How do I read an IPO subscription?

To read an IPO subscription, you’ll need to go to the related exchange’s website, and corresponding IPO page. On that page, you should find a list of companies, along with the number of shares being offered by the company, and the number of bids for those shares — along with the investor category for which those shares are being bid.

InvestGen Archives | Page 29 of 83

Sep

2023

What Is IPO Subscription Status?

By Samuel Becker | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

An IPO subscription status describes the position of a company’s initial public offering (or IPO), as it relates to how many committed investors it has prior to the actual IPO.

For example, an IPO may be “fully subscribed,” “undersubscribed,” or “oversubscribed.”

Many investors are intrigued by IPOs, because it’s an opportunity to put money into a relatively early-stage company that has room to grow over time. Some companies draw more investor interest than others, and the IPO’s subscription status is one way to gauge that, because investors sign up with the intent to purchase a certain number of shares.

A company’s IPO subscription status doesn’t guarantee that the stock will perform one way or another. It’s just a preliminary indicator that may help interested investors navigate a potentially risky investment move.

Key Points

• An IPO subscription status describes the position of a company’s initial public offering (IPO) with respect to how many committed investors it has before the actual IPO.

• An IPO is when a company offers shares for sale to members of the general public through a stock exchange.

• Knowing an IPO’s subscription status can give investors an indication of how much demand there is for shares, and how an IPO stock may perform once it hits the exchanges.

• Typically, only certain investors can participate in IPO bidding and subscribe to an IPO.

• Individual investors may not have access to IPO subscriptions in the U.S., but research can help them find the right companies to invest in as they go public.

IPO Review

“IPO” is an acronym that stands for “initial public offering.” It represents the first time that a company offers shares for sale to members of the general public through a stock exchange. Prior to an IPO, you would not be able to find a company’s stock trading on an exchange such as the New York Stock Exchange, for example.

Prior to going through the IPO process, a company is private, and its investors usually include its founders, employees, and venture capitalists. A private company usually decides to go public to attract additional investment.

But it’s the tricky period before an IPO, when a company is still private, that many prospective investors look to make a move and get in early. This is when investors “subscribe” to an IPO, which means they’re agreeing or signaling their intent to buy a company’s stock prior to its IPO.

When the IPO executes, those investors may be able to purchase the number of shares to which they previously agreed. Typically, only certain investors can participate in IPO bidding and subscribe to an IPO.

💡 Quick Tip: Keen to invest in an initial public offering, or IPO? Be sure to check with your brokerage about what’s required. Typically IPO stock is available only to eligible investors.

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IPO Subscription Status Defined

A company’s IPO subscription status refers to how investors have subscribed to a public issue. The goal of an IPO is to sell all of its shares — or, to reach an IPO subscription status of fully subscribed, and a valuation in line with its calculations for pricing its IPO.

In that event, all of a company’s shares are spoken for prior to hitting the exchanges, and any leftover shares won’t see their values reduced in order to attract buyers. Early investors looking to cash out after an IPO typically must wait for the lock-up period to expire before they can sell their shares.

Keep in mind that many IPO stocks in the U.S. are gobbled up by large, institutional investors involved with the IPO’s underwriter. But although the average retail investor is not typically included in an IPO roadshow, they may still be able to buy an IPO stock at its offering price.

Some brokerages have programs that allow qualified investors to request IPO stocks at their offering price, but there’s no guarantee those investors will actually get the shares.

Why IPO Subscription Status Matters

An IPO’s subscription status matters in that it can provide investors a sense of how an IPO stock may perform once it hits the exchanges. That’s pretty important, especially for traders or investors who are looking to earn a profit flipping IPO stocks.

Shows Demand of IPO Shares

Knowing an IPO’s subscription status can give investors an inkling as to how much demand there is for shares — if demand is high (an IPO is fully or oversubscribed), it’s a signal that an IPO stock may gain value after its market debut. But it’s not a guarantee.

Conversely, an undersubscribed IPO sends a signal that investors aren’t that interested. And when stocks do hit the exchanges, they may see a price reduction soon thereafter.

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The Takeaway

While individual investors may not have access to IPO subscriptions in the United States, you can still participate in the IPO market. The key is doing your research to find the right companies to invest in as they go public.

Whether you’re curious about exploring IPOs, or interested in traditional stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), you can get started by opening an account on the SoFi Invest® brokerage platform. On SoFi Invest, eligible SoFi members have the opportunity to trade IPO shares, and there are no account minimums for those with an Active Investing account. As with any investment, it's wise to consider your overall portfolio goals in order to assess whether IPO investing is right for you, given the risks of volatility and loss.

Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

FAQ

How many times can an IPO be oversubscribed?

IPOs get oversubscribed frequently, which means that more investors want to buy shares than a company has available to issue. There isn’t really a limit as to how many times it can be oversubscribed, but depending on the category of investor, it’s not uncommon for IPOs to be oversubscribed dozens or even hundreds of times.

What is an IPO subscription rate?

IPO subscription rates are an estimate of how many bids are received for each investor category, divided by the number of shares allotted for each category by the company. This helps determine the level of participation among investors in each category.

Photo credit: iStock/SeventyFour

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Investing in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Further, there are a variety of risk factors to consider when investing in an IPO, including but not limited to, unproven management, significant debt, and lack of operating history. For a comprehensive discussion of these risks please refer to SoFi Securities’ IPO Risk Disclosure Statement. IPOs offered through SoFi Securities are not a recommendation and investors should carefully read the offering prospectus to determine whether an offering is consistent with their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation.

New offerings generally have high demand and there are a limited number of shares available for distribution to participants. Many customers may not be allocated shares and share allocations may be significantly smaller than the shares requested in the customer’s initial offer (Indication of Interest). For SoFi’s allocation procedures please refer to IPO Allocation Procedures.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Sep

2023

IPO Book-Building Process Explained

By Mike Zaccardi, CMT, CFA | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Initial public offering (IPO) book building can help with efficient price discovery for companies looking to IPO. After the IPO, when shares are available for trading in the secondary market, book building may also be used to price secondary equity offerings.

With book building, the investment bank that underwrites an IPO reaches out to institutional investors to gauge their interest in buying shares of a company looking to go public. The underwriter asks those interested to submit bids detailing the number of shares they seek to own and at what price they would be willing to pay.

The process of book building has become more common than the fixed-pricing method, which may not yield the most accurate results.

Recommended: Why Do Companies Go Public?

Key Points

• Book building is the preferred method by which a company prices IPO shares.

• There are five key steps in the IPO book building process: find a banker, collect bids, determine a price, disclose details, and allotment.

• Partial book building is restricted to institutional investors, while accelerated book building is used for large equity offerings to raise capital in a short period.

• The risk of an IPO being underpriced or overpriced when shares go public can lead to volatility, making IPO investing a high-risk endeavor.

• The goal of book building is to make sure proper market-based price discovery to help the issuing company set a fair share price.

What Is Book Building?

Book building is the preferred method by which a company prices IPO shares.

Among the first steps of the IPO process is for the private company to hire an investment bank to lead the underwriting effort. IPO book building happens when the IPO underwriter gathers interest from institutional investors, such as fund managers and other large investors, to determine the value of the private company’s shares.

As part of the IPO and book-building process, the investment bank must promote the company and the offering to stir up interest before they can determine share price.

This is often called an IPO roadshow. If the underwriter finds that there is sufficient interest based on responses from the investor community, then the bank will determine an offering price to the issuer.

Book building is recommended by all the major stock exchanges, and is common practice in most developed countries. It has become more popular than the fixed-pricing method, which involves setting an IPO price before measuring investor interest. Book building, on the other hand, generates and records investor interest to land on an IPO price.

Thus book building helps find a fair share price for a private company based on market interest. When a bank gauges market interest, a floor price is sometimes used, and bids arrive at or above that floor price. The stock price is determined after the bid closing date. With the book building method, demand can be seen in real-time as the book is being built.

💡 Quick Tip: IPO stocks can get a lot of media hype. But savvy investors know that where there’s buzz there can also be higher-than-warranted valuations. IPO shares might spike or plunge (or both), so investing in IPOs may not be suitable for investors with short time horizons.

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Book-Building Process

Firms going public want to sell their stock at the highest possible price without deterring the investment community. There are five key steps the issuing company must perform in the process of IPO book building in order to discover a market-based share price.

1. Find a Banker: The issuing company hires an investment bank to underwrite the transaction. The underwriter advises the company, guiding it through the lengthy book-building process. The investment bank also commits to buying all the shares from the issuer, carrying all the risk. The bank will then resell the shares to investors.

2. Collect Bids: The investment bank invites investors to submit bids on the number of shares they are interested in and at what price. This solicitation and the preliminary bids give the bankers and the company’s management an indication of the market’s interest for the shares. Roadshows are often used to grow investor appetite.

3. Determine a Price: The book is built by aggregating demand as the bids arrive. The bank uses a weighted average to determine a final cutoff price based on indications of interest. This step helps with pricing an IPO.

4. Disclosure: The underwriter must disclose details of the bids to the public.

5. Allotment: Accepted bidders are allotted shares.

Even if the IPO book-building process goes smoothly and a price is set, it does not ensure that actual transactions will take place at that price once the IPO is open to buyers. Book building simply helps to gauge demand and determines a fair market-based price. But substantial risks remain for interested investors, who could see steep losses if the share price drops after the IPO.

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What Is Partial Book Building?

Partial book building is another form of the IPO book-building process that happens only at the institutional level, rather than the retail level.

With partial book building, a select group of investors is approached regarding their interest in the IPO. Using their bids, a weighted average price is calculated and a cutoff price is determined. That cutoff price is then used as the public offering price to retail investors as a fixed price. The cost of the partial book-building IPO process is often lower due to its relative efficiency.

What Is Accelerated Book Building?

Accelerated book building is used for large equity offerings to raise capital in a short period of time. The investment bank is tasked with book building, determining a cutoff price, and allocating shares within 48 hours or less. No roadshow is involved.

The accelerated book-building process is used when a company needs immediate financing and raising capital from debt is off the table. It is typically done when a firm seeks to acquire another company.

Accelerated book building is often conducted overnight, with the issuing company asking investment banks to serve as underwriters before the next day’s placement.

What Effect Does Book Building Have On IPO Prices?

A good IPO book-building process helps ensure proper market-based price discovery. Still, there is the risk that an IPO can be underpriced or overpriced when shares finally go public. This can lead to volatility, which IPO investors also need to be aware of. This is one reason why IPOs are considered high-risk endeavors.

Underpricing, the main risk to the issuer, happens when the offering price is materially below the share price on the first day of trading. With an underpriced IPO, a company is said to have left money on the table, while an overpriced IPO can have negative implications on the future price of a stock due to poor investor sentiment. Investors can buy IPO stock on Day One of trading in the secondary market, while qualified investors can purchase IPO shares before they begin trading in the open market.

While there is no surefire way to guarantee a good IPO price, the book-building IPO method offers quality pre-market price discovery customized to the issuer. It also reduces the risk for the underwriter. It can have high costs, however, and there is the risk that the IPO will end up being underpriced. The overall goal is to see a good and steady stock performance during and after the IPO.

The Takeaway

The book-building IPO process involves critical steps to ensure a stock goes public promptly with as few hiccups as possible.

There are different types of IPO book building, and the way an investment bank performs the process can impact IPO prices. The goal is for efficient price discovery on shares of the company looking to go public. Book building can also be used for secondary equity offerings.

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FAQ

What are the steps in book building?

There are 5 main steps in the book-building IPO process:

1. The issuing company hires an investment bank to underwrite the offering. The bank determines a share price value range and writes a prospectus to send to potential institutional investors.

2. The underwriting bank invites institutional investors to submit bids on how many shares they want to buy and at what price.

3. The book is built by sorting and summing demand for the shares to calculate a final IPO price. It’s known as the cutoff price.

4. The investment bank is required to disclose the details of submitted bids to the public.

5. Shares are allocated to accepted bidders.

What is 100% book building?

100% book building is a process in which 100% of the offering is done on a firm basis or is reserved for promoters and permanent employees of the issuing company.

Photo credit: iStock/PeopleImages

Sep

2023

What Is an IPO Pop?

By Laurel Tincher | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

An IPO pop occurs after a company goes public, when its stock price jumps higher on the first day of trading.

No matter how much preparation they’ve done, company executives and shareholders never really know how a stock will perform once it hits the market through its initial public offering (IPO).

While they of course hope to see some increase in price, a big spike — or IPO pop — could indicate that the underwriters underpriced the IPO.

Key Points

• An IPO pop occurs when a company’s stock spikes on its first day of trading and may indicate that underwriters didn’t properly price retail investor demand into the IPO price.

• In 2021, IPOs saw increases of 40% on average on the first trading day, but in the second quarter, companies were pricing below their expected ranges.

• Direct listings are an alternative to IPOs that may help avoid an IPO pop, but they aren’t as efficient at raising capital.

• Buying IPO stocks can be profitable, but it’s important to research the company before investing and to consider broad market trends.

• IPO pops are relatively common, and larger companies tend to have larger pops since they are in high demand.

IPO Pop Defined

An IPO pop occurs when a company’s stock spikes on its first day of trading. An IPO pop may be a sign that underwriters did not properly price retail investor demand into the IPO price.

For instance, if a company prices its shares at $47 in its IPO and the price goes to $48 or $50, that would be considered a normal and positive IPO increase. But if the stock jumped to $60, both the company and its early investors might believe an error occurred in the IPO pricing.

This is one of the reasons that IPO shares are considered highly risky. In many cases, historically, that initial price jump hasn’t lasted, and investors who bought on the way up have taken a hit on the way down.

Recommended: What Is an IPO?

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Problems Indicated by an IPO Pop

Many different factors go into pricing an IPO, including revenue, private investment amounts, public and institutional interest in investing. IPO underwriters try to find a share price that institutional investors will buy.

If the public thinks a company’s shares are more valuable than what early investors, underwriters, and executives thought, that means the company could have raised more money, increasing their own profit. Or they could have raised the same amount of money but with less dilution.

Also, when bankers price an IPO too low, that means their customers benefit — while company founders and VCs miss out on more profits.

If the share price soars on the first day, some investors will be happy, but it means the company could have raised more money if they had priced the stock higher from the start. It also means that existing investors could have given up a smaller percentage of their ownership for the same price.

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IPO Trends

In the past, some companies have seen significant IPO pops occur on their first trading day. But in many cases the market cooled down after the first quarter, with some high-profile companies seeing declines on their first day.

Take 2021 as an example; in that year there were a record number of IPOs in the market.

In the first quarter of 2021 many companies were pricing their IPOs at the top of their expected range, due to increased demand, an improving economy, and a strong stock market. Even after that, IPOs still saw increases of 40% on average on the first trading day.

But in the second quarter, companies were pricing below their expected ranges and some weren’t even reaching those prices on the first trading day. This made the public less eager to buy into IPOs. This type of volatility is common to IPOs, and another reason why investors should be cautious when investing in them.

There was also a boom in special-purpose acquisition corporations (SPACs), IPOs of shell companies that go public with the sole purpose of acquiring other companies.

💡 Quick Tip: Access to IPO shares before they trade on public exchanges has usually been available only to large institutional investors. That’s changing now, and some brokerages offer pre-listing IPO investing to qualified investors.

Direct Listings

Some companies have turned to direct listings as a way to try to avoid an IPO pop. In a direct listing, the company doesn’t have an IPO, they just list their stock and it starts trading in the market. There is a reference price set by a market maker for the stock in a direct listing, but it isn’t nearly as important as the price of a stock in an IPO. Although this can help avoid an IPO pop, it is not as efficient as an IPO as a means of raising capital.

Setting a price for an IPO is a key part of that fundraising strategy. A newer strategy companies are trying is raising a large amount of private capital just before going public, and then doing a direct listing instead of an IPO. The process gives a valuation to the stock price but in a different way from pricing shares for an IPO.

A third strategy is to direct list, and then do a fundraising round some time after the listing, giving the public a chance to establish the market price for the stock.

Do IPOs Usually Go Up or Down?

Although stocks increase an average of 18.4% on their first day of trading, 31% of IPOs decrease when they start to trade. Calculations of IPO profits show that almost 50% of IPOs decrease from their day-one trading price on their second day of trading. While IPO investing may seem like a great investment opportunity, IPOs remain a risky and unpredictable asset class.

Average IPO First Day Return

IPO pops are relatively common. Sometimes average first day returns increase significantly, such as during the dot-com bubble when the average pop was 60%. Larger companies generally have larger pops, since they are in high demand.

Determining the Right IPOs to Invest In

Buying IPO stocks can be profitable, but it also has risks. Just because a company is well known or there is a lot of publicity around its IPO doesn’t mean the IPO will be profitable. As with any investment, it’s important to research the market and each company before deciding to invest.

It’s also important to be patient and flexible, as individual investors don’t always have the ability to trade IPO shares. Or investors may have access at some point after the actual IPO. In addition, IPO shares can be limited.

If you’re interested in upcoming IPOs, it’s important to keep in mind that IPOs increase in price on the first day but quickly decrease again, and almost a third of IPOs decrease on their first listing day. Popular IPOs are more likely to increase, but they are also crowded with investors, so investors might not see their orders fulfilled.

When investing in IPOs through your brokerage account, it’s important to look at broad market trends in addition to individual company fundamentals. When the market is strong, IPOs tend to perform better. Also, when high-profile companies have unsuccessful IPOs, investors may become more wary about investing in upcoming IPOs.

Each sector has different trends and averages. Generally tech companies have higher first day returns than other types of companies, even though they’re also often unprofitable. Investors still want in on these IPOs because they may have strong future earnings potential.

Historically, some of the most successful tech stocks started out with negative earnings, so low earnings are not a strong indicator of future success or failure.

The Takeaway

As exciting as an IPO pop can be, it’s another example of how hard it is for individual investors to time the market. First, there’s no way to predict if a newly minted stock will have a spike after the IPO. Sometimes there is a pop and then the price plunges. This is one reason why IPOs are considered high-risk events.

Investors who find IPOs compelling may want to assess company fundamentals and other market conditions before investing in IPO stock.

Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

Photo credit: iStock/Olemedia

Sep

2023

What Is Yield to Call? Formula & Examples

By Samuel Becker | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off

An investor calculating yield to call is getting an idea of how much their overall bond returns will be. Specifically, yield to call refers to the total returns garnered by holding onto a bond until its call date. That doesn’t apply to all bonds, naturally, but can be very important for many investors to understand.

For investors who utilize bonds — callable bonds, in particular — as a part of their investment strategy, having a deep understanding of yield to call can be critical.

What Is Yield to Call?

As mentioned, yield to call (often abbreviated as “YTC”) refers to the overall return earned by an investor who buys an investment bond and holds it until its call date. Yield to call only concerns what are called callable bonds, which are a type of bond option.

With callable bonds, issuers have the option of repaying investors the value of the bond before it matures, potentially allowing them to save on interest payments. Callable bonds come with a call date and a call price, and the call date always comes before the bond itself matures.

A little more background: in a YTC scenario, ”yield” refers to the total amount of income earned over a period of time. In this case, the yield is the total interest a bond purchaser has accrued since purchasing the bond.

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How Yield to Call Works

If an investor buys a callable bond, they’ll see interest payments from the bond issuer up until the bond reaches maturity. The callable bond also has a call date, and the investor can choose to hold onto the bond until that date. If the investor does so, then YTC amounts to the total return the investor has received up until that date.

Yield to call is similar to yield to maturity, which is the overall interest accrued by an investor who holds a bond until it matures. But there are some differences, especially when it comes to how YTC is calculated.

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Yield to Call Formula

The raw yield to call calculation formula looks like this:

Yield to Call Formula:

Yield to call = (coupon interest payment + ( The call price – current market value ) ÷ time in years until call date ) ÷ (( call price + market value ) ÷ 2)

An investor should have all of the variables on-hand to do the calculation. Before we run through an example, though, here’s a breakdown of those variables:

• Yield to call: The variable we are trying to solve for!

• Coupon interest payment: How much the bondholder receives in interest payments annually.

• Call price: The predetermined call price of the callable bond in question.

• Current market value: The bond’s current value.

• Time until call date: The number of years until the bond’s first call date arrives

The yield-to-call calculation will tell an investor the returns they’ll receive up until their bond’s call date. A bond’s value is roughly equal to the present value of its future earnings or cash flows — or, the return, at the present moment, that the bond should provide in the future.

How to Calculate Yield to Call

It can be helpful to see how yield to call looks in a hypothetical example to further understand it.

Yield to Call Example

For this example, we’ll say that the current face value of the bond is $950, it has an annual coupon interest payment of $50, and it can be called at $1,000 in four years.

Here’s how the raw formula transforms when we input those variables:

Yield to call = ($50 + ( $1,000 – $950 ) ÷ 4 ) ÷ (( $1,000 + $950 ) ÷ 2)

YTC = $25 ÷ $975

YTC = 0.0256 = 2.56%

Interpreting Yield to Call Results

Once we know that our hypothetical, callable bond has a yield to call of 2.56%, what does that mean, exactly? Well, if you remember back to the beginning, yield to call measures the yield of a bond if the investor holds it until its call date.

The percentage, 2.56%, is the effective return an investor can expect on their bond, assuming it is called before it matures. It’s important to remember, too, that callable bonds can be called by the issuer at any time after the call date. So, just because there is an expected return, that doesn’t necessarily mean that’s what they’ll see.

Yield to call calculations make a couple of big assumptions. First, it’s assumed that the investor will not sell the bond before the call date. And second, the calculation assumes that the bond will actually be called on the call date. Because of these assumptions, calculations can produce a number that may not always be 100% accurate.

Yield to Call Comparisons

Two calculations that are similar to YTC are “yield to maturity,” and “yield to worst.” All three calculations are related and offer different methods for measuring the value that a bond will deliver to an investor.

A different type of yield calculation would be needed if you wanted to try and measure the overall interest you’d earn if you held a bond to maturity. That’s different from measuring the overall interest you’d earn by simply holding the bond until its call date.

Yield to Call vs Yield to Maturity

YTC calculates expected returns to a bond’s call date; yield to maturity calculates expected returns to the bond’s maturity date. Yield to maturity gives investors a look at the total rate of return a bond will earn over its entire life, not merely until its call date (if it has one).

Yield to Call vs Yield to Worst

Yield to worst, or “YTW,” measures the absolute lowest possible yield that a bond can deliver to an investor. Assuming that a bond has multiple call dates, the yield to worst is the lowest expected return for each of those call dates versus the yield to maturity. Essentially, it gives a “worst case” return expectation for bondholders who hold a bond to either its call date or for its entire life.

If a bond has no call date, then the YTW is equal to the yield to maturity — because there are no other possible alternatives.

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The Takeaway

Learning what yield to call is and how to calculate it, can be yet another valuable addition to your investing tool chest. For bond investors, YTC can be helpful in trying to figure out what types of returns you can expect, especially if you’re investing or trading callable bonds.

It may be that you never actually do these calculations, but having a cursory background in what the term yield to call means, and what it tells you, is still helpful information to keep in your back pocket.

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FAQ

What is the advantage of yield to call?

Yield to call helps investors get a better idea of what they can expect in terms of returns from their bond holdings. That can help inform their overall investment strategy.

How do you calculate yield to call in Excel?

Calculating yield to call can be done the old fashioned way, with a pen and paper, or in a spreadsheet software, of which there are several. An internet search should yield results as to how to calculate YTC within any one of those programs.

Is yield to call always lower than yield to maturity?

Generally, an investor would see higher returns if they hold a bond to its full maturity, rather than sell it earlier. For that reason, yield to call is generally lower than yield to maturity.

Photo credit: iStock/MicroStockHub

Sep

2023

Guide to Morningstar Ratings

By Rebecca Lake | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Morningstar is a highly regarded financial services firm whose mission revolves around providing investors with the research and tools, including Morningstar ratings, they need to make informed decisions in their portfolios.

Those tools, used by individual investors as well as institutional investors and financial advisors, include Morningstar fund ratings, which can help investors gauge how well various mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have performed over time.

What are Morningstar Ratings?

In simple terms, the Morningstar ratings system is a tool investors can use to compare financial securities such as mutual funds and ETFs. And if you’re wondering whether Morningstar ratings are legitimate, the answer is yes. Even FINRA, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, uses Morningstar ratings.

Morningstar reviews of mutual funds and ETFs reflect different metrics, depending on which ratings system is being applied. The main Morningstar ratings investors may turn to learn more about a particular investment are the Star Ratings and Analyst Ratings. (Morningstar also has a separate ratings system for individual stocks.)

These ratings can be helpful to investors for a variety of reasons — whether they’re trying to diversify their portfolio, or some research into socially responsible investing, and trying to find securities that fit their strategy.

How Morningstar Ratings Work

As Morningstar itself describes, the ratings system uses a methodology based on specific categories and risk-adjusted return measures. The company will only rate a fund that’s been around for more than three years. Morningstar also updates its ratings on a monthly basis.

You can use these ratings to select from the funds available in your 401(k), or to decide which funds to add to an IRA or a taxable brokerage account.

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The “Star Rating” Explained

The Morningstar Star Rating system, more simply referred to as star rating, is a quantitative ranking of mutual funds and ETFs. Introduced in 1985, the star rating looks backward at a fund’s past performance, then assigns a rating from one to five stars based on that performance.

As mentioned, Morningstar reviews ETFs and mutual funds with a record of more than three years, so newer funds do not receive a star rating until they’re reached this milestone. The rating methodology utilizes an enhanced Morningstar risk-adjusted return measure. Specifically, the star ratings system looks at each fund’s three-, five-, and 10-year risk-adjusted returns.

Star ratings can serve as a report card of sorts for comparing different funds, based on how they’ve performed historically. The Morningstar ratings are not forward-looking, as past performance is not a foolproof indicator of future behavior. But investors can use the ratings system as a starting off point for conducting fund research when deciding where to invest.

If you’re looking for a tool to help you compare mutual funds or exchange-traded funds at a glance based on past performance, the star rating system can help.

The “Analyst Rating” Explained

The Morningstar Analyst Rating takes a different approach to ranking funds and ETFs. Instead of looking backward, the qualitative analyst rating looks forward to assess a fund’s ability to outperform similar funds or a market benchmark. Rather than using stars, funds receive a rating of Gold, Silver, Bronze, Neutral or Negative, based on the analyst’s outlook for performance.

The firm does not update analyst ratings as frequently as star ratings. Morningstar reviews for analyst ratings are reevaluated at least every 14 months. The firm typically assigns analyst ratings to funds with the most interest from investors or the most assets.

When ranking funds, analysts look at three specific metrics:

• People

• Process

• Parent

Performance is also taken into account within the People and Process pillars. In order to earn a Gold, Silver or Bronze rating, an analyst must determine that an active fund can beat its underlying benchmark when adjusted for risk.

Generally speaking, these Morningstar reviews go into more detail, in terms of the analysis, ranking, and comparison of funds. If you’re an active trader or a buy-and-hold investor you might use the Morningstar analyst ratings to get a feel for what a particular mutual fund might do next, which can be helpful when an investor is, for example, trying to pick an ETF.

How Morningstar Measures Volatility

Morningstar uses a few key volatility measurements as it aims to minimize risk and maximize returns through strategic diversification. Chief among those measurements are standard deviation, mean, and the Sharpe ratio.
It’s a somewhat complicated process, but using these three measurements in tandem helps Morningstar get a handle on volatility and make appropriate ratings decisions.

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Example of a Morningstar Rating

Morningstar star ratings are free to access for investors on the company’s website, and it’s relatively easy to find plenty of examples of Morningstar ratings on the platform. For instance, to find a star rating for a particular fund or ETF you’d simply search for it using its name or ticker symbol. You can also view Morningstar ratings and picks for funds by category, such as small-cap funds or U.S. index funds.

Here’s an example of a Morningstar rating for the Calvert International Responsible Idx I fund (CDHIX). This fund, which is in the foreign large-blend category and is an index fund, has a four-star rating from Morningstar. You can see at a glance that the fund has an expense ratio of 0.29%, a minimum investment of $100,000 and just over $867 million in assets, as of August 2023.

Are Morningstar Ratings Accurate?

Morningstar fund ratings are designed to be a guide to use as you invest, rather than the absolute word on how well a fund is likely to perform. That’s to say that there’s always going to be risk involved when investing, so don’t expect any rating to be a sure-thing.

So, how well do Morningstar ratings perform over time and are they an accurate guide for investing?

According to Morningstar’s own analysis of its ratings system, the star ratings can be a useful jumping-off point for investors. That analysis resulted in three key findings:

• Funds with higher star ratings tend to have lower expense ratios and be cheaper for investors to own

• Higher rated funds tend to be less volatile and experience less dramatic downward swings when the market is in flux

• Funds that received higher star ratings tended to produce higher returns for investors compared to funds with lower ratings

The analysis didn’t look specifically at how star ratings and fund performance aligned through different bull and bear markets. But the ultimate conclusion Morningstar drew is that the Star Ratings tend to steer investors toward cheaper funds that are easier to own and stand a better chance of outperforming the market.

Use Expense Ratios

According to Morningstar, fees are one of the best predictors of future performance, at least for Star Ratings. For funds and ETFs, that means it’s important to consider the expense ratio, which represents the cost of owning a fund annually, calculated as a percentage of fund assets.

Actively managed funds typically carry higher expense ratios, as they require a fund manager to play an important role in selecting fund assets. Passively managed funds and ETFs, on the other hand, often have lower expense ratios.

So which one is better? The answer is that it all comes down to performance and returns over time. A fund with a higher expense ratio is not guaranteed to produce a level of returns that justify higher fees. Likewise, a fund that has a lower expense ratio doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s a poor investment just because it’s cheaper to own. Morningstar’s research found that the average one-star fund cost significantly more than the average five-star fund.

As you do your own research in comparing funds and ETFs, consider both performance and cost. This can help you find the right balance when weighing returns against fees.

How Should Investors Use Morningstar Ratings?

How much do Morningstar ratings matter in the grand scheme of things? The answer is, it depends on what you need from investment research tools.

Morningstar reviews of mutual funds and ETFs can be helpful for comparing investments, especially if you’re just getting started with the markets. Morningstar is a respected and trusted institution and both the Star and Analyst Ratings are calculated using a systematic approach. The reviews aren’t just thrown together or based on a best guess.

They’re designed to be a guide and not a substitute for professional financial advice. So, for instance, you may use them to compare two index funds that track the same or a similar benchmark. Or you may use them to compare two ETFs that are representative of the same market sector.

Risks of Morningstar Ratings

Morningstar Ratings are not an absolute predictor of how a mutual fund or ETF will perform in the next five minutes, five days, or five years. After all, there’s no way to perfectly predict how any investment will perform as the market changes day to day or even minute-to-minute.

One risk to avoid with Morningstar ratings is relying on them solely as your only research tool and not doing your own independent research. Again, that means checking expense ratios as well as looking at the underlying assets of a particular fund and its investment strategy (i.e. active vs. passive) to determine how well it aligns with your goals and risk tolerance.

Looking only at Morningstar reviews without doing your own due diligence could cause you to invest in funds that aren’t the best fit for your portfolio. Or you may overestimate how well a fund will perform, only to be disappointed later. For those reasons, it’s important to look under the hood, so to speak, to ensure that you fully understand what you’re investing in before buying in.

Morningstar Ratings for Funds

As discussed, Morningstar’s rating system mostly focuses on funds, including index funds, mutual funds, and ETFs. The company also has a ratings system for individual stocks, but its bread and butter is its focus on funds. And, as a quick refresher, it uses a data-driven, quantitative methodology for determining those rankings.

Also, as it bears repeating, a good Morningstar rating does not mean that an investment is risk-free.

Other Investment Risk Rating Providers

Morningstar is just one of many companies that offers investment ratings. An internet search will likely yield many results. But it’s a list that includes many familiar names, such as Bloomberg, Nasdaq Market Data Feeds, S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarketWatch, Thomson Reuters, and others.

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Having research tools can help you make educated decisions about where and how to invest. Morningstar Ratings are one tool you can use. When you’re ready to invest and apply the knowledge you’ve acquired, the next step is opening an online brokerage account. But keep in mind that there are many ratings services on the market, and that Morningstar’s ratings are far from the only research tool out there.

It’s also important for investors to keep in mind that all investments involve risk, whether they’re highly-rated or not. Be sure to do your due diligence before investing, but know there’s always a chance that things could turn sour on you.

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FAQ

How reliable are Morningstar ratings?

Morningstar ratings are generally considered to be high-quality in the financial industry, but that doesn’t mean that its ratings are always spot-on. All investing involves risk, and even a high rating doesn’t guarantee that an investment will pan out.

Is a Morningstar rating of “5” good?

Morningstar uses a scale of one to five “stars” to rate investments, with five stars being the highest, or best-quality investment. So, yes, a five-star rating is generally considered good, although not risk-free.

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Guide to Morningstar Ratings

What are Morningstar Ratings?

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The “Star Rating” Explained

The “Analyst Rating” Explained

How Morningstar Measures Volatility

Example of a Morningstar Rating

Are Morningstar Ratings Accurate?

Use Expense Ratios

How Should Investors Use Morningstar Ratings?

Risks of Morningstar Ratings

Morningstar Ratings for Funds

Other Investment Risk Rating Providers

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How reliable are Morningstar ratings?

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