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Opportunity Cost and Investments

The opportunity cost of an investment refers to the potential gain or loss incurred by not choosing to go with a different investment. Opportunity cost is a term or concept that doesn’t just apply to investing, and can be applied to other economic areas as well.

Investors at all income levels have a limited amount of funds to work with. And while some people are more risk-tolerant than others, considering the opportunity cost of choosing one investment over another will always be necessary.

Key Points

•   Opportunity cost involves the potential gains lost by choosing one investment over another.

•   The concept is theoretical and can be challenging to understand and apply.

•   Staying out of the market can result in high opportunity costs.

•   A simple formula can estimate opportunity cost: FO – CO, where FO is the return on the best foregone option, and CO is the return on the chosen option.

•   Time and effort, known as sweat equity, are additional factors to consider in investment decisions.

Opportunity Cost vs Risk

As noted, the concept of opportunity cost can be applied to almost any situation, not just those relating to financial matters. As it relates to investing, it’s especially important to consider applicable risks. But opportunity costs and risk are two different, albeit related, things.

Failing to consider the potential risks of an investment when trying to calculate opportunity cost could lead to an “apples-and-oranges” type of comparison.

Consider this: Someone wants to figure out the opportunity cost of investing in a penny stock rather than buying a U.S. Treasury bond. The latter are less risky investments, being 100% backed by the U.S. government.

Penny stocks, on the other hand, carry a high amount of risk, being volatile and having a real possibility of going to zero if the underlying company goes bankrupt.

If an investor thinks about opportunity cost in this example, without factoring in risk, they will choose the penny stock every single time. And without considering the risks involved, doing so would make sense.

Less risky investments, like Treasuries, tend to come with low returns. But, again, they’re low-risk assets, so investors should likely anticipate their expected returns to be low, as they don’t generate big returns. While a riskier investment like a penny stock might yield big gains, it comes with significant risk, and could also yield large losses.

In effect, there’s a tradeoff and inverse relationship between risk and potential reward or returns. Investing in the penny stock risks losing capital, while investing in Treasuries risks losing the larger gains.

What Is Opportunity Cost When Evaluating Investments?

There are two main types of opportunity cost as it relates to financial decisions: Explicit opportunity cost, and implicit opportunity cost.

The first type, explicit opportunity cost, is easy to calculate because it involves the objective value that an investor sacrifices when making one investment decision instead of another. The second type, implicit opportunity cost, can be harder to calculate because it’s more subjective.

Implicit opportunity costs tend to involve resources and a lost opportunity to generate additional income rather than a direct cost.

For example, say someone owns a second home in the Hamptons. This person loves vacationing in the Hamptons so much that they choose not to rent out the home, foregoing the significant revenue that doing so might bring in. That lost revenue represents the implicit opportunity cost of using the home as a luxurious vacation destination rather than a rental property.

How to Calculate Opportunity Cost

It’s important to remember that any attempt at this kind of calculation will be somewhat of an estimation because it’s impossible to predict with 100% certainty. But, for the purposes of trying to calculate opportunity cost, it becomes necessary to make some related assumptions as to risk and reward.

When a skilled financial professional wants to determine how to calculate opportunity cost, they might use a complex mathematical formula called the Net Present Value (NPV) formula. This formula can be calculated in a spreadsheet and includes specific business factors like free cash flow, interest rates, and the number of periods in the future in which free cash flow will happen.

For most individual investors, an all-out calculation using the NPV formula might be going a little overboard. The effort required could be unnecessary, and investors may not always have access to the required information.

However, some simple arithmetic can often work, too. The only required knowledge for such a calculation will be what an investor sacrifices by making one decision rather than another.

A Simple Opportunity Cost Formula

An opportunity cost example equation would look like this:

Opportunity Cost = FO – CO

Where FO is equivalent to the return on the best foregone option, and CO is equivalent to the return on the chosen option. In other words, subtracting the amount of money made on a chosen investment from the amount of money that would have been made on the other, not chosen, investment.

Beyond that, it can also be worthwhile to take into consideration the variables of time and sweat equity. Sweat equity refers to the work that might be required to maintain something. Likewise, time refers to the time a particular economic decision will require.

For example, investors who tend to be more self-directed and choose to do their own research will likely want to pick each specific security in their portfolios and how much capital they want to allocate to each position. That research requires sweat equity, but could lead to higher returns if done well.

Other investors may choose a more passive investment style and either put all of their available capital in a single ETF or use a robo-advisor that chooses security allocations for them. This method minimizes sweat equity but could potentially see lower returns.

When it comes to the simple math, let’s say an investor really likes Restaurant X. She typically eats three Restaurant X meals each week, costing about $10 each, for a total of about $120 per month.

Our Restaurant X fan could decide to cook her own meals three nights a week, with an approximate cost of $60 per month. She then invests the extra $60 she has now saved.

The opportunity cost in this random example is missing out on the Restaurant X experience. The gain would be having a little extra cash to invest each month.

The Takeaway

Opportunity costs in investing refer to the potential gains given up in exchange for choosing one thing over another. It’s theoretical and hypothetical, and can be tricky to grasp, but is an important concept in investing. In the long run, the opportunity cost of choosing to stay out of the market tends to be high. Would-be investors might miss out on potential gains.

Without having money work for itself and earn interest, dividends, or capital gains, it’s very difficult to build long-term wealth. That said, there are many factors to take into consideration when investing, and for some, it may be best to seek the advice of a financial professional for some guidance.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.

Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹


INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


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Can You Get A Student Loan With No Credit History?

If you’re considering borrowing student loans, you may be wondering if it’s possible to get a student loan without a credit history.

Yes, you can borrow a student loan with no credit history, and it’s possible to get student loans with no credit check. Federal student loans (except PLUS loans) don’t require a credit check.

Private lenders do, however, review an applicant’s credit history during the application process. Potential borrowers who don’t have a strong credit history may be able to add a cosigner to strengthen their application, but there are no guarantees.

Keep reading to learn more on getting a student loan with no credit history, including how it differs between federal and private student loans, and tips on building your credit score.

Key Points

•   You can get most federal student loans without a credit history, as most federal student loans, such as Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans, do not require a credit check.

•   Parent PLUS Loans, a type of federal loan, do require a credit check. Parents with adverse credit histories may need a cosigner or may not qualify for this type of loan.

•   Private student loans do necessitate a credit check. Private lenders assess credit history when evaluating loan applications.

•   Establishing credit during college can be advantageous. Actions like timely bill payments and maintaining a low credit utilization ratio can help build a positive credit history.

•   Private student loans do not offer the same borrower protections as federal loans. Therefore, it’s advisable to exhaust federal aid options before considering private loans.

Federal vs Private Student Loans

Student loans fall into two general categories: federal (offered by the government) and private (offered by banks and other lenders). There are options under each category that range from different eligibility requirements to fixed vs. variable interest rates. Here’s a look at the differences between the two types of loans.

Types of Federal Student Loans

If you’re searching for “student loans, no credit check,” federal student loans (aside from PLUS loans) fit that description. Federal student loans are funded by the U.S. Department of Education and are based on education costs and your current financial situation, not your credit history.

The most desirable type of federal loan, the Direct Subsidized Loan, has relatively low fixed interest rates that are set each year by the government.

Subsidization means that the government will pay for any interest that accrues on the loan while you’re in school at least half-time, as well as during your grace period and some deferral periods. Direct Subsidized Loans are awarded based on financial need and are only available to undergraduate students.

The other type of no-credit-required federal loan is the Direct Unsubsidized Loan. It also typically has low interest rates, but no subsidy means the interest starts to accrue as soon as the money is loaned, and borrowers are required to pay the interest that accrues. Unsubsidized loans are available to students at all levels of higher education and are therefore one of the most accessible types of student loans.

One advantage with both these types of federal student loans is repayment flexibility, including deferment, income-driven repayment plans, and forgiveness programs like Public Service Loan Forgiveness. If you’re trying to build your credit score, repayment options that could help keep you out of default are key.

Private Student Loans

Students also have the option of applying for private student loans, which are available through some banks, credit unions, or private lenders. The terms can be very different depending on the type of loan, whether you choose a fixed or variable interest rate, and your financial history — which includes things like your credit score.

If you have less-than-stellar credit, or not much of a credit history and income, you’ll likely need to apply with a cosigner, typically a family member or a close friend who guarantees to repay the loan in the event that you can’t. It’s important to choose a cosigner wisely. It should be someone with a solid financial history that you trust.

Recommended: A Complete Guide to Private Student Loans

Applying for Student Loans With FAFSA®

To start the federal student loan application process, fill out the FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid). Filling out the FAFSA is free, and it doesn’t commit you to any particular type of loan. The FAFSA is also the tool used by many schools to determine a student’s full financial aid award, including scholarships, grants, work-study, and federal student loans.

Applying for Private Student Loans

To get a private student loan, potential borrowers will apply directly with the private lender of their choosing. Each loan application may vary slightly by lender as will the terms and interest rates. Private student loans don’t have the same borrower protections that federal student loans offer, such as income-driven repayment plans or deferment or forbearance options. Therefore, they’re generally considered as a last resort, after all other sources of aid have been exhausted.

Parent PLUS Loans

Students aren’t the only ones who can apply for federal financial aid. Parents of undergrad students that are enrolled at least half-time can apply to receive aid on their behalf via the Parent PLUS Loan.

This is another type of unsubsidized federal loan, but it’s more restrictive in that both parents and children need to meet the minimum eligibility requirements. This type of federal student loan requires a credit check.

Like private loans, borrowers who don’t have optimal credit history may apply with a cosigner to guarantee a PLUS loan. And students are still typically able to seek additional unsubsidized loans for themselves to cover any gaps.

Tips for Building Credit

Entering college can be a smart time to start establishing credit. A borrower’s credit score could mean the difference between getting a good deal on a loan, or not getting a loan at all. Even a few points higher or lower might impact the interest rates a borrower may qualify for.

There are a number of sites that let you check your credit score for free and offer notifications if there are changes, so it’s easy to keep track of where you are.

The number that signifies “good” credit is between 670-739 for FICO Scores®. These scores are determined by factors such as the number of credit accounts a person has and how they are managed. One way to start building credit is to open some kind of credit account, and then make regular payments.

Paying bills on time, the credit mix you have, and your credit utilization ratio may all play a role in determining a credit score. While everyone’s circumstances are unique, try to make bill payments on time. Another general rule of thumb to aim for is to keep the credit utilization ratio under 30%.

Recommended: 10 Strategies for Building Credit Over Time

The Takeaway

Most federal student loans do not require a credit check and may be considered “no credit check” student loans. They are available to borrowers with no credit history. Parent PLUS Loans are one exception as they are federal student loans that do require a credit check.

Private student loans also require a credit check. Students with a limited credit history may have the option to apply with a cosigner if they are interested in borrowing a private student loan. As noted earlier, however, adding a cosigner does not necessarily guarantee approval for a loan.

If you’ve exhausted all federal student aid options, no-fee private student loans from SoFi can help you pay for school. The online application process is easy, and you can see rates and terms in just minutes. Repayment plans are flexible, so you can find an option that works for your financial plan and budget.


Cover up to 100% of school-certified costs including tuition, books, supplies, room and board, and transportation with a private student loan from SoFi.

FAQ

Can I get a student loan if I have no credit history?

Yes, it’s possible. Most federal student loans, such as Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans, do not require a credit check, making them accessible to students without established credit. However, private lenders typically assess credit history, so having no credit may necessitate a cosigner or result in higher interest rates.

Do federal student loans require a credit check?

Generally, no. Federal student loans like Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans do not require a credit check. However, Direct PLUS Loans, which are available to graduate students and parents, do require a credit check to determine eligibility.

How can I qualify for a private student loan without a cosigner?

Qualifying for a private student loan without a cosigner typically requires a good credit score and sufficient income. Some lenders may offer loans to students with limited credit history, but these often come with higher interest rates. Building credit through responsible financial habits can improve your chances of qualifying independently.


SoFi Private Student Loans
Please borrow responsibly. SoFi Private Student loans are not a substitute for federal loans, grants, and work-study programs. We encourage you to evaluate all your federal student aid options before you consider any private loans, including ours. Read our FAQs.

Terms and conditions apply. SOFI RESERVES THE RIGHT TO MODIFY OR DISCONTINUE PRODUCTS AND BENEFITS AT ANY TIME WITHOUT NOTICE. SoFi Private Student loans are subject to program terms and restrictions, such as completion of a loan application and self-certification form, verification of application information, the student's at least half-time enrollment in a degree program at a SoFi-participating school, and, if applicable, a co-signer. In addition, borrowers must be U.S. citizens or other eligible status, be residing in the U.S., Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, or American Samoa, and must meet SoFi’s underwriting requirements, including verification of sufficient income to support your ability to repay. Minimum loan amount is $1,000. See SoFi.com/eligibility for more information. Lowest rates reserved for the most creditworthy borrowers. SoFi reserves the right to modify eligibility criteria at any time. This information is subject to change. This information is current as of 4/22/2025 and is subject to change. SoFi Private Student loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. NMLS #696891 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

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SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.


Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

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How to Calculate a Dividend Payout Ratio

A dividend payout is the dividend amount a shareholder can expect, based on their number of shares. The dividend payout ratio is the ratio of total dividends paid to shareholders relative to the net income of the company.

Investors can use the dividend payout formula to gauge how much a company is paying to shareholders versus reinvesting in the company for growth, to pay off debt, and so on.

Some companies pay out some or all of their earnings as dividends; but some companies don’t make any dividend payments. If dividends are an important part of your investing strategy, you may also want to understand how different types of dividends are taxed.

Key Points

•   Some companies pay dividends, a percentage of earnings, to shareholders.

•   The dividend payout ratio is the amount of dividends relative to total net income.

•   Knowing the dividend payout ratio can help investors gauge the overall health of a company.

•   Dividend payout ratios vary widely by company. Some companies distribute some, all, or none of their earnings to shareholders.

•   Ordinary dividends are taxed as income; qualified dividends are taxed as capital gains.

Understanding Dividends and How They Work

Before calculating potential dividends, investors will want to familiarize themselves with what dividends are.

A dividend is when a company periodically gives its shareholders a payment in cash, or additional shares of stock, or property. The size of that dividend payment depends on the company’s dividend yield and how many shares you own.

Many investors look to buy stock in companies that pay dividends as a way to generate regular income, in addition to stock price appreciation. A dividend investing strategy is one way many investors look to make money from stocks. Investors can take their dividend payments in cash or reinvest them into their stock holdings.

Not all companies pay dividends, and those that do tend to be large, established companies with predictable profits — blue-chip stocks, for example. If an investor owns a stock or fund that pays dividends, they can expect a regular payment from that company — typically, each quarter. Some companies may pay dividends more or less often.



💡 Quick Tip: Look for an online brokerage with low trading commissions as well as no account minimum. Higher fees can cut into investment returns over time.

Pros and Cons of Investing in Dividend Stocks

Since dividend income can help augment investing returns, investing in dividend stocks — or stocks that tend to pay higher than average dividends — is popular among some investors. But engaging in a strategy of purchasing dividend stocks has its pros and cons.

The most obvious advantage is that investors will receive dividend payments and may also see stock appreciation from their holdings. Another benefit is that investors can set up their dividends to automatically reinvest, meaning that their holdings grow with no extra effort.

Potential drawbacks, however, are that dividend stocks may generate a higher tax burden, depending on the specific stocks. You’ll need to look more closely at whether your dividends are “ordinary” or “qualified,” and dig a little deeper into qualified dividend tax rates to get a better idea of what you might end up owing.

Also, stocks that pay higher dividends often don’t see as much appreciation as some other growth stocks — but investors do reap the benefit of a steady, if small, payout.

What Is the Dividend Payout Ratio?

The dividend payout ratio expresses the percentage of net income that a company pays to shareholders as dividends. Ratios vary widely by company. Some may pay out all of their net income, while others may hang on to a portion to reinvest in the company or pay off debt.

Generally speaking, a healthy range for the dividend payout ratio is from 35% to 55%. There are certain circumstances in which a lower ratio might make sense for a company.

For example, a relatively young company that plans to expand might reinvest a larger portion of its profits into growth. A company’s dividend ratio might be lower or higher than that range. It’s important to consider dividend payouts in the greater context of the company itself.

How to Calculate a Dividend Payout

Calculating your potential dividend payout is fairly simple: It requires that you know the dividend payout ratio formula, and simply plug in some numbers.

Dividend Payout Ratio Formula

The simplest dividend payout ratio formula divides the total annual dividends by net income, or earnings, from the same period. The equation looks like this:

Dividend payout ratio = Dividends paid / Net income

Again, calculating the payout ratio is only a matter of doing some plug-and-play with the appropriate figures.

Dividend Payout Ratio Calculation Example

Here’s an example of how to calculate dividend payout using the dividend payout ratio.

•   If a company reported net income of $120 million and paid out a total of $50 million in dividends, the dividend payout ratio would be $50 million/$120 million, or about 42%. That means that the company retained about 58% of its profits.

Or, to plug those numbers into the formula, it would look like this:

~42% = 50,000,000 / 120,000,000

•   An alternative dividend payout ratio calculation uses dividends per share and earnings per share as variables:

Dividend payout ratio = Dividends per share / Earnings per share

A third formula uses retention ratio, which tells us how much of a company’s profits are being retained for reinvestment, rather than paid out in dividends.

Dividend payout ratio = 1 – Retention ratio

•   You can determine the retention ratio with the following formula:

Retention ratio = (Net income – Dividends paid) / Net income

You can find figures including total dividends paid and a company’s net income in a company’s financial statements, such as its earnings report or annual report.

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Why Does the Dividend Payout Ratio Matter?

Dividend stocks often play an important part in individuals’ investment strategies. As noted, dividends are one of the primary ways stock holdings earn money — investors also earn money on stocks by selling holdings that have appreciated in value.

Investors may choose to automatically reinvest the dividends they do earn, increasing the size of their holdings, and therefore, potentially earning even more dividends over time. This can often be done through a dividend reinvestment plan.

But it’s important to be able to know what the ratio results are telling you so that you can make wise decisions related to your investments.

Interpreting Dividend Payout Ratio Results

Learning how to calculate dividend payout and use the payout ratio is one thing. But what does it all mean?

On a basic level, the dividend payout ratio can help investors gain insight into the health of dividend stocks. For instance, a higher ratio indicates that a company is paying out more of its profits as dividends, and this may be a sign that it is established — or not necessarily looking to expand in the near future.

On the other hand, it could also indicate that a company isn’t investing enough in its own growth.

Lower ratios may mean a company is retaining a higher percentage of its earnings to expand its operations or fund research and development, for example. These stocks may still be a good bet, since these activities may help drive up share price or lead to large dividends in the future.

💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.

Dividend Sustainability

Paying attention to trends in dividend payout ratios can help you determine a dividend’s sustainability — or the likelihood a company will continue to pay dividends of a certain size in the future. For example, a steadily rising dividend payout ratio could indicate that a company is on a stable path, while a sudden jump to a higher payout ratio might be harder for a company to sustain.

That’s knowledge that may be put to use when trying to manage your portfolio.

It’s also worth noting that there can be dividend payout ratios that are more than 100%. That means the company is paying out more money in dividends than it is earning — something no company can do for very long. While they may ride out a bad year, they may also have to lower their dividends, or suspend them entirely, if this trend continues.

Dividend Payout Ratio vs Dividend Yield

The dividend yield is the ratio of a stock’s dividend per share to the stock’s current price:

Dividend yield = Annual dividend per share/Current stock price

As an example, if a stock costs $100 and pays an annual dividend of $7, the dividend yield will be $7/$100, or 7%.

Like the dividend payout ratio, dividend yield is a metric investors can use when comparing stocks to understand the health of a company. For example, high dividend yields might be a result of a quickly dropping share price, which may indicate that a stock is in trouble. Dividend yield can also help investors understand whether a stock is valued well and whether it will meet the investor’s income needs or fit with their overall investing strategy.

Dividend yield can also help investors understand whether a stock is valued well and whether it will meet the investor’s income needs or fit with their overall investing strategy.

Dividend Payout Ratio vs Retention Ratio

As discussed, the retention ratio tells investors how much of a company’s profits are being retained to be reinvested, rather than used to pay investors dividends. The formula looks like this:

Retention ratio = (Net income – Dividends paid) / Net income

If we use the same numbers from our initial example, the formula would look like this:

(120,000,000 – 50,000,000) / 120,000,000 = ~58%

This can be used much in the same way that the dividend payout ratio can, as it calculates the other side of the equation — how much a company is retaining, rather than paying out. In other words, if you can find one, you can easily find the other.

The Takeaway

The dividend payout ratio is a calculation that tells investors how much a company pays out in dividends to investors. Since dividend stocks can be an important component of an investment strategy, this can be useful information to investors who are trying to fine-tune their strategies, especially since different types of dividends have different tax implications.

In addition, the dividend payout ratio can help investors evaluate stocks that pay dividends, often providing clues about company health and long-term sustainability. It’s different from other ratios, like the retention ratio or the dividend yield.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.

Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

FAQ

How do you calculate your dividend payment?

To calculate your exact dividend payment, you’d need to know how many shares you own, a company’s net income, and the number of total outstanding shares. From there, you can calculate dividend per share, and multiply it by the number of shares you own.

Are dividends taxed?

Yes, dividends are taxed, as the IRS considers them a form of income. There may be some slight differences in how they’re taxed, but even if you reinvest your dividend income back into a company, you’ll still generate a tax liability by receiving dividend income.

What is a good dividend payout ratio?

Dividend payout ratios can range from 0% to 100% (or more, in some cases). A healthy range is generally considered to be between 35% to 55%. This can indicate a sustainable payout for a company, and provide confidence that cash flow is being distributed across priorities.


INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Third Party Trademarks: Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Center for Financial Planning, Inc. owns and licenses the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®

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Tail Risk, Fat Tails, and What They Mean for Investors


Editor's Note: Options are not suitable for all investors. Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Please see the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Tail risk refers to the possibility that an investment could outperform or underperform its average return by a large amount. While many investors worry primarily about left-tail risk — the possibility of large losses — extreme gains can also wreak havoc with some types of strategies.

The term “tail risk” refers to the tails on a bell curve: While the fat middle of the bell curve represents the most probable returns, the tails — both positive and negative — represent the least likely outcomes.

Key Points

•   Tail risk refers to the tails of a bell curve: i.e., the extremes of an asset’s price movements.

•   Tail risk is measured by standard deviations: i.e., how far a price varies from the mean.

•   Tail risk describes the risk that an investment will fall or rise by more than three standard deviations from its mean price.

•   Some financial models are based on the idea of normal price distributions, but in reality, tail events impact market returns.

•   While many investors are concerned about left-tail risk, which indicates the probability of losses, extreme gains could be problematic as well.

What Is Tail Risk?

Tail risk is defined by a concept called standard deviation. As a metric, standard deviation shows how widely the price of an asset fluctuates above and below its average. For a volatile stock, the standard deviation will be high, while the standard deviation for a stock with a steady value will be low — because the price doesn’t vary much from its mean.

Standard deviation is an important number that investors use to understand how historically volatile a stock is, as well as the level of volatility they can project for it in the future. That projection is based on the underlying assumption that the price changes of a stock will follow the pattern of what’s considered a normal distribution.

What is a normal distribution of returns?

Normal distribution is a statistical term used to describe the probability of an event, and it shapes the bell curve. If you flip a coin 10,000 times, how often will it land on heads or tails? Each time, there is a 50% probability it will land on heads or tails, and the curve describes the likelihood that those 10,000 flips will come out 50/50. The fat middle of the curve says it will be close to 50/50, but there are extremely low probabilities at the low (or skinny) ends of the bell curve that it could be more like 80/20 heads or 80/20 tails.

If you flip a coin 10,000 times, how often will it land on heads or tails? Each time, there is a 50% probability it will land on heads or tails, and the curve describes the likelihood that those 10,000 flips will come out 50/50. The fat middle of the curve says it will be close to 50/50, but there are extremely low probabilities at the extremes of the bell curve that it could be more like 80/20 heads vs. tails or tails vs. heads.

The normal distribution approach to probability predicts that a stock selling at a mean price of $45 with a $5 standard deviation is 95% certain to sell between $35 and $55 at the close of that day’s market.

“Tail risk” is used to describe the risk that an investment will fall or rise by more than three standard deviations from its mean price. To continue the example, the hypothetical stock $45 stock has entered the domain of tail risk if, at the end of the trading day, it is priced at $30 or below, or at $60 or above.


💡 Quick Tip: Before opening any investment account, consider what level of risk you are comfortable with. If you’re not sure, start with more conservative investments, and then adjust your portfolio as you learn more.

What are Fat Tail Risks?

Unpredictable events can be predictable in some senses, in that they happen in the markets on a regular basis. And those markets, such as the one following the onset of the pandemic in early 2020, exhibit much “fatter” tails. Another period characterized by having an extremely fat tail was the 2008 Financial Crisis.

They’re called “fat tails” because the outcomes that had been on the extremes were suddenly happening, instead of the ones previously considered probable. This condition is also called by the mathematical term leptokurtosis. As a general rule, because they deviate so wildly from the expected norm, fat tail events present great risk as well as great opportunities for investors.

Tail Risk Strategy

Financial models such as Harry Markowitz’s modern portfolio theory (MPT) or the Black-Scholes Merton option pricing model, employ the assumption that the returns of a given asset will remain between the mean and three standard deviations.

The assumptions made in these long-term market projections can help with planning. But they’re not realistic regarding how investors receive their market returns over the long term. Rather, the bulk of their returns, no matter how diversified their portfolio, are largely the result of positive tail events. The power of tail events over long periods is one reason that experts tell investors to stay in the markets during fat-tail periods of volatility, even if it is stressful at the time.

Why Investors Hedge Tail Risks

Left-tail events also have the potential to have an extremely negative impact on portfolios. That’s why many investors hedge their portfolios against these events — aiming to improve long-term results by reducing risk. But these strategies necessarily come with short-term costs.

Downside Protection

One strategy that’s designed to protect against tail risks involves taking short positions that counterbalance the rest of a portfolio, also known as buying downside protection. For example, if an investor is heavily invested in U.S. equities, they may consider investing in derivatives on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), which correlates to the inverse of the S&P 500 index. (Using short strategies is also one way to invest during a bear market.)

Another way to hedge by buying downside protection is to purchase out-of-the-money put options. When the assets connected to these put options go down, the put options become more valuable. Granted, buying those options costs money, but it can be a strategy to consider for investors who believe the markets are likely to be volatile for a while.

Tail Risk Parity

Tail risk parity is a way to structure a portfolio based on the expectations that events that have a negative impact on one asset class will likely be a boon to others. This requires looking at each asset class in terms of how it might fare in the event of a particular crisis, and then finding an asset class that would likely do well in that same circumstance, and then keeping them in balance within your portfolio.

Managed Futures Funds

Other investors who want to trim their exposure to tail risks may invest in managed futures funds. These funds buy long and short futures contracts in equity indexes, and can thrive during times of crisis in the markets.

The Takeaway

A tail risk is the risk that an event with a low likelihood of happening could happen with any given asset. There are a few different ways to mitigate the impact of tail risk in an investment portfolio, but for long-term investors, it can be helpful to keep in mind that tail risk is responsible for most returns over time.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.

Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

FAQ

What is left-tail risk and right-tail risk?

Left- and right-tail risk refer to the likelihood of dramatic price changes at the extreme ends of the bell curve, both losses (left tail) and gains (right tail).

How do you limit tail risk?

While investment outcomes can’t be predicted, investors can seek to mitigate tail risk by investing in less volatile securities, and possibly hedging downside risk by taking short positions.

What is a tail event?

A tail event refers to a statistically unlikely outcome that can drive an asset’s price outside of its normal range.


INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.

Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Understanding The Stock Market Index

Understanding the Stock Market Index

A stock market index measures the performance of a particular “basket” of stocks, representing a market segment based on factors such as market capitalization, industry, or region. Investors use these market indexes in many ways, such as to analyze current market conditions, identify industry trends, and invest in index funds.

To help you better understand how market indexes work and how investors use them to their advantage, here’s a deep dive into the inner workings of stock market indexes.

Key Points

•   Stock market indexes track selected stocks, offering insights into market segments or the overall economy.

•   Indexes use various weighting methods, including price, capitalization, value, and equal.

•   Major market segments are represented by the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

•   Index funds provide investors with diversification and low barriers to entry.

•   Index investing often involves simple management and may yield better long-term returns compared to active investing.

What is a Market Index?

A stock market index tracks a specific group of stocks in a market segment, like a specific industry or region. Indexes can tell investors and financial institutions a lot about specific investments, the sector as a whole, even the overall economy. Here are a few insights investors look to indexes for:

•  To understand how the economy is performing

•  To help with trend forecasting

•  To create benchmarks to evaluate a particular investment’s profitability

Take, for example, the S&P 500, which tracks the 500 largest publicly-traded U.S. companies in the stock market. Each company is carefully selected to embody every primary industry, thus creating a replication of the market as a whole. Conceptually, an investor might look at the past performance of the S&P 500 to assess whether the stock market is emerging or receding.

How Stock Market Indexes Work

Indexes are made up of hundreds and sometimes thousands of stocks. However, the index doesn’t evenly assess each stock. Depending on what stocks have higher weight in an index, their performance may have more or less influence on how the index performs overall.

There are a few ways indexes are typically weighted:

•  Price-weighted: In price-weighted indexes, the stocks with the higher price will have a greater influence on overall performance than those with lower prices.

•  Capitalization-weighted: These indexes look at the total value (or market capitalization) of each stock’s outstanding share to determine its weighted value, giving smaller market caps a lower percentage weighting, and higher market caps a larger one.

•  Value-weighted: A light math formula is employed in this type of index, where the price of the stock is multiplied by the number of outstanding shares.

•  Equal-weighted: In this index type, all stocks are given equal weight, regardless of market cap, value, or price.

Types of Stock Market Indexes

While there are many indexes investors and financial professionals can follow, here are a few examples of stock market indexes.

•  S&P 500: The S&P 500 measures the largest publicly-traded U.S. stocks. Financial professionals use the performance of the S&P 500 as a basis to compare other investment options.

•  NASDAQ Composite Index: The NASDAQ Composite Index measures over 3,000 global and U.S. stocks registered on the NASDAQ stock market. Because it covers so many stocks, it is one of the most followed and quoted indexes. Some of the types of stocks include common stock and real estate trusts (REITs).

•  Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow Jones Industrial Average, commonly known as the DJIA, measures 30 US-based blue-chip stocks that are often referred to as the foundation of the U.S. economy. These stocks usually include companies in market segments of the economy, with the exception of transportation and utilities (the Dow Jones has separate indexes for those two sectors).

•  Russell 2000 Index: In contrast to the S&P 500, which follows large-cap stocks, the Russell 2000 follows 2000 of the smallest companies in the U.S. market (or small-cap stocks), making it a good benchmark for small, publicly-traded companies.

How to Invest in a Stock Market Index

Although it’s possible to purchase all stocks within a particular index, this method might be too time-consuming, complicated, and potentially expensive. Another option is to invest in ETFs or index funds that attempt to replicate indexes’ performance, known as an index fund. This investment strategy is often referred to as index investing.

With index investing, investors can effortlessly access index funds. By investing in index funds, they can also follow some common investing pillars, such as diversification. For example, investing in an index fund helps investors exercise a diversification strategy instead of a strategy centered around stock-picking and market timing.

Advantages of Investing in a Stock Market Index

As an investment strategy, index investing has certain benefits that may attract investors. These are the big ones.

Index Advantage: Simple Investment Management

By investing in a stock market index, investors may earn better returns with minimal effort, making index investing an easier way to manage their investments.

Investing in a stock market index is typically considered a passive investing strategy, where investors buy and hold securities to hopefully capitalize on long-term gains. Conversely, active investors buy and sell securities with the intent to beat the market or some form of index returns.

Because active investors are more hands-on, it’s easy to assume that they may reap higher returns than what the average index investor would see. But that’s not necessarily the case. In addition to most actively managed funds underperforming their passive investing counterparts, active investing requires a lot of time and analysis, and is often very challenging.

Index Advantage: Diversification

Diversification is considered by some to be one of the vital building blocks of a thorough investment strategy. With diversification, investors spread their investment across various assets instead of putting all of their money into a single security.

Since investments may perform differently in dissimilar economic environments, diversification may help investors minimize their risk exposure. In other words, if one investment drops in value, investors still have other investments to potentially make up for the loss.

Index Advantage: Minimal Barriers to Entry

For investors on a strict budget, it might be challenging to invest in more than just a few companies. However, by investing in a stock market index, they have exposure to a large assortment of stocks using the same amount of cash.

What’s more, investors don’t need the assistance of a money manager or financial advisor to invest in an index. That said, it’s still essential to review any related fees and costs. While indexes tend to have lower taxes and fees, it’s generally a good idea to review all costs involved in any investment before moving forward.

Disadvantages of Investing in Stock Market Indexes

Few things in life are perfect, and that includes investments. Here are some common disadvantages of investing in stock market indexes.

Index Disadvantage: Not a Short-Term Investment Strategy

Because indexes follow the market, their value increases incrementally, making them a better long-term investment strategy than short-term. Investors may also see fluctuations in returns, since they’ll go through various business cycles, which means that at times, investors may see very small, if any, increases to their portfolios.

Index Disadvantage: They Don’t Fully Follow a Certain Index

Stock market indexes may closely chart the index they track, but they may not perform exactly how the entire index performs. This is because indexes typically don’t include all of the stocks within a particular index; they only include a snapshot of the index as a whole. Thus, the index fund can’t wholly mimic the performance of the entire index.

However, while the index doesn’t directly mimic a stock market’s performance, it tends to have similar price fluctuations. So, if the market increases, typically the index will as well.

The Takeaway

The stock market index is a useful way for investors and analysts to get a sense of how a certain segment of the market is performing — whether that’s the top 500 publicly traded large-cap US companies, or the bottom 2000 small-cap ones. It’s also a way for investors to diversify their portfolios in one move, by investing in an index fund or ETF.

For investors who are interested, the government recommends reviewing all of the information available on a particular index, including the fund’s prospectus and most recent shareholder report. You may also want to identify the fees, your investment goals, and the investment risk of investing in a particular index.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.

Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

S&P 500 Index: The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S. It is not an investment product, but a measure of U.S. equity performance. Historical performance of the S&P 500 Index does not guarantee similar results in the future. The historical return of the S&P 500 Index shown does not include the reinvestment of dividends or account for investment fees, expenses, or taxes, which would reduce actual returns.
Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


¹Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Probability percentage is subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

Third Party Trademarks: Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Center for Financial Planning, Inc. owns and licenses the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®

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