invest Archives | Page 59 of 209

Sep

2023

What Are Capital Expenditures?

By Rebecca Lake | Financial Independence, Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Capital expenditures, or CapEx, refers to the money a company spends or invests to promote its future growth. This is different from operating expenditures, which deal with the day-to-day costs of running a business. Both show up on a business accounting statement, and both matter for maintaining a healthy bottom line.

From an investment perspective, understanding capital expenditures and how a company spends its money can be useful for evaluating stocks when deciding where to invest. More specifically, the capital expenditure formula is often part of a fundamental analysis approach to gauge a company’s overall financial health and stability. Understanding how to calculate capital expenditures can be helpful when comparing stocks.

Capital Expenditures: Definition & Overview

Here’s a simple definition of capital expenditure: A capital expenditure is any amount of money that a company spends to further its growth.

Capital expenditures typically include the purchase, improvement, or maintenance of physical assets, though it can also refer to intangible assets, such as patents or trademarks. It includes assets that a company will own over more than one accounting period, many of which can depreciate in value over time.

Types of Capital Expenditures

The type of capital expenditures a company has depends on the industry it belongs to and the nature of its business. So, if you’re sector investing, the analyses may vary. Generally, capital expenditure examples can include:

• Land

• Buildings or warehouses

• Equipment

• Machinery

• Business vehicles

• Computer hardware and/or software

• Furniture or fixtures

• Patents

• Licenses

Capital expenditures are most often long-term investments that have a shared goal: to help promote or further business growth. For example, a manufacturing company may decide to upgrade its equipment to speed up production and increase efficiency. The return on that investment comes later, when the company increases its output and generates bigger profits.

Capital Expenditures vs. Operating Expenditures

In accounting, capital expenditures are separate from a company’s operating expenditures. An operating expenditure is money a company spends to maintain normal business operations.

Examples of operating expenditures include:

• Rent or lease payments for business property

• Utilities

• Insurance

• Employee payroll

• Inventory

• Marketing costs

• Office supplies

Bottom-up investors use both capital expenditures and operating expenditures to measure how a company spends its money, but it’s important to avoid confusing them. In a nutshell, capital expenditures represent long-term investments in assets that will be used in the future, while the operating expenditures represent short-term outlays.

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How to Calculate Capital Expenditures

Companies calculate capital expenditures and include it on their cash flow statements under the section noted for investing activities. If you have access to a company’s cash flow statement or other key company financial information, you wouldn’t necessarily need to calculate capital expenditures because the relevant numbers would already be included.

But if you don’t have cash flow information available, or you simply want to do the math on your own, there’s a capital expenditures formula you can use. This formula is simple, though it does require that you have certain information about a company’s financial situation, including:

• Depreciation and amortization for capital expenditure assets

• Current period PP&E (Property, Plant & Equipment)

• Prior period PP&E

Property, Plant & Equipment refers to assets listed on a company’s balance sheet. In simpler terms, these are the assets that help generate revenue and profits for the business. So again, this can include things like equipment, machinery, vehicles, office equipment or land. Of those assets, land is the only one that typically doesn’t depreciate in value over time.

If you have these three pieces of information, you can then apply the capital expenditures formula. The formula looks like this:

CapEx = Current period PP&E – Prior period PP&E + Current period depreciation

Here’s how it works using hypothetical numbers. Say you’re evaluating a company that has a current period PP&E of $70,000, a prior period PP&E of $50,000 and $20,000 in current period depreciation. Your capital expenditures formula would look like this:

CapEx = $70,000 – $50,000 + $10,000
CapEx = $30,000

These calculations are relatively easy to do if you have all the relevant details from a company’s balance sheet. Once you can calculate capital expenditures, you can use the formula to evaluate investments.

Capital Expenditures and Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is one strategy for comparing investments and it’s typically used when investing for the long-term. With this type of analysis, the emphasis is on what makes a company financially healthy. This is something you may be interested in when trying to evaluate a stock appropriately and decide whether to invest in it.

A fundamental analysis approach considers a company’s assets and liabilities. But it also utilizes certain financial ratios that measure how money moves in and out of the company. Some of the most important ratios include:

• Price to earnings (P/E) ratio

• Earnings per share (EPS)

• Current ratio

• Quick ratio

• Return on equity (ROE)

• Book-to-value ratio

• Projected earnings growth (PEG)

All of these ratios measure a company’s value, which is important if you’re using a value investing approach. The goal there is to identify companies that have been undervalued by the market but have long-term growth potential. By investing in these companies and holding on to them, investors can benefit from price appreciation as they rise in value over time.

So where do capital expenditures fit in?

In terms of gauging a company’s value, capital expenditures offer insight into projected growth over the long-term. When a company regularly invests money in purchasing or upgrading assets, that can be a sign of financial strength and an eventual increase in value. On the other hand, a company pulling back on capital expenditures may hint at cash flow struggles that are impeding future growth.

One thing that’s important to keep in mind is that capital expenditures aren’t a foolproof indicator of a company’s long-term growth potential. It’s possible that a company may spend money with good intentions, only to have them backfire.

In an earlier example, we mentioned a manufacturing company purchasing new equipment to boost production. If that investment doesn’t pan out as expected–if, for example, the equipment requires constant maintenance and repairs that eat into profits or it falls short of expectations for increasing production speed–that could inhibit the company’s growth plans.

The Takeaway

Capital expenditures can be particularly helpful to investors if you favor a value investing approach or you lean toward buy-and-hold investing. Understanding how a company is investing in itself for the long-term can help you decide whether it makes sense as part of your portfolio.

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SOIN0623026

Sep

2023

How Time-Weighted Rate of Return Measures Your Investment Gains

By Samuel Becker | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

One of the most important and most common methods investors use to measure their returns is the time weighted rate of return formula. That’s because the time-weighted rate of return measures a compound rate of growth.

The time-weighted rate of return incorporates the impact of transactions such as portfolios rebalancing, contributions, and withdrawals. That leaves investors with a clearer picture of their portfolio’s overall performance.

What Is the Time-Weighted Rate of Return?

Starting with the basics, a return on investment (ROI) is a measure of how much money investments earn, or how much they’ve grown in value. Returns can be positive or negative (if a stock loses value following its purchase, for example). But obviously, investors make decisions with the goal of earning positive returns.

A rate of return, then, is a measure of the pace at which investments are accruing value, expressed as a percentage. The higher the rate of return, the better. Essentially, it’s a measure of a portfolio’s or investment’s performance over time. Rates of return can be calculated for certain time periods, such as a month or a year, and can be helpful when comparing different types of investments.

But investment portfolios are rarely static. Many investors make contributions or withdrawals to their portfolios on a regular basis. Many people contribute to their 401(k) with each paycheck, for example, or rebalance when market moves throw their asset allocation out of whack.

During these transactions, investors are buying and selling investments at different prices and times based on their investing strategy. That can make it more difficult and complicated to calculate a portfolio’s overall rate of return.

That’s where the time-weighted rate of return formula becomes useful. In short, the time-weighted rate of return formula takes into account a portfolio’s cash flows, and bakes in their effect on the portfolio’s overall returns. That gives investors a better, more accurate assessment of their portfolio’s performance.

That’s why the time-weighted rate of return calculation is, for many in the financial industry, the standard formula for gauging performance, over both the short- and the long-term.

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The Time-Weighted Rate of Return Formula

The time-weighted rate of return formula can look intimidating for even seasoned investors, but it’s an important step in building and maintaining an investment portfolio. But like many other financial formulas, once the variables are identified, it’s a matter of plug-and-play to run through the calculation.

First, let’s take a look at the basic portfolio return calculation:

Basic portfolio return = (Current value of portfolio – initial value of portfolio) ÷ initial value

While this formula provides a value, it assumes that an investor made one investment and simply left their money in-place to grow. But again, investors tend to make numerous investments over several time periods, limiting this calculation’s ability to tell an investor much about their strategy’s effectiveness.

That’s where the time-weighted rate of return comes in. In essence, the time-weighted formula calculates returns for a number of different time periods — usually additional purchases, withdrawals, or sales of the investment.

It then “weights” each time period (assigns them all roughly equal importance, regardless of how much was invested or withdrawn during a given period). Then, the performance of each period is included in the formula to get an overall rate of return for a specified period.

Calculating the time-weighted rate of return over the course of a year, for instance, would include the performance from each individual month. And, yes, that’s a lot of math. Computers and software programs can help, but it’s also doable the old-fashioned way.

This is what the time-weighted rate of return formula looks like:

Time-weighted return = [(1 + RTP1)(1 + RTP2)(1 + RTPn)] – 1

There are variables needed to calculate the equation:

n = Number of time periods, or months
RTP = Return for time period (month) = (End value – initial value + cash flow) ÷ (initial value + cash flow)
RTPn = Return for the time period “n”, depending on how many time periods there are

Let’s break it down again, and assume we’re trying to calculate the time-weighted return over three months. That would involve calculating the return for each individual month, three in all. Then, multiplying those returns together — “weighting” them — to arrive at an overall, time-weighted return.

How to Calculate Time-Weighted Rate of Return

To run through an example, assume we want to calculate a three-month, time-weighted return. An investor invests $100 in their portfolio on January 31. On February 15, the portfolio has a value of $102, and the investor makes an additional deposit of $5. At the end of the three-month period on April 30, the portfolio contains $115.

For this calculation, we wouldn’t think of our time periods as merely months. Instead, the time periods would be split in two — one for when a new deposit was made. So, there was the initial $100 deposit that would constitute a time period that ends on February 15. Then a second time period, when the $5 deposit was made, which constitutes a second time period.

With this information, we can make the calculation. That includes calculating the return for each time period during our three-month stretch. So, for time period one, the basic formula looks like this:

Return for time period = (End value – initial value + cash flow) ÷ (initial value + cash flow)

Now, we plug in our variables and calculate. Remember, there was no additional cash flow during this first period, so that won’t be included in this first calculation.

Time period 1:
($102 – $100) ÷ $100 = 0.02, or 2%

Then, do the same to calculate time period two’s return:

Time period 2:
[$115 – ($102 + $5)] ÷ ($102 + $5) = 0.074, or 7.4%

Now, take the returns from these two time periods and use them in the time-weighted rate of return formula:

Time-weighted return = [(1 + RTP1)(1 + RTP2)(1 + RTPn) – 1

With the variables — remember to properly use percentages!

TWR = [(1 + 0.02) x (1 + 0.074)] – 1 = 0.95, or 9.5%

So, the time-weighted return over this three-month stretch (which included two time periods for our calculation), is 9.5%. If we had simply done a basic return calculation, we’d reach a different number:

Basic portfolio return = (Current value of portfolio – initial value of portfolio) ÷ initial value
$115 – $100 ÷ $100 = 0.15, or 15%

That 15% figure is too high, because it doesn’t account for cash flow. In this case, that was a $5 deposit made in mid-February. The basic return formula folds that into the overall return figure. The time-weighted calculation gives us a more accurate return percentage, and one that accounts for that mid-February deposit.

Other calculations

While the time-weighted rate of return is an important measurement, it’s not the only way to look at a portfolio’s returns. Some investors may also choose to evaluate a portfolio or investment based on its money-weighted rate of return. That calculation is similar to the time-weighted rate of return because it incorporates inflows and outflows, but it does not break the overall investment period into smaller intervals.

Another common measure is the compound annual growth rate, (CAGR), which measures an investment’s annual growth rate over time and does not include the impact of inflows and outflows.

The Takeaway

Having an accurate, timely view of a portfolio’s performance is critical for understanding current investments, planning future investments, and considering changes to your asset allocation. While other rate of return calculations can be useful, it’s important to understand their limitations.

The time-weighted rate of return formula is helpful because it takes into account the numerous inflows and outflows of money over various time periods. Armed with that insight, investors can adjust their strategy to try to increase their rate of return. That may mean reallocating or rebalancing their portfolio to include more aggressive investments or less risky securities.

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SOIN0623024

Sep

2023

What Are Stock Delistings and Why Do They Occur?

By Rebecca Lake | Financial Independence, Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

When a stock is delisted, that means it’s been removed from its exchange. All publicly traded stocks are listed on an exchange. In the United States, that typically means the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or the Nasdaq.

There are different reasons for delisting stock, it can occur voluntarily or involuntarily. Owning a delisted stock doesn’t mean you can no longer trade it, but it does change how trades take place. If you own a delisted stock, it’s important to understand what it may mean for your portfolio.

How Stock Listings Work

Before diving into stock delisting, it’s helpful to know more about how stocks get listed in the first place. Stock exchanges can either be physical or digital locations in which investors buy and sell stocks and other securities. The NYSE is an example of a physical exchange, while the Nasdaq is an electronic stock exchange.

To get listed on any stock exchange, companies must meet certain requirements. For example, Nasdaq-listed companies must meet specific guidelines relating to:

• Pre-tax earnings

• Cash flows

• Market capitalization

• Revenue

• Total assets

• Stockholder equity

• Minimum bid price

Companies must also pay a fee to be listed on the exchange. The NYSE has its own requirements that companies must meet to be listed.

Once a stock is listed, it can be traded by investors. But being listed on an exchange doesn’t guarantee the stock will remain there permanently. Stocks get added to and removed from exchanges fairly regularly.

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What Does Delisting a Stock Mean?

When a stock is delisted, either the company itself or the exchange decides to remove the stock from the exchange.

Exchange-Initiated Stock Delisting

When an exchange delists a stock, it’s typically because it no longer meets the minimum requirements for listing or its failed to meet some regulatory requirement. Using Nasdaq-listed stocks as an example, a delisting can happen if a company’s pre-tax earnings, market capitalization, or minimum share price fall below the thresholds required by the exchange.

Exchanges set listing requirements to try and ensure that only high-quality companies are available to trade. Without stock listing requirements, it would be easier for financially unstable companies to find their way into the market. This could pose a risk to investors and the market as a whole.

In delisting stocks that don’t meet the basic requirements, exchanges can minimize that risk. When and if a company addresses the areas where it falls short, it can apply for relisting. Assuming it meets all the necessary requirements, it can once again trade on the exchange.

Exchanges typically give companies opportunities to rectify the situation before delisting stocks. For example, if a company is trading under the minimum bid price requirement, the exchange can send notice that this requirement isn’t being met and specify a deadline for improvement. That can help companies that experience temporary price dips only to have share prices rebound relatively quickly.

Company-Initiated Stock Delistings

A delisted stock can also reflect a decision on the part of the listed company. There are different reasons a company voluntarily delists itself. Scenarios include:

• A move from public to private ownership

• Merger with or acquisition by another company

• Bankruptcy filing

• Ceased operations

In some cases, a company may ask to be delisted as a preemptive measure if it’s aware that it’s in danger of being delisted by the exchange. For example, if the latest quarterly earnings report shows a steep decline in market capitalization below the minimum threshold, the company may move ahead with voluntary delisting.

What Happens If a Stock Is Delisted?

Once a stock has been delisted from its exchange, either voluntarily or involuntarily, it can still be traded. But trading activity now happens over-the-counter (OTC) versus through an exchange.

An over-the-counter trade is any trade that doesn’t take place on a stock exchange. Investors can trade both listed or delisted stock shares over-the-counter through alternative trading networks of market makers. The OTC Markets Group and the Financial Industry Regulation Authority (FINRA) are two groups that manage OTC trading activity.

Unless the company that issued a now-delisted stock cancels its shares for any reason, your investment doesn’t disappear. If you owned 500 shares of ABC company before it was delisted, for example, you’d still own 500 shares afterward. You could continue trading those shares, though you’d do so through an over-the-counter network.

What can change, however, is the value of those shares after the delisting. Again, this can depend on whether the exchange or the company initiated a delisting, and the reasoning behind the decision.

For example, if a stock is being delisted because the company is filing for bankruptcy its share price could plummet. That means when it’s time to sell them, you may end up doing so at a loss.

Even if a stock’s value doesn’t take a nosedive after delisting, it can still be a sign of financial trouble at the company. If you own delisted dividend-paying stocks, for instance, dividend payments may shrink or dry up altogether if the company begins making cutbacks to preserve capital or reduce expenses.

What to Do If a Stock You Own Is Delisted

If you own shares in a company that delists its stock, it’s important to consider how to manage that in your portfolio. Specifically, that means thinking about whether you want to hold on to your shares or sell them.

It helps to look at the bigger picture of why the reason for the delisting and what it might say about the company. If the company pulled its stock because a bankruptcy filing is in the works, then selling sooner rather than later might make sense to avoid a sharp drop in value.

Also, consider the ease with which you can later sell delisted stock if you decide to keep them. Some online brokerages allow you to trade over-the-counter but not all of them do. If you prefer to keep things as simple as possible when making trades, you may prefer to unload delisted stocks so you no longer have to deal with them.

Recommended: How to Open a New Brokerage Account

The Takeaway

When a stock becomes delisted, it’s removed from an exchange, either because it no longer met the requirements of the exchange, or because the company chose to delist for financial reasons. You can still trade a company after it’s delisted, but transactions occur over-the counter, rather than on an exchange.

Knowing about delisted stocks and companies can be helpful for investors of all types. It doesn’t necessarily mean that they need to invest in those companies, but broadening your knowledge about the markets is almost never a bad idea.

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Photo credit: iStock/wacomka

Sep

2023

What Is a Bear Market? Characteristics and Causes, Explained

By Laurel Tincher | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

A bear market is defined as a broad market decline of 20% or more from recent highs, which lasts for at least two months. Although bear markets make for dramatic headlines, the truth is that bull markets tend to last much longer — the average bear market typically ends within a year.

While most investors know the difference between a bull and a bear market, it’s important to know some of the characteristics of bear markets in order to understand how different market conditions may impact your portfolio and your investment choices.

What Is a Bear Market?

Investors and market watchers generally define a bear market as a drop of 20% or more from market highs. So when investors refer to a bear market, it usually means that multiple broad market indexes, such as the Standard & Poors 500 Index (S&P 500), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and others, fell by 20% or more over at least two months.

To be sure, 20% is a somewhat arbitrary barometer, but it’s a common enough standard throughout the financial world.

The term bear market can also be used to describe a specific security. For example, when a particular stock drops 20% in a short time, it can be said that the stock has entered a bear market.

Bear markets are usually associated with economic recessions, although this isn’t always the case. As economic activity slows, people lose jobs, consumer spending falls, and business earnings decline. As a result, many companies may see their share prices tumble or stagnate as investors pull back.

Why Is It Called a Bear Market?

There are a variety of explanations for why “bear” and “bull” have come to describe specific market conditions. Some say a market slump is like a bear going into hibernation, versus a bull market that keeps charging upward.

The origins of the term bear market may also have come from the so-called bearskin market in the 18th century or earlier. There was a proverb that said it is unwise to sell a bear’s skin before one has caught the bear. Over time the term bearskin, and then bear, became used to describe the selling of assets.

Characteristics of a Bear Market

There are two different types of bear markets:

• Regular bear market or cyclical bear market: The market declines and takes a few months to a year to recover.

• Secular bear market: This type of bear market lasts longer and is driven more by long-term market trends than short-term consumer sentiment. A cyclical bear market can happen within a secular bear market.

History of Bear Markets

The most recent U.S. bear market began in June 2022, largely sparked by rising interest rates and inflation. The bear market officially ended on June 8, 2023, lasting about 248 trading days, according to Dow Jones Market Data, and resulting in a market drop of about 25.4%.

Including the most recent bear market, the S&P 500 Index posted 12 declines of more than 20% since World War II. The table below shows the S&P 500’s returns from the highest point to the lowest point in a downturn. Bear markets average a decline of 34%, and generally last a little more than a year: about 400 days.

Recommended: What Is a Financial Crisis?

Bear markets have occurred as close together as two years and as far apart as nearly 12 years. A secular bear market refers to a longer period of lower-than-average returns; this could last 10 years or more. A secular bear market may include minor rallies, but these don’t take hold.

A cyclical bear market is more likely to last a few weeks to a few months and is more a function of market volatility.

Peak (Start)	Trough (End)	Return	Length (in days)
May 29, 1946	May 17, 1947	-28.78%	353
June 15, 1948	June 13, 1949	-20.57%	363
August 2, 1956	October 22, 1957	-21.63%	446
December 12, 1961	June 26, 1962	-27.97%	196
February 9, 1966	October 7, 1966	-22.18%	240
November 29, 1968	May 26, 1970	-36.06%	543
January 11, 1973	October 3, 1974	-48.20%	630
November 28, 1980	August 12, 1982	-27.11%	622
August 25, 1987	December 4, 1987	-33.51%	101
March 27, 2000	Sept. 21, 2001	-36.77%	545
Jan. 4, 2002	Oct. 9, 2002	-33.75%	278
October 9, 2007	Nov. 10, 2008	-51.93%	408
Jan. 6, 2009	March 9, 2009	-27.62%	62
February 19, 2020	March 23, 2020	-34%	33
June 2022	June 8, 2023	-25%	248
Average		-34%	401

Source: Seeking Alpha/Dow Jones Market Data as of June 8, 2023.

What Causes a Bear Market?

Usually bear markets are caused by a loss of consumer, investor, and business confidence. Various factors can contribute to the loss of consumer confidence, such as changes to interest rates, global events, falling housing prices, or changes in the economy.

When the market reaches a high, people may feel that certain assets are overvalued. In that instance, people are less likely to buy those assets and more likely to start selling them, which can make prices fall.

When other investors see that prices are falling, they may anticipate that the market has reached a peak and will start declining, so they may also sell off their assets to try and profit on them before the decline. In some cases panic can set in, leading to a mass sell-off and a stock market crash (but this is rare).

Is a Recession the Same as a Bear Market?

No. Bear market conditions can lead to recessions if the market slump lasts long enough. But this isn’t always the case. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research as reported in The New York Times, the U.S. has been in a recession only 14% of the time since World War II.

What Is a Bear Market Rally

Things can get tricky if there is a bear market rally. This happens when the market goes back up for a number of days or weeks, but the rise is only temporary. Investors may think that the market decline has ended and start buying, but it may in fact continue to decline after the rally. Sometimes the market does recover and go back into a bull market, but this is hard to predict.

If the bear market continues on long enough then it becomes a recession, which can go on for months or years. That said, it’s not always the case that a bear market means there will be a recession.

Once asset prices have decreased as much as they possibly can, consumer confidence begins to rise again, and people start buying. This reverses the bear market trend into a bull market, and the market starts to recover and grow again.

Example of a Bear Market

The most recent bear market occurred in June of 2022, when the S&P 500 closed 21.8% lower than its high on Jan. 3, 2022.

While the Nasdaq and the Dow showed a similar pattern in early 2022, the decline of those markets didn’t cross the 20% mark that signals official bear market territory.

Bear Market vs Bull Market

A bull market is essentially the opposite of a bear market. As consumer confidence increases, money goes into the markets and they go up.

A bull market is defined as a 20% rise from the low that the market hit in a bear market. However, the parameters of a bull market are not as clearly defined as they are for a bear market. Once the bottom of the bear market has been reached, people generally feel that a bull market has started.

Investing Tips During a Bear Market

There are a few different bear market investing strategies one can use to both prepare for a bear market and navigate through one.

1. Reduce Risky Investments

When preparing for a bear market, it’s a good idea to reduce riskier holdings such as growth stocks and speculative assets. One can move money into cash, gold, bonds, or other ‘safe’ investments to reduce the risk of losses if the market goes down.

These safe investments tend to perform better than stocks during a bear market. Types of stocks that tend to weather bear markets well include consumer staples and healthcare companies.

2. Diversify

Another investing strategy is diversification. Rather than having all of one’s money in stocks, distribute your investments across asset classes, e.g. precious metals, bonds, crypto, real estate, or other types of investments.

This way, if one type of asset goes down a lot, the others might not go down as much. Similarly, one asset may increase a lot in value, but it’s hard to predict which one, so diversifying increases the chances that one will be exposed to the upward trend, and you’ll see a gain.

3. Save Capital and Reduce Losses

During a bear market, a common strategy is to shift from growing capital into saving it and reducing losses. It may be tempting to try and pick where the market has hit the bottom and start buying growth assets again, but this is very hard to do. It’s safer to invest small amounts of money over time using a dollar-cost averaging strategy so that one’s investments all average out, rather than trying to predict market highs and lows.

4. Find Opportunities for Future Growth

However, in a broad sense if the market is at a high and assets are clearly overvalued, this may not be the best time to buy. And vice versa if assets are clearly undervalued it may be a good time to buy and grow one’s portfolio. A bear market can be a good time to identify assets that might grow in the next bull market and start investing in them.

5. Short Selling

A very risky strategy that some investors take is short selling in anticipation of a bear market. This involves borrowing shares and selling them, then hoping to buy them back at a lower price. It’s risky because there is no guarantee that the price of the shares will fall, and since the shares are borrowed, typically using a margin account, they may end up owing the broker money if their trade doesn’t work out as they hope.

Overall, it’s best to create a long-term investing strategy rather than focusing on short-term trends and making reactive decisions to market changes. It can be scary to watch one’s portfolio go down, especially if it happens fast, but selling off assets because the market is crashing generally doesn’t turn out well for investors.

The Takeaway

Bear markets can be scary times for investors, but even a prolonged drop of 20% or more isn’t likely to last more than a few months, according to historical data. In some cases, bear markets present opportunities to buy stocks at a discount (meaning, when prices are low), in the hope they might rise.

Also there are strategies you can use to reduce losses and prepare for the next bull market, including different types of asset allocation. The point is that whether the markets are considered bearish or bullish, any time can be a good time to invest.

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FAQ

How long do bear markets last?

Bear markets may last a few months to a year or more, but most bear markets end within a year’s time. If they go on longer than that they typically become recessions. And while a bear market can end in a few months, it can take longer for the market to regain lost ground.

When was the last bear market?

The most recent bear market started in June of 2022, when the S&P 500 fell from record highs in January for more than two months.

Photo credit: iStock/Morsa Images

Sep

2023

Is Inflation a Good or Bad Thing for Consumers?

By Rebecca Lake | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

There are two sides to inflation for consumers: The rising cost of goods and services means that the basic cost of living rises for most people. But the right amount of inflation can spur production and economic growth.

Deciding whether inflation is good or bad therefore depends on how various factors might play out in different economic sectors.

What Is Inflation?

Inflation is an economic trend in which prices for goods and services rise over time. The Federal Reserve uses different price indexes to track inflation and determine how to shape monetary policy.

Generally speaking, the Fed targets a 2% annual inflation rate as measured by pricing indexes, including the Consumer Price Index. Historically, though, the inflation rate has been about 3.3%.

Rising demand for goods and services can trigger inflation when there’s an imbalance in supply. This is known as demand-pull inflation.

Cost-push inflation occurs when the price of commodities rises, pushing up the price of goods or services that rely on those commodities.

Asking whether inflation is bad isn’t the right lens for this economic factor. Inflation can have both pros and cons for consumers and investors. Understanding the potential effects of inflation can maximize the positives while minimizing the negatives.

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Is Inflation Good or Bad?

Answering the question of whether inflation is good or bad means understanding why inflation matters so much. The Federal Reserve takes an interest in inflation because it relates to broader economic and monetary policy.

Some level of inflation in an economy is normal, and an indication that the economy is continuing to grow. While inflation has remained relatively low over the past decade, it has historically seen the most change during or right after recessions.

The Fed believes that its 2% target inflation rate encourages price stability and maximum employment.

Recommended: 7 Factors That Cause Inflation

Broadly speaking, high inflation can make it difficult for households to afford basic necessities, such as food and shelter. When inflation is too low, that can lead to economic weakening. If inflation trends too low for an extended period of time, consumers may come to expect that to continue, which can create a cycle of low inflation rates.

That sounds good, as lower inflation means prices are not increasing over time for goods and services. So consumers may not struggle to afford the things they need to maintain their standard of living. But prolonged low inflation can impact interest rate policy.

The Federal Reserve uses interest rate cuts and hikes to keep the economy on an even keel. For example, if the economy is in danger of overheating because it’s growing too rapidly, or inflation is increasing too quickly, the Fed may raise rates to encourage a pullback in borrowing and spending.

Conversely, when the economy is in a downturn, the Fed may cut rates to try to promote spending and borrowing.

When both inflation and interest rates are low, that may not leave much room for further rate cuts in an economic crisis, which may spur higher employment rates. If prices for goods and services continue to decline, that could lead to a period of deflation or even a recession.

So, is inflation good or bad? The answer is that it can be a little of both. How deeply inflation affects consumers or investors — and who it affects most — depends on what’s behind rising prices, how long inflation lasts, and how the Fed manages interest rates.

What Is Core Inflation?

Core inflation measures the rising cost of goods and services in the economy, but excludes food and energy costs. Food and energy prices are notoriously volatile, even though demand for these staples tends to remain steady.

Both food and energy prices are partly driven by the price of commodities — which also tend to fluctuate, owing to speculation in the commodities markets. So the short-term price changes in these two markets make it difficult to include them in a long-term reading of inflationary trends: hence the core inflation metric.

The Consumer Price Index and the core personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) are the two main ways to measure underlying inflation that’s long term.

Who Benefits from Inflation?

The Federal Reserve believes some inflation is good and even necessary to maintain a healthy economy. The key is keeping inflation rates at acceptable levels, such as the 2% annual inflation rate target. Staying within this proverbial Goldilocks zone can result in numerous positive impacts for consumers and the economy in general.

That said, the core inflation rate began to climb out of that range in Q1 of 2021, and reached a peak of about 9.02% in June 2022. As of Q3 2023, the inflation rate has eased down in the 4.0% range, according to data from the Consumer Price Index.

Inflation Pros

Sustainable inflation can yield these benefits:

• Higher employment rates

• Continued economic growth

• Potential for higher wages if employers offer cost-of-living pay raises

• Cost-of-living adjustments for those receiving Social Security retirement benefits

The danger, of course, is that inflation escalates too rapidly, requiring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as a result. This increases the overall cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses.

Who Is Inflation Good For?

Inflation can benefit certain groups, depending on how it impacts Fed shapes monetary policy. Some of the people who can benefit from inflation include:

• Savers, if an interest rate hike results in higher rates on savings accounts, money market accounts or certificates of deposit

• Debtors, if they’re repaying loans with money that’s worth less than the money they borrowed

• Homeowners who have a low, fixed-rate mortgage

• People who hold investments that appreciate in value as inflation rises

💡 Quick Tip: Distributing your money across a range of assets — also known as diversification — can be beneficial for long-term investors. When you put your eggs in many baskets, it may be beneficial if a single asset class goes down.

Who Does Inflation Hurt the Most?

Some of the negative effects of inflation are more obvious than others. And there may be different consequences for consumers versus investors.

Inflation Cons

In terms of what’s bad about inflation, here are some of the biggest cons:

• Higher inflation means goods and services cost more, potentially straining consumer paychecks

• Investors may see their return on investment erode if higher inflation diminishes purchasing power, or if they’re holding low-interest bonds

• Unemployment rates may climb if employers lay off staff to cope with rising overhead costs

• Rising inflation can weaken currency values

Inflation can be particularly bad if it leads to hyperinflation. This phenomenon occurs when prices for goods and services increase uncontrolled over an extended period of time. Generally, this would mean an inflation growth rate of 50% or more per month. While hyperinflation has never happened in the United States, there are many examples from different time periods around the world: For example, Zimbabwe experienced a daily inflation rate of 98% in 2007-2008, when prices doubled every day.

Recommended: How to Protect Yourself From Inflation

Who Is Inflation Bad For?

The negative impacts of inflation can affect some more than others. In general, inflation may be bad for:

• Consumers who live on a fixed income

• People who plan to borrow money, if higher interest rates accompany the inflation

• Homeowners with an adjustable-rate mortgage

• Individuals who aren’t investing in the market as a hedge against inflation

Inflation and higher prices can be detrimental to retirees whose savings may not stretch as far, particularly when health care becomes more expensive.

If the cost of living increases but wages stagnate, that can also be problematic for workers because they end up spending more for the same things.

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How to Invest During Times of Inflation

While inflation is an investment risk to consider, some investing strategies can help minimize its impact on your portfolio.

How to Protect Your Money From Inflation

The first step is to understand that inflation rates may be variable from year to year, but the upward trend in the cost of goods and services is typically a factor investors must contend with. Essentially, if inflation is historically about 2% per year, it’s ideal to look for returns above that.

For example, while savings accounts may yield more interest if the Fed raises interest rates, investing in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or mutual funds could generate higher returns, though these investments also come with a higher degree of risk.

• Diversification. Having a diversified portfolio that includes a mix of stock and bonds and other asset classes may help mitigate the impact of inflation.

• Always be aware of investment costs and the impact of taxes and fees. Minimizing investment costs is a time-honored way to keep more of what you earn.

• Investing in Treasury-Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). TIPS are government-issued securities designed to generate consistent returns regardless of inflationary changes.

• If prices are rising, that can increase rental property incomes. You could benefit from that by investing in real estate ETFs or real estate investment trusts (REITs) if you’d rather not own property directly.

• Compounding interest allows you to earn interest on your interest, which is key to building wealth.

• Dollar-cost averaging means investing continuously, whether stock prices are low or high. When inflationary changes are part of a larger shift in the economic cycle, investors who dollar-cost average can still reap long term benefits, despite rising prices.

The Takeaway

Inflation is unavoidable, but you can take steps to minimize the impact to your personal financial situation. Building a well-rounded portfolio of stocks, ETFs and other investments is one strategy for keeping pace with rising inflation. Being aware of how taxes and fees can impact your returns is another way to keep more of what you earn.

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FAQ

How is economic deflation different from inflation?

Deflation is when the cost of goods and services trends downward rather than upward (the sign of inflation). Deflation can be positive for consumers, as their money goes further, but prolonged deflation can also be a sign of a contraction.

How do homeowners benefit from inflation?

Typically tangible assets like real estate tend to increase in value over time, even in the face of inflation. Currency, on the other hand, tends to lose value.

How does the government measure inflation?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the Consumer Price Index (CPI), based on the change in cost for a range of goods and services. The CPI is the most common measure of inflation.

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Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

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Is Inflation a Good or Bad Thing for Consumers?

What Is Inflation?

Is Inflation Good or Bad?

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Who Benefits from Inflation?

Inflation Pros

Who Is Inflation Good For?

Who Does Inflation Hurt the Most?

Inflation Cons

Who Is Inflation Bad For?

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How to Invest During Times of Inflation

How to Protect Your Money From Inflation

The Takeaway

FAQ

How is economic deflation different from inflation?

How do homeowners benefit from inflation?

How does the government measure inflation?

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