful, since retirees typically don’t have an income that goes up over time.

Concerns about inflation and retirement may even push back the age at which some people think they can afford to retire.

5 Ways that Could Potentially Minimize the Impact of Inflation on Retirement

While inflation can seem like a challenging or even scary part of retirement, there are several investment opportunities that may help you maintain purchasing power and reduce the risk of inflation.

1. Invest in the Stock Market

Investing in stocks is one way to potentially fight inflation. A diversified portfolio that includes equities may generate long-term returns that are higher than long-term inflation. While past performance does not guarantee future returns, over the past 10 years, the average annualized return for the S&P 500 has been 12.39%. Even when inflation is factored in, investors still have substantial returns when investing in stocks. When adjusted for inflation, the average annualized return over the past 10 years is 9.48%.

However, stocks are risk assets, which means they are sensitive to market volatility. These price swings may not feel comfortable to investors who are in retirement so retirees tend to allocate a smaller portion of their portfolio to stocks to help manage market risk.

How much you may decide to allocate to stocks depends on a number of factors such as your risk tolerance and other sources of income.

2. Use Tax-Advantaged Retirement Vehicles

To maximize the amount of savings you have by the time you reach retirement, start investing as early as you can in young adulthood in retirement accounts such as employer-sponsored 401(k)s or Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA). The more time your money has to grow, the better.

With 401(k)s and traditional IRAs, the money in them grows tax-deferred; you pay income tax on withdrawals in retirement, when you might be in a lower tax bracket than you were during your working years.

Another option is a Roth IRA. With this type of IRA, you pay taxes on the money you contribute, and then you can withdraw it tax-free in retirement.

Recommended: How to Open an IRA

3. Do Not Over-Allocate Long-Term Investments With a Low Rate of Return

Risk averse investors may be tempted to keep their nest egg invested in securities that are not subject to major price swings, or even to keep their money in a savings account. However, theoretically, the lower the risk investors take, the lower the reward may be. When factoring in fees and inflation, ultra-conservative investments may only break even or perhaps lose value over time.

While they offer a guaranteed return, high-yield savings accounts, for example, typically don’t earn enough interest to beat inflation in the long run. Since savings account rates are not higher than inflation rates, the buying power of your savings will continue to decline. That’s particularly important for retirees who are often living off their savings and investments, rather than off of an income that rises with inflation.

Because of this, retirees may want to consider keeping a portion of their investments in the stock market.

💡 Quick Tip: If you’re opening a brokerage account for the first time, consider starting with an amount of money you’re prepared to lose. Investing always includes the risk of loss, and until you’ve gained some experience, it’s probably wise to start small.

4. Make Sure You Understand Inflation-Protected Securities

Treasury inflation-protected securities or TIPS, which are backed by the federal government, are designed to help protect investments against inflation. The principal value of the investment increases when inflation goes up and if there’s deflation, the principal adjusts lower per the Consumer Price Index.

However, for some investors, TIPS may have disadvantages. TIPS typically pay lower interest rates than other government or corporate securities. That generally makes them less than ideal for individuals like retirees who are looking for investment income. Also, unless inflation is quite high, and unless they are held for the long-term, TIPS may not offer much inflation-protection. There are also potential tax consequences to consider when the bonds are sold or reach maturity.

Finally, because they are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuation than other bonds, if an investor sells TIPS before they reach maturity, that individual could potentially lose money depending on the interest rates at the time.

Be sure to carefully weigh all the pros and cons of TIPS to decide if they make sense for your portfolio.

5. Buy Real Estate or Invest in REITs

Retirees may also consider investing in real assets. Real estate is typically an inflation hedge because it holds intrinsic value. During periods of inflation, real estate may not only be able to preserve its value, but it might also increase in value. One of the daily costs impacted by inflation is the cost of housing.

That’s why rental income from real estate historically has kept up with inflation. Investing in real estate investment trusts (REITs), may be another way for retirees to diversify their investment portfolio, reduce volatility, and add to their fixed-income. Just be sure to understand the potential risks involved in these investments.

Inflation Calculator for Retirement

It’s important to factor inflation into your plans as you’re saving for retirement. One way to do that is using a retirement calculator, like this one from the Department of Labor, which accounts for how inflation will impact your purchasing power in the future. That calculator uses a 3% inflation rate for retirement planning, but inflation fluctuates and could be higher or lower in any given year.

The Takeaway

While inflation can have an impact on a retirement portfolio, there are ways to protect the purchasing power of your money over time. Allocating a portion of your portfolio to stocks and other investments aimed at minimizing the impact of inflation may help.

Another way to curb the impact of inflation during retirement is to reduce expenses, which allows the money that you have to go further.

And starting to save for retirement as early as possible could help you accrue the compounded returns necessary to counteract rising prices in the future.

Ready to invest for your retirement? It’s easy to get started when you open a traditional or Roth IRA with SoFi. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

Help grow your nest egg with a SoFi IRA.

FAQ

Is inflation good or bad for retirees?

A small amount of inflation each year is a normal part of the economic cycle. But over time, inflation eats away at the value of the dollar and purchasing power of your nest egg is diminished. This can have a negative effect on a retirement investment portfolio or savings.

How can I protect my retirement savings from inflation?

There are several Investing strategies you can use to protect retirement savings from inflation. These include diversifying your portfolio with inflation hedges including TIPS (treasury inflation-protected securities) and investments that typically provide a high rate of return. It’s important to keep saving for retirement even if you don’t have a 401(k).

Does your pension increase with inflation?

Some pensions have a cost of living adjustment on their monthly payments, so they increase over time. However, this is not the case for all pensions. When inflation increases this can affect your benefits.

Photo credit: iStock/RgStudio

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

External Websites: The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third-party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. Links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

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Feb
27
2024
What Is the Rule of 55? How It Works for Early Retirement

What Is the Rule of 55? How It Works for Early Retirement

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off on What Is the Rule of 55? How It Works for Early Retirement

The rule of 55 is a provision in the Internal Revenue Code that allows workers to withdraw money from their employer-sponsored retirement plan without a penalty once they reach age 55. Distributions are still taxable as income but there’s no additional 10% early withdrawal penalty.

The IRS rule of 55 applies to 401(k) and 403(b) plans. If you have either of these types of retirement accounts through your employer, it’s important to understand how this rule works when taking retirement plan distributions.

What Is the Rule of 55?

The rule of 55 is an exception to standard IRS withdrawal rules for qualified workplace plans, including 401(k) and 403(b) plans. Normally, you can’t withdraw money from these plans before age 59 ½ without paying a 10% early withdrawal penalty. This penalty is only waived for certain allowed exceptions, of which the rule of 55 is one.

Specifically, the rule of 55 applies to “distributions made to you after you separated from service with your employer after attainment of age 55,” per the IRS. It doesn’t matter whether you quit, get laid off or retired — you can still withdraw money from your retirement plan penalty-free. If you’re a qualified public safety employee, this exception kicks in at age 50 instead of 55.

💡 Quick Tip: Before opening an investment account, know your investment objectives, time horizon, and risk tolerance. These fundamentals will help keep your strategy on track and with the aim of meeting your goals.

How Does the Rule of 55 Work?

The rule of 55 for 401(k) and 403(b) plans allows workers to access money in their retirement plans without a 10% early withdrawal penalty. This rule applies to current workplace retirement plans only.

You can’t use the rule of 55 to take money from a 401(k) or 401(b) you had with a previous employer penalty-free unless you first roll over those account balances into your current plan before separating from service.

This rule doesn’t apply to individual retirement accounts (IRA) either. So, you can’t use the rule of 55 to tap into an IRA before age 59 ½ without a tax penalty. There are, however, some exclusions that might allow you to do so. For example, you could take money penalty-free from an IRA if you’re using it for the purchase of a first home.

Rule of 55 Requirements

To qualify for a rule of 55 401(k) or 403(b) withdrawal, you’ll need to:

•   Be age 55 or older

•   Separate from your employer at age 55 or older

•   Leave the money in your employer’s plan (rule of 55 benefits are lost if you roll funds over to an IRA)

You also need to have a 401(k) or 403(b) plan that allows for rule of 55 withdrawals. If your plan doesn’t permit early withdrawals before age 59 ½ , then you won’t be able to take advantage of this rule.

Also keep in mind that IRS rules require a 20% tax withholding on early withdrawals from a 401(k) or similar plan. This applies even if you plan to roll the money over later to another qualified plan or IRA. So you’ll need to consider how that withholding will affect what you receive from the plan and how much you may still owe in taxes on your 401(k) later when reporting the distribution on your return.

Example of the Rule of 55

Here’s how the rule of 55 works. Say you lose your job or decide to retire early at age 55, and you need money to help pay your bills and cover lifestyle expenses. Under the rule of 55, you can take distributions from the 401(k) or 403(b) plan you were contributing to up until the time you left your job. You will not be charged the typical 10% early withdrawal penalty in this instance.

Also worth noting: If you decide to go back to work a year or two later at age 56 or 57, say, you can still continue to take distributions from that same 401(k) or 403(b) plan, as long as you have not rolled it over into another employer-sponsored plan or IRA.

Should You Use the Rule of 55?

The IRS rule of 55 is designed to benefit people who may need or want to withdraw money from their retirement plan early for a variety of reasons. For example, you might consider using this rule if you:

•   Decide to retire early and need your 401(k) to close the income gap until you’re eligible for Social Security benefits

•   Are taking time away from work to act as a caregiver for a spouse or family member and need money from your retirement plan to cover basic living expenses

•   Want to take some of the money in your 401(k) early to help minimize required minimum distributions (RMDs) later

In those scenarios, it could make sense to apply the rule of 55 in order to access your retirement savings penalty-free. On the other hand, there are some situations where you may be better off letting the money in your employer’s plan continue to grow.

For instance, if your employer’s plan requires you to take a lump sum payment, this could push you into a substantially higher tax bracket. Having to pay taxes on all of the money at once could diminish your account balance more so than spreading out distributions — and the associated tax liability — over a longer period of time.

You may also reconsider taking money from your 401(k) early if you still plan to work in some capacity. If you have income from a new full-time job or part-time job, for instance, you may not need to withdraw funds from your 401(k) at all. But if you change your mind later and decide to return to work, you can continue to take withdrawals from the same retirement plan penalty-free.

Other Ways to Withdraw From a 401(k) Penalty-Free

Aside from the rule of 55, there are other exceptions that could allow you to take money from your 401(k) penalty-free. The IRS allows you to do so if you:

•   Reach age 59 ½

•   Pass away (for distributions made to your plan beneficiary)

•   Become totally and permanently disabled

•   Need the money to pay for unreimbursed medical expenses exceeding 10% of your adjusted gross income (AGI)

•   Need the money to pay health insurance premiums while unemployed

•   Are a qualified reservist called to active duty

You can also avoid the 10% early withdrawal penalty by taking a series of substantially equal periodic payments. This IRS rule allows you to sidestep the penalty if you agree to take a series of equal payments based on your life expectancy. You must separate from service with the employer that maintains your 401(k) in order to be eligible under this rule. Additionally, you must commit to taking the payment amount that’s required by the IRS for a minimum of five years or until you reach age 59 ½, whichever occurs first.

A 401(k) loan might be another option for withdrawing money from your retirement account without a tax penalty. You might consider this if you’re not planning to retire but need to take money from your retirement plan.

With a 401(k) loan, you’ll have to pay the money back with interest. Your employer may stop you from making new contributions to the plan until the loan is repaid, generally over a five-year term. If you leave your job where you have your 401(k) before the loan is repaid, any remaining amount becomes payable in full. If you can’t pay the loan off, the whole amount is treated as a taxable distribution and the 10% early withdrawal penalty also may apply if you’re under age 59 ½.

The Takeaway

Early retirement may be one of your financial goals, and achieving it requires some planning. Maxing out your 401(k) or 403(b) can help you save the money you’ll need to retire early, and you may be able to access the funds early with the rule of 55.

You may also consider investing in an IRA or a taxable brokerage account to save for retirement. A brokerage account doesn’t have age restrictions, so there are no penalties for early withdrawals before age 59 ½. You’ll have to pay capital gains tax on any profits realized from selling investments, but you can allow the balances in your 401(k) or IRA to continue to grow on a tax-advantaged basis.

Ready to invest for your retirement? It’s easy to get started when you open a traditional or Roth IRA with SoFi. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

Easily manage your retirement savings with a SoFi IRA.

FAQ

Can I use the rule of 55 if I get another job?

Yes, you can use the rule of 55 to keep withdrawing from your 401(k) if you get another job. As long as it’s the same 401(k) you were contributing to when you left your job and you haven’t rolled it over into an IRA or another plan, you can still continue to take distributions from it whether you get a full-time or part-time job.

How do I know if I qualify for Rule of 55?

First, find out if your employer allows for the rule 55 withdrawals. Check with your HR or benefits department. If they do, and you are 55 or older (or age 50 or older if you are a public safety worker), you should qualify for the rule of 55 and be able to take distributions from your most recent employer’s plan. You cannot take penalty-free distributions from 401(k) plans with previous employers.

How do I claim the rule of 55?

To start taking rule of 55 withdrawals, typically all you need to do is reach out to your plan’s administrator and prove that you qualify — meaning that you are age 55 or older and that you’re leaving your job.

What is the rule of 55 lump sum?

Some 401(k) plans may require you to take a lump sum payment if you are using the rule of 55. That could create a big tax liability since you will need to pay income tax on the money you withdraw. In this case you might want to explore other alternatives to the rule of 55. It may also be helpful to speak with a tax professional.

Photo credit: iStock/bagi1998

SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

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Feb
27
2024
hand holding smartphone on yellow background

What Is Considered a Good Return on Investment?

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | No Comments

A good return on investment is generally considered to be about 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, and adjusting for inflation. But of course what one investor considers a good return might not be ideal for someone else.

And while getting a “good” return on your investments is important, it’s equally important to know that the average return of the U.S. stock market is just that: an average of the market’s performance, typically going back to the 1920s. On a year-by-year basis, investors can expect returns that might be higher or lower — and they also have to face the potential for outright losses.

In addition, the S&P 500 is a barometer of the equity markets, and it only reflects the performance of the 500 biggest companies in the U.S. Most investors will hold other types of securities in addition to equities, which can affect their overall portfolio return.

Key Points

•   A good return on investment is generally considered to be around 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, adjusted for inflation.

•   The average return of the U.S. stock market is around 10% per year, adjusted for inflation, dating back to the late 1920s.

•   Different investments, such as CDs, bonds, stocks, and real estate, offer varying rates of return and levels of risk.

•   It’s important to consider factors like diversification and time when investing long-term.

•   Investing in stocks carries higher potential returns but also higher risk, while investments like CDs offer lower returns but are considered safer.

What Is the Historical Average Stock Market Return?

Dating back to the late 1920s, the S&P 500 index has returned, on average, around 10% per year. Adjusted for inflation that’s roughly 7% per year.

Here’s how much a 7% return on investment can earn an individual after 10 years. If an individual starts out by putting in $1,000 into an investment with a 7% average annual return, they would see their money grow to $1,967 after a decade, assuming little or no volatility (which is unlikely in real life).

It’s important for investors to have realistic expectations about what type of return they’ll see.

For financial planning purposes however, investors interested in buying stocks should keep in mind that that doesn’t mean the stock market will consistently earn them 7% each year. In fact, S&P 500 share prices have swung violently throughout the years. For instance, the benchmark tumbled 38% in 2008, then completely reversed course the following March to end 2009 up 23%.

Factors such as economic growth, corporate performance, interest rates, and share valuations can affect stock returns. Thus, it can be difficult to say X% or Y% is a good return, as the investing climate varies from year to year.

A better approach is to think about your hoped-for portfolio return in light of a certain goal (e.g. retirement), and focus on the investment strategy that might help you achieve that return.

Line graph: 10 Year Model of S&P 500

Why Your Money Loses Value If You Don’t Invest it

It’s helpful to consider what happens to the value of your money if you simply hang on to cash.

Keeping cash can feel like a safer alternative to investing, so it may seem like a good idea to deposit your money into a savings account — the modern day equivalent of stuffing cash under your mattress. But cash slowly loses value over time due to inflation; that is, the cost of goods and services increases with time, meaning that cash has less purchasing power. Inflation can also impact your investments.

Interest rates are important, too. Putting money in a savings account that earns interest at a rate that is lower than the inflation rate guarantees that money will lose value over time.

This is why, despite the risks, investing money is often considered a better alternative to simply saving it. The inflation risk is lower.

Get up to $1,000 in stock when you fund a new Active Invest account.*

Access stock trading, options, auto investing, IRAs, and more. Get started in just a few minutes.

*Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

What Is a Good Rate of Return for Various Investments?

As noted above, determining a good rate of return will also depend on the specific investments you hold, and your asset allocation. You can always calculate the expected rate of return for various securities.

CDs

Certificates of deposit (CDs) may be considered a relatively safe investment because they offer a fixed rate of return in return for keeping your money on deposit for a specific period of time. That means there’s relatively little risk — but because investors also agree to tie their money up for a predetermined period of time CDs are also considered illiquid. There is generally a penalty for withdrawing your money before the CD matures.

Generally, the longer money is invested in a CD, the higher the return. Many CDs require a minimum deposit amount, and larger deposits (i.e. for jumbo CDs) tend to be associated with higher interest rates.

It’s the low-risk nature of CDs that also means that they earn a lower rate of return than other investments, usually only a few percentage points per year. But they can be a good choice for investors with short-term goals who need a relatively low-risk investment vehicle while saving for a short-term goal.

Here are the weekly national rates compiled by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as of April 17, 2023:

Non-Jumbo Deposits National Avg. Annual Percentage Yield
1 month 0.24%
3 month 0.78%
6 month 1.03%
12 month 1.54%
24 month 1.43%
36 month 1.34%
48 month 1.29%
60 month 1.37%

Bonds

Purchasing a bond is basically the same as loaning your money to the bond-issuer, like a government or business. Similar to a CD, a bond is a way of locking up a certain amount of money for a fixed period of time.

Here’s how it works: A bond is purchased for a fixed period of time (the duration), investors receive interest payments over that time, and when the bond matures, the investor receives their initial investment back.

Generally, investors earn higher interest payments when bond issuers are riskier. An example may be a company that’s struggling to stay in business. But interest payments may be lower when the borrower is trustworthy, like the U.S. government, which has never defaulted on its Treasuries.

Stocks

Stocks can be purchased in a number of ways. But the important thing to know is that a stock’s potential return will depend on the specific stock, when it’s purchased, and the risk associated with it. Again, the general idea with stocks is that the riskier the stock, the higher the potential return.

This doesn’t necessarily mean you can put money into the market today and assume you’ll earn a large return on it in the next year. But based on historical precedent, your investment may bear fruit over the long-term. Because the market on average has gone up over time, bringing stock values up with it, but stock investors have to know how to handle a downturn.

As mentioned, the stock market averages a return of roughly 7% per year, adjusted for inflation.

Real Estate

Returns on real estate investing vary widely. It mostly depends on the type of real estate — if you’re purchasing a single house versus a real estate investment trust (REIT), for instance — and where the real estate is located.

As with other investments, it all comes down to risk. The riskier the investment, the higher the chance of greater returns and greater losses. Investors often debate the merit of investing in real estate versus investing in the market.

Likely Return on Investment Assets

For investors who have a high risk tolerance (they’re willing to take big risks to potentially earn high returns), some investments are better than others. For example, investing in a CD isn’t going to reap a high return on investment. So for those who are looking for higher returns, riskier investments are the way to go.

Remember the Principles of Good Investing

Investors focused on seeing huge returns over the short-term may set themselves up for disappointment. Instead, remembering basic tenets of responsible investing can best prep an investor for long-term success.

First up: diversification. It can be a good idea to invest in a wide variety of assets — stocks, bonds, real estate, etc., and a wide variety of investments within those subgroups. That’s because each type of asset tends to react differently to world events and market forces. Due to that, a diverse portfolio can be a less risky portfolio.

Time is another important factor when investing. Investing early may result in larger returns in the long-term. That’s largely because of compound interest, which is when interest is earned on an initial investment, along with the returns already accumulated by that investment. Compound interest adds to your returns.

Investing with SoFi

While every investor wants a “good return” on their investments, there isn’t one way to achieve a good return — and different investments have different rates of return, and different risk levels. Investing in CDs tends to deliver lower returns, while stocks (which are more volatile) may deliver higher returns but at much greater risk.

Your own investing strategy and asset allocation will have an influence on the potential returns of your portfolio over time.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an Active Invest account with SoFi invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, and other fees apply (full fee disclosure here). Members can access complimentary financial advice from a professional.

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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Feb
27
2024

How to Calculate Expected Rate of Return

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | No Comments

When investing, you often want to know how much money an investment is likely to earn you. That’s where the expected rate of return comes in; it’s calculated using the probabilities of investment returns for various potential outcomes. Investors can utilize the expected return formula to help project future returns.

Though it’s impossible to predict the future, having some idea of what to expect can be critical in setting expectations for a good return on investment.

Key Points

•   The expected rate of return is the profit or loss an investor expects from an investment based on historical rates of return and the probability of different outcomes.

•   The formula for calculating the expected rate of return involves multiplying the potential returns by their probabilities and summing them.

•   Historical data can be used to estimate the probability of different returns, but past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

•   The expected rate of return does not consider the risk involved in an investment and should be used in conjunction with other factors when making investment decisions.

•  

What Is the Expected Rate of Return?

The expected rate of return — also known as expected return — is the profit or loss an investor expects from an investment, given historical rates of return and the probability of certain returns under different scenarios. The expected return formula projects potential future returns.

Expected return is a speculative financial metric investors can use to determine where to invest their money. By calculating the expected rate of return on an investment, investors get an idea of how that investment may perform in the future.

This financial concept can be useful when there is a robust pool of historical data on the returns of a particular investment. Investors can use the historical data to determine the probability that an investment will perform similarly in the future.

However, it’s important to remember that past performance is far from a guarantee of future performance. Investors should be careful not to rely on expected returns alone when making investment decisions.

Recommended: Building An Investment Portfolio

How To Calculate Expected Return

To calculate the expected rate of return on a stock or other security, you need to think about the different scenarios in which the asset could see a gain or loss. For each scenario, multiply that amount of gain or loss (return) by its probability. Finally, add up the numbers you get from each scenario.

The formula for expected rate of return looks like this:

Expected Return = (R1 * P1) + (R2 * P2) + … + (Rn * Pn)

In this formula, R is the rate of return in a given scenario, P is the probability of that return, and n is the number of scenarios an investor may consider.

For example, say there is a 40% chance an investment will see a 20% return, a 50% chance that the investment will return 10%, and a 10% chance the investment will decline 10%. (Note: all the probabilities must add up to 100%)

The expected return on this investment would be calculated using the formula above:

Expected Return = (40% x 20%) + (50% x 10%) + (10% x -10%)

Expected Return = 8% + 5% – 1%

Expected Return = 12%

What Is Rate of Return?

The expected rate of return mentioned above looks at an investment’s potential profit and loss. In contrast, the rate of return looks at the past performance of an asset.

A rate of return is the percentage change in value of an investment from its initial cost. When calculating the rate of return, you look at the net gain or loss in an investment over a particular time period. The simple rate of return is also known as the return on investment (ROI).

Recommended: What Is the Average Stock Market Return?

How to Calculate Rate of Return

The formula to calculate the rate of return is:

Rate of return = [(Current value − Initial value) ÷ Initial Value ] × 100

Let’s say you own a share that started at $100 in value and rose to $110 in value. Now, you want to find its rate of return.

In our example, the calculation would be [($110 – $100) ÷ $100] x 100 = 10

A rate of return is typically expressed as a percentage of the investment’s initial cost. So, if you were to sell your share, this investment would have a 10% rate of return.

Recommended: What Is Considered a Good Return on Investment?

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Different Ways to Calculate Expected Rate of Return

How to Calculate Expected Return Using Historical Data

To calculate the expected return of a single investment using historical data, you’ll want to take an average rate of returns in certain years to determine the probability of those returns. Here’s an example of what that would look like:

Annual Returns of a Share of Company XYZ

Year

 Return
2011 16%
2012 22%
2013 1%
2014 -4%
2015 8%
2016 -11%
2017 31%
2018 7%
2019 13%
2020 22%

For Company XYZ, the stock generated a 21% average rate of return in five of the ten years (2011, 2012, 2017, 2019, and 2020), a 5% average return in three of the years (2013, 2015, 2018), and a -8% average return in two of the years (2014 and 2016).

Using this data, you may assume there is a 50% probability that the stock will have a 21% rate of return, a 30% probability of a 5% return, and a 20% probability of a -8% return.

The expected return on a share of Company XYZ would then be calculated as follows:

Expected return = (50% x 21%) + (30% x 5%) + (20% x -8%)

Expected return = 10% + 2% – 2%

Expected return = 10%

Based on the historical data, the expected rate of return for this investment would be 10%.

However, when using historical data to determine expected returns, you may want to consider if you are using all of the data available or only data from a select period. The sample size of the historical data could skew the results of the expected rate of return on the investment.

How to Calculate Expected Return Based on Probable Returns

When using probable rates of return, you’ll need the data point of the expected probability of an outcome in a given scenario. This probability can be calculated, or you can make assumptions for the probability of a return. Remember, the probability column must add up to 100%. Here’s an example of how this would look.

Expected Rate of Return for a Stock of Company ABC

Scenario

 Return

 Probability

 Outcome (Return * Probability)
1 14% 30% 4.2%
2 2% 10% 0.2%
3 22% 30% 6.6%
4 -18% 10% -1.8%
5 -21% 10% -2.1%
Total 100% 7.1%

Using the expected return formula above, in this hypothetical example, the expected rate of return is 7.1%.

Calculate Expected Rate of Return on a Stock in Excel

Follow these steps to calculate a stock’s expected rate of return in Excel:

1. In the first row, enter column labels:

•   A1: Investment

•   B1: Gain A

•   C1: Probability of Gain A

•   D1: Gain B

•   E1: Probability of Gain B

•   F1: Expected Rate of Return

2. In the second row, enter your investment name in B2, followed by its potential gains and the probability of each gain in columns C2 – E2

•   Note that the probabilities in C2 and E2 must add up to 100%

3. In F2, enter the formula = (B2*C2)+(D2*E2)

4. Press enter, and your expected rate of return should now be in F2

If you’re working with more than two probabilities, extend your columns to include Gain C, Probability of Gain C, Gain D, Probability of Gain D, etc.

If there’s a possibility for loss, that would be negative gain, represented as a negative number in cells B2 or D2.

Limitations of the Expected Rate of Return Formula

Historical data can be a good place to start in understanding how an investment behaves. That said, investors may want to be leery of extrapolating past returns for the future. Historical data is a guide; it’s not necessarily predictive.

Another limitation to the expected returns formula is that it does not consider the risk involved by investing in a particular stock or other asset class. The risk involved in an investment is not represented by its expected rate of return.

In this historical return example above, 10% is the expected rate of return. What that number doesn’t reveal is the risk taken in order to achieve that rate of return. The investment experienced negative returns in the years 2014 and 2016. The variability of returns is often called volatility.

Recommended: A Guide to Historical Volatility

Standard Deviation

To understand the volatility of an investment, you may consider looking at its standard deviation. Standard deviation measures volatility by calculating a dataset’s dispersion (values’ range) relative to its mean. The larger the standard deviation, the larger the range of returns.

Consider two different investments: Investment A has an average annual return of 10%, and Investment B has an average annual return of 6%. But when you look at the year-by-year performance, you’ll notice that Investment A experienced significantly more volatility. There are years when returns are much higher and lower than with Investment B.

Year

 Annual Return of Investment A

 Annual Return of Investment B
2011 16% 8%
2012 22% 4%
2013 1% 3%
2014 -6% 0%
2015 8% 6%
2016 -11% -2%
2017 31% 9%
2018 7% 5%
2019 13% 15%
2020 22% 14%
Average Annual Return 10% 6%
Standard Deviation 13% 5%

Investment A has a standard deviation of 13%, while Investment B has a standard deviation of 5%. Although Investment A has a higher rate of return, there is more risk. Investment B has a lower rate of return, but there is less risk. Investment B is not nearly as volatile as Investment A.

Systematic and Unsystematic Risk

All investments are subject to pressures in the market. These pressures, or sources of risk, can come from systematic and unsystematic risks. Systematic risk affects an entire investment type. Investors may struggle to reduce the risk through diversification within that asset class.

Because of systematic risk, you may consider building an investment strategy that includes different asset types. For example, a sweeping stock market crash could affect all or most stocks and is, therefore, a systematic risk. However, if your portfolio includes bonds, commodities, and real estate, you may limit the impact of the equities crash.

In the stock market, unsystematic risk is specific to one company, country, or industry. For example, technology companies will face different risks than healthcare and energy companies. This type of risk can be mitigated with portfolio diversification, the process of purchasing different types of investments.

Expected Rate of Return vs Required Rate of Return

Expected return is just one financial metric that investors can use to make investment decisions. Similarly, investors may use the required rate of return (RRR) to determine the amount of money an investment needs to generate to be worth it for the investor. The required rate of return incorporates the risk of an investment.

What is the Dividend Discount Model?

Investors may use the dividend discount model to determine an investment’s required rate of return. The dividend discount model can be used for stocks with high dividends and steady growth. Investors use a stock’s price, dividend payment per share, and projected dividend growth rate to calculate the required rate of return.

The formula for the required rate of return using the dividend discount model is:

RRR = (Expected dividend payment / Share price) + Projected dividend growth rate

So, if you have a stock paying $2 in dividends per year and is worth $20 and the dividends are growing at 5% a year, you have a required rate of return of:

RRR = ($2 / $20) + 0.5
RRR = .10 + .05
RRR = .15, or 15%

What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model?

The other way of calculating the required rate of return is using a more complex model known as the capital asset pricing model.

In this model, the required rate of return is equal to the risk-free rate of return, plus what’s known as beta (the stock’s volatility compared to the market), which is then multiplied by the market rate of return minus the risk-free rate. For the risk-free rate, investors usually use the yield of a short-term U.S. Treasury.

The formula is:

RRR = Risk-free rate of return + Beta x (Market rate of return – Risk-free rate of return)

For example, let’s say an investment has a beta of 1.5, the market rate of return is 5%, and a risk-free rate of 1%. Using the formula, the required rate of return would be:

RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.05 – .01)
RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.04)
RRR = .01 + .06
RRR = .07, or 7%

The Takeaway

There’s no way to predict the future performance of an investment or portfolio. However, by looking at historical data and using the expected rate of return formula, investors can get a better sense of an investment’s potential profit or loss.

There’s no guarantee that the actual performance of a stock, fund, or other assets will match the expected return. Nor does expected return consider the risk and volatility of assets. It’s just one factor an investor should consider when deciding on investments and building a portfolio.

If you’re ready to build your portfolio, SoFi Invest® can help. With a SoFi Invest investment account, you can trade stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with no commission for as little as $5. And if you would like help creating an investment portfolio, SoFi automated investing uses a portfolio of ETFs based on your goals, risk tolerance, and projected timeline.

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

FAQ

How do you find the expected rate of return?

An investment’s expected rate of return is the average rate of return that an investor can expect to receive over the life of the investment. Investors can calculate the expected return by multiplying the potential return of an investment by the chances of it occurring and then totaling the results.

How do you calculate the expected rate of return on a portfolio?

The expected rate of return on a portfolio is the weighted average of the expected rates of return on the individual assets in the portfolio. You first need to calculate the expected return for each investment in a portfolio, then weigh those returns by how much each investment makes up in the portfolio.

What is a good rate of return?

A good rate of return varies from person to person. Some investors may be satisfied with a lower rate of return if its performance is consistent, while others may be more aggressive and aim for a higher rate of return even if it is more volatile. Ultimately, it is up to the individual to decide what is considered a good rate of return.

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SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
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2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
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27
2024
The Black Scholes Model, Explained

The Black-Scholes Model, Explained

By | Financial Independence, Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off on The Black-Scholes Model, Explained

The Black-Scholes option pricing model is a mathematical formula used to calculate the theoretical price of an option. It’s a commonly-used formula for determining the price of contracts, and as such, can be useful for investors in the options market to know and have in their pocket for use.

But there are some important things to know about it, such as the fact that the model only applies to European options, and more.

Key Points

•   The Black-Scholes model is a mathematical formula used to calculate the theoretical price of an option.

•   It is commonly used for pricing options contracts and helps investors determine the value of options they’re considering trading.

•   The model takes into account factors like the option’s strike price, time until expiration, underlying stock price, interest rates, and volatility.

•   The Black-Scholes model was created by Myron Scholes and Fischer Black in 1973 and is also known as the Black-Scholes-Merton model.

•   While the model has some assumptions and limitations, it is considered an important tool for European options traders.

What Is the Black-Scholes Model?

As mentioned, the Black-Scholes model is one of the most commonly used formulas for pricing options contracts. The model, also known as the Black-Scholes formula, allows investors to determine the value of options they’re considering trading.

The formula takes into account several important factors affecting options in an attempt to arrive at a fair market price for the derivative. The Black-Scholes options pricing model only applies to European options.


💡 Quick Tip: How do you decide if a certain trading platform or app is right for you? Ideally, the investment platform you choose offers the features that you need for your investment goals or strategy, e.g., an easy-to-use interface, data analysis, educational tools.

The History of the Black-Scholes Model

The Black-Scholes model gets its name from Myron Scholes and Fischer Black, who created the model in 1973. The model is sometimes called the Black-Scholes-Merton model, as Robert Merton also contributed to the model’s development. These three men were professors at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and University of Chicago.

The model functions as a differential equation that requires five inputs:

•   The option’s strike price

•   The amount of time until the option expires

•   The price of its underlying stock

•   Interest rates

•   Volatility

Modern computing power has made it easier to use this formula and made it more popular among those interested in stock options trading.

The model only works for European options, since American options allow contract holders to exercise at any time between the time of purchase and the expiration date. By contrast, European options come at cheaper prices and only allow the owner to exercise the option on the expiration date. So, while European options only offer a single opportunity to earn profits, American options offer multiple opportunities.

Recommended: American vs European Options: What’s the Difference?

What Does the Black-Scholes Model Tell?

The main goal of the Black-Scholes Formula is to determine the chances that an option will expire in the money. To this end, the model goes deeper than simply looking at the fact that a call option will increase when its underlying stock price rises and incorporates the impact of stock volatility.

The model looks at several variables, each of which impact the value of that option. Greater volatility, for example, could increase the odds the options will wind up being in the money before its expiration. The more time the investor has to exercise the option also increases the likelihood of it winding up in the money and lowers the present value of the exercise price. Interest rates also influence the price of the option, as higher rates make the option more expensive by decreasing the present value of the exercise price.

The Black-Scholes Formula

The Black-Scholes formula expresses the value of a call option by taking the current stock prices multiplied by a probability factor (D1) and subtracting the discounted exercise payment times a second probability factor (D2).

Explaining in exact detail what D1 and D2 represent can be difficult because the original research papers by Black and Scholes didn’t explain or interpret D1 and D2, and neither did the papers published by Merton. Entire research papers have been written on the subject of D1 and D2 alone.


💡 Quick Tip: If you’re an experienced investor and bullish about a stock, buying call options (rather than the stock itself) can allow you to take the same position, with less cash outlay. It is possible to lose money trading options, if the price moves against you.

Why Is the Black-Scholes Model Important?

The Black-Scholes option pricing model is so important that it once won the Nobel Prize in economics. Some even claim that this model is among the most important ideas in financial history.

Some traders consider the Black-Scholes Model one of the best methods for figuring out fair prices of European call options. Since its creation, many scholars have elaborated on and improved this formula. In this sense, Black and Scholes made a significant contribution to the academic world when it comes to math and finance.

Some claim that the Black-Scholes model has made a significant contribution to the efficiency of the options and stock markets. While designed for European options, the Black-Scholes Model can still help investors understand how an option’s price might react to its underlying stock price movements and improve their overall options trading strategies.

This allows investors to optimize their portfolios by hedging accordingly, making the overall markets more efficient. However, others assert that the model has increased volatility in the markets, as more investors constantly try to fine tune their trades according to the formula.

How Accurate Is the Black-Scholes Model?

Some studies have shown the Black-Scholes model to be highly predictive of options prices. This doesn’t mean the formula has no flaws, though.

The model tends to undervalue calls that are deeply in the money and overvalue calls that are deeply out of the money.

That means the model might assign an artificially low value to options that are much higher than the price of their underlying stock, while it may overvalue options that are far beneath the stock’s current value. Options that deal with stocks yielding a high dividend also tend to get mispriced by the model.

Assumptions of the Black-Scholes Model

There are also a few assumptions made by the model that can lead to less-than-perfect predictions. Some of these include:

•   The assumption that volatility and the risk- free rate within a stock remain constant

•   The assumption that stock prices are stable and large price swings don’t happen

•   The assumption that a stock doesn’t pay dividends until after an option expires

Recommended: How Do Dividends Work?

Such assumptions are necessary, even if they may negatively impact results. Relying on assumptions like these make the task possible, as only so many variables can reasonably be calculated.

Over the years, math scholars have elaborated on the work of Black and Scholes and made efforts to compensate for some of the gaps created by the original assumptions.

This leads to another flaw of the Black-Scholes model, unlike other inputs in the model, volatility must be an estimate rather than an objective fact. Interest rates and the amount of time left until the option expires are concrete numbers, while volatility has no direct numerical value.

The best a financial analyst can do is calculate an estimation of volatility by using something like the formula for variance. Variance is a measurement of the variability of an asset, or how much prices change from time to time. One common measurement of volatility is the standard deviation, which is equivalent to the square root of variance.

The Takeaway

The Black-Scholes option-pricing model is among the most influential mathematical formulas in modern financial history, and it may be the most accurate way to determine the value of a European call option. It’s a complicated formula that has some drawbacks that traders must understand, but it’s a useful tool for European options traders.

Given the Black-Scholes model’s complexity, it’s likely that many investors will never use it. That doesn’t mean it isn’t important to know or understand, of course, but many investors may not get much practical use out of it unless they delve deeper into the world of options trading.

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Photo credit: iStock/akinbostanci

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SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
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Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.
Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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