See if this feels familiar: You were excited for this year’s tax refund, but now that you’ve used the money, the next one feels a very long way off.

Or maybe you just swallowed a nasty tax bill that’s going to take you months to recover from.

If you can relate to either of these scenarios, it’s probably time to update your tax withholding. A big refund can mean you’re overpaying the government during the year, and a big bill means that you should have been paying more.

Updating your IRS Form W-4 with your employer can correct for either, raising or lowering your paychecks accordingly.

Not sure what to change on the form? Taxes are such a black box that it can be hard to know. And the W-4 isn’t the most intuitive document.

This is where the IRS’s Tax Withholding Estimator comes in.

If you fill in some basic pay stub information, this online tool will estimate how much you would owe or get back if you don’t change anything for the rest of the year. But better still, it will give you the numbers you need to revise your W-4 so you won’t have any bill or refund. And it’s just been updated to reflect the tax changes passed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

(Don’t worry, it doesn’t ask for your name or record the information you input.)

Now, if you want to tinker with the numbers for any reason, it gets a bit trickier. But in short, increasing Line 3 on your W-4 will reduce the amount of tax withheld and increasing Line 4(c) will increase it. (Bonus tip: If you want your take-home pay to be bigger, increase the amount on Line 3. It looks like it’s just for people who claim dependents or other credits, but it’s not.)

So what?

Your W-4 is a powerful form. Adjusting it now can potentially put more money in your pocket or help you avoid having to catch up later in the year.

And even if your most recent tax return was spot on, it’s worth running the withholding estimator at least once a year. (Or whenever you get a second job, buy a house, or have another big life change like a marriage or divorce.)

Related Reading

•   The Hidden Cost of a Big Tax Refund (SoFi)

•   How to Accurately Fill Out Your W-4 Form (Nerdwallet)

•   When Should I Adjust My W-4 Withholdings? (Jackson Hewitt)

OTM20260420SW

Now that the big banks have officially cut the ribbon on first-quarter earnings season, Wall Street is preparing for a barrage of corporate scorecards.

Last week, financial titans gave us a 30,000-foot view of the economy. Now, it’s time to get a little more into the weeds. While investors are undoubtedly eager to hear from Big Tech, those highly anticipated reports don’t start rolling in until next week. This week, the spotlight shifts to the companies that make up the day-to-day machinery of the economy — think airlines, consumer staples, and heavy manufacturing.

It comes at a good time, as the geopolitical shockwaves from the war in Iran can no longer be ignored. The conflict has sent oil prices soaring, creating an energy shock even more severe than when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Although the effects are still rippling across global supply chains, there are already signs that it has gotten more expensive to manufacture a product, put it on a truck, or fly it across the country.

So, what is corporate America seeing? Have input costs spiked? And if so, do they intend to eat the higher costs, or will they try passing them onto consumers? (Would they even be able to do that or would consumers revolt?)

The traditional economy might not be as glamorous as artificial intelligence, but it might very well be where the impact of the macro backdrop is felt the most.

On the Docket

Monday

  Earnings: Steel Dynamics (STLD)

Tuesday

April Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

March Retail Sales: This measures spending at retail stores and is a key indicator of consumer demand.

Earnings: Chubb (CB), Capital One Financial (COF), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), DR Horton (DHI), Danaher (DHR), Equifax (EFX), EQT (EQT), General Electric (GE), Genuine Parts (GPC), Halliburton (HAL), Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), 3M (MMM), MSCI (MSCI), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Northern Trust (NTRS), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), United Airlines (UAL), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), W R Berkley (WRB)

Wednesday

Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

Earnings: Boeing (BA), Boston Scientific (BSX), Crown Castle International (CCI), CME Group (CME), CSX (CSX), Elevance Health (ELV), GE Vernova (GEV), Globe Life (GL), International Business Machines (IBM), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Lam Research (LRCX), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Masco (MAS), Moody's (MCO), ServiceNow (NOW), NVR (NVR), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), Packaging of America (PKG), Philip Morris International (PM), Raymond James Financial (RJF), Rollins (ROL), AT&T (T), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), TE Connectivity (TEL), Tesla (TSLA), Texas Instruments (TXN), United Rentals (URI), Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT), Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB)

Thursday

March Chicago Fed National Activity Index: This is a monthly index put together that incorporates 85 indicators from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories.

April S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.

April Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

Earnings: Ameriprise Financial (AMP), American Express (AXP), Baker Hughes (BKR), Blackstone Group LP (BX), CBRE Group (CBRE), Comcast (CMCSA), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Dover (DOV), Dow Inc (DOW), Erie Indemnity (ERIE), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG), Honeywell International (HON), Intel (INTC), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Nasdaq (NDAQ), NextEra Energy (NEE), Newmont Mining (NEM), PG&E (PCG), Principal Financial Group (PFG), PulteGroup (PHM), Pool (POOL), Roper Technologies (ROP), Snap-on (SNA), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Union Pacific (UNP), VeriSign (VRSN), West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)

Friday

April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.

April Kansas City Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

Earnings: Charter Communications (CHTR), Fiserv (FISV), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Hasbro (HAS), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Procter & Gamble (PG), Schlumberger (SLB)

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OTM2026042002

On the whole, grocery prices fell for the first month in almost a year, according to the March Consumer Price Index. While tomato prices spiked again — driven by tariffs and higher fuel and fertilizer costs — shoppers got some relief on a number of foods, including condiments, lettuce, and hot dogs. Plus, beef wasn’t on the list of big movers, for a change.

Explore the data and our tips for keeping your grocery bills from getting out of hand.

5 Tips for Cutting Your Grocery Bills

•   Use unit pricing. You want the best deal, but it can be hard to compare prices when things are sold in different-sized packages. Compare the unit prices instead of the retail prices, using the shelf labels or an app like this one.

•   Make a habit of taking inventory before you shop. Check your fridge before shopping to avoid buying produce, meat, and other perishables you already have.

•   If you regularly throw out fresh produce that’s gone bad, look for frozen or canned alternatives. Frozen versions are often harvested at peak ripeness and will last longer and potentially cost less. You can also buy produce on sale or in season and then freeze the savings.

•   Choose your protein wisely. Given how expensive beef is, now’s a great time to learn about cheaper protein sources, whether that means moving toward a vegetarian diet with beans, nuts, and dairy or finding ways to make a pound of chicken stretch further in casseroles and soups.

•   Switch grocery stores. Grocery store prices can vary a lot, so it’s worth branching out to stores you don’t normally use in order to compare. You can also do online research to see what others like and dislike about various chains.

OTM2026042001

Every conversation about crypto seems to start with Bitcoin. But if you've bought crypto, there's a good chance you've at least glanced at other coins. Maybe you own some Ethereum. Maybe someone mentioned Solana at a dinner party. Maybe you've seen a coin with a dog on it that somehow has a multi-billion dollar market cap.

For longer-term crypto investors, it’s worth asking how these altcoins — that is, the crypto universe beyond Bitcoin — fit in. Here's a framework to get you started.

Bitcoin is still the anchor

While their use cases vary wildly, cryptocurrencies are all part of a movement to rewrite the rules of finance. The primary appeal is that there’s no central authority (like a government or bank) that issues or controls it. It’s decentralized, with transactions secured through cryptography and recorded on blockchains — operating systems akin to Windows or iOS for the crypto ecosystem.

Bitcoin, the first coin and blockchain, has the longest track record, so it’s been stress-tested across multiple market cycles (meaning swings from peak to trough).

Unlike with traditional "fiat" currencies (like the U.S. dollar or euro), there’s a fixed supply of 21 million Bitcoins (BTC). In other words, a central bank can’t continue to print more of them, so they can be an attractive hedge against fiat currencies losing value. For this reason, Bitcoin is sometimes described as a digital version of gold.

Bitcoin also has the largest market cap of any cryptocurrency and the clearest regulatory treatment: It’s classified as a commodity by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

For investors who want crypto exposure without going too far down the blockchain rabbit hole, Bitcoin remains the default entry point.

Ethereum is No. 2

Ether is the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, (Ethereum is actually the blockchain network, and Ether (ETH) is the cryptocurrency.) It’s probably the most important altcoin to understand because it's fundamentally different from Bitcoin.

While Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it primarily a store of value, Ethereum is used as more than digital money. It’s actually more like an infrastructure layer — a programmable platform on which developers build applications, issue tokens, and run smart contracts.

Much of the activity in crypto — decentralized finance, stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets (think property or bonds represented on a blockchain) — run on Ethereum or platforms inspired by it.

The altcoin universe: signal vs. noise

Beyond Bitcoin and ETH, there are millions of altcoins. Many of the coins launched during the 2020–2021 bull market have lost most of their value, reflecting how speculative excess tends to unwind as a natural part of a crypto cycle. In fact, a large share of crypto projects became inactive or failed within a few years, according to CoinGecko.

The projects that tend to last share a few characteristics: a genuine use case (beyond speculation,) an active developer ecosystem, meaningful liquidity and trading volume, and a track record of surviving at least one full market cycle.

Solana, for example, has built a significant ecosystem of applications and users – and survived a major stress event in 2022 tied to the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX. That's meaningfully different from projects that launch on hype and quickly disappear.

A practical allocation framework

Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative, and buying them comes with the risk of significant losses. But Bitcoin and Ethereum have demonstrated relative staying power, making them popular core holdings for long-term investors.

Smaller altcoins can potentially deliver outsized returns, but they carry meaningful risk too. When evaluating them, the most useful question is simple: What problem does this actually solve – and does it require a blockchain to solve it? If the answer to the second question is "not really," that's a red flag. Many crypto projects exist in part because issuing a token is a way to raise capital — not because a blockchain is essential to the product.

Cryptocurrency and other digital assets are highly speculative, involve significant risk, and may result in the complete loss of value. Cryptocurrency and other digital assets are not deposits, are not insured by the FDIC or SIPC, are not bank guaranteed, and may lose value.

All cryptocurrency transactions, once submitted to the blockchain, are final and irreversible. SoFi is not responsible for any failure or delay in processing a transaction resulting from factors beyond its reasonable control, including blockchain network congestion, protocol or network operations, or incorrect address information. Availability of specific digital assets, features, and services is subject to change and may be limited by applicable law and regulation.

SoFi Crypto products and services are offered by SoFi Bank, N.A., a national bank regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. SoFi Bank does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice. Please refer to the SoFi Crypto Account Agreement for additional terms and conditions.

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn't be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi's affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It's important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

OTM2026041701

Markets seem to be tired of worrying about the war, with the S&P 500 surpassing its pre-war levels on Monday and the Nasdaq posting +14% returns in the last 10 trading days. Although the war is not over and no definitive resolution has been reached, investors seem satisfied with the momentum toward resolution for the moment.

So let's dig into some other topics that are important in markets this month.

Banks Beat

I'm grateful to have earnings to talk about right now. Things are looking good so far and this is one of the drivers of current positive sentiment among investors.

As always, Q1 earnings season kicked off in earnest with the big banks reporting results. They usually set the tone, and this time around the tone is quite positive, even if some of their stock prices didn't reflect that level of enthusiasm.

Of the major financial companies that have reported so far — Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley — all but Wells Fargo beat earnings and sales estimates.

Commentary from C-suites are followed closely by market participants for indications of the business environment. Their sentiment was generally strong, although most did acknowledge ongoing geopolitical risks and possible growth concerns if the conflict drags on. But it would be weird if they didn't say something like that.

Bank earnings are certainly not the main story driving markets higher right now, but the fact that they came in relatively strong — and frankly, that they didn't come in weak — serves as a solid foundation for the rest of the earnings season.

Also worth noting, in recent weeks I've pointed out that the Financials sector can serve as convincing validation for market rallies. A rally that doesn't include the banks is to be questioned, IMO. So far, this one does.

An Odd, But Accurate, Bellwether

Earnings season is still young, with only 30 S&P companies having reported as of Wednesday morning, but the outlook is strong. Bottom-up estimates are calling for 11.3% earnings growth for Q1 and 16.9% for the full year, which is strong relative to most comparisons. If that materializes, markets will have the fundamental support they need and investors will remain optimistic.

One of the interesting correlations in markets is between South Korean exports and U.S. earnings growth. Specifically, South Korean exports tend to lead U.S. forward earnings growth by roughly one month, largely due to the technology ordering cycle. South Korea is the world's largest producer of memory chips, and when orders go up, it typically means technology giants are gearing up for increased demand and higher revenue.

Given growth in AI and the CapEx spending boom that's resulted, this metric is particularly sensitive and showing very strong trends.

By this metric alone, it appears that there is much more upside for earnings growth and the double-digit growth expectations for 2026 are warranted.

Tax Week Wonkiness

Outside of earnings and the war, the other major news this week is the U.S. tax deadline. The interesting piece of this to watch is that as the Treasury receives tax payments, liquidity in markets tends to get squeezed temporarily and some volatility can ensue. This is usually expected by the Fed and institutional investors and is not something to fear, per se, but it can cause some wonky moves for a couple weeks.

Without getting too far into the weeds, as tax receipts come in, the Treasury's account at the Fed (Treasury General Account or TGA) grows. That growth is offset by a reduction in bank reserves, which effectively pressures funding markets in the near term.

This is not a warning, and it's not a guarantee that volatility will rise. It's simply a force to be aware of that could affect commentary from the Fed in coming meetings. The Fed recently announced that it would reduce its monthly bond buying from $40b to $25b, which though well-telegraphed, is also a reduction in liquidity support.

Markets can likely withstand both of these forces, but if liquidity gets uncomfortable, I'd expect the Fed to change its tune… even with a new Fed chair in the seat.

All in all, the war is still the most important force in markets. But its headline dominance doesn't eliminate the other drivers under the surface right now. Stay vigilant, but stay invested.

Communication of SoFi Wealth LLC an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth's advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth's current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Liz Thomas is a Registered Representative of SoFi Securities and Investment Advisor Representative of SoFi Wealth. Form ADV 2A is available at www.sofi.com/legal/adv.

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn't be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi's affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It's important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

Price charts can be intimidating. They can also be addictive. Our goal here is to give you just enough to understand what a chart is actually telling you, without turning you into someone who stares at candlesticks at 2 a.m. Here's how to look at a chart, take in key signals, and close the tab — without overthinking it.

The basics: price and volume

Most charts include two fundamental elements: price and trading volume. The chart below shows how Bitcoin's volume corresponded with major price swings between 2020 and 2025 — the 2021 bull run, the 2022 crash, and the 2024–25 rally. In each case, the biggest moves coincided with the tallest bars. That's a pattern worth recognizing: High volume can reinforce price movement, signaling a stronger conviction in the market. And that conviction can be held by many traders or just a few acting at scale.

Support and resistance: Think floor and ceiling

Two of the most useful charting concepts are support and resistance levels. A support level shows a historical floor – the price at which an asset has repeatedly stopped falling. Resistance shows a ceiling, where the asset has historically stalled on its way up.

When a price approaches a support zone, it's worth paying attention. Historically, that's where buyers have stepped in. It doesn't mean they will again, or that the price will go up, but it does mean you're not in uncharted territory. The same logic applies for resistance: If an asset has repeatedly failed to break above a certain level, that ceiling is worth knowing about before you read too much into a short-term rally.

There can be more than one support and resistance level for an asset, given that market dynamics change over time (think: a breakthrough moment.) The chart below shows Ether (ETH) with two support zones (S1, S2) and two resistance zones (R1, R2).

Moving averages: Cutting through the noise

A moving average (MA) smooths out daily price swings by tracking the average price over a set number of days — commonly 200 days for long-term trends, and 50 days for shorter-term shifts.

In the chart above, note how Bitcoin (BTC) spent most of 2023–2025 above the 200-day moving average, with two deeper dips in 2025.

When a price is trading above its 200-day moving average, it indicates that the longer-term trend is still upward. A drop below is worth noting — though brief dips don't necessarily signal a lasting reversal. Whether you act on these signals or not, having this insight can help you quickly gauge whether you're looking at strength, weakness, or something in between.

The trap to avoid

Chart literacy has a well-known dark side: It can mislead you into feeling like you can predict the future. You can't. Nobody can, consistently. The research on retail traders attempting to time the market based on technical signals is, on the whole, discouraging.

No chart can reliably answer the question "Is now the exact right time to buy?"

The most useful way to approach chart-reading is not as a predictive tool – but a diagnostic one that can help you understand the current landscape. Is this asset in a defined downtrend, or is it consolidating before a potential move? Is the trading volume confirming what the price is doing, or contradicting it? Charts can help provide answers to these questions.

A practical routine

Think of chart-reading as learning to check the weather. You're not trying to control it. You're just trying to dress appropriately.

If you want to check in on your crypto without it consuming your week, one simple habit can help: Once a week, look at a medium-term chart (for example, the past 60-90 days) for any asset you hold. Note where it sits relative to its 200-day moving average. Check whether recent price moves were accompanied by meaningful trading volume. Then close the tab. For most long-term investors, that level of attention is enough.

The goal is context, not control.

Stay tuned for the final part of our series: There's more to crypto than Bitcoin. How to evaluate other altcoins.

Cryptocurrency and other digital assets are highly speculative, involve significant risk, and may result in the complete loss of value. Cryptocurrency and other digital assets are not deposits, are not insured by the FDIC or SIPC, are not bank guaranteed, and may lose value.

All cryptocurrency transactions, once submitted to the blockchain, are final and irreversible. SoFi is not responsible for any failure or delay in processing a transaction resulting from factors beyond its reasonable control, including blockchain network congestion, protocol or network operations, or incorrect address information. Availability of specific digital assets, features, and services is subject to change and may be limited by applicable law and regulation.

SoFi Crypto products and services are offered by SoFi Bank, N.A., a national bank regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. SoFi Bank does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice. Please refer to the SoFi Crypto Account Agreement for additional terms and conditions.

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn't be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi's affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It's important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

OTM2026041501

Some people feel relieved to pay off their credit card balance. Or pumped to put it straight into the stash they’ve been building for a down payment on a house. Others may be looking forward to treating themselves (hello, new microfoaming espresso machine.)

But within the big picture of saving and investing, getting a refund may not be the ideal result. Technically, it means you’ve paid more tax than you needed to during the year, in effect making an interest-free loan to the government. If you’d been able to keep more of your paycheck at the start, you might have had a financial advantage, paying high-interest debt down faster or adding to your 401(k) investments earlier.

On the other hand, refunds are a form of forced savings that may not come naturally otherwise.

Here’s what to consider.

Why You Get a Refund

Income taxes are typically pay-as-you-go, so unless you’re self-employed, you’re typically taxed throughout the year, with part of each paycheck going directly to the IRS to fund government functions like national defense, roads and bridges, and safety net programs.

(Self-employed people don’t have taxes withheld from their paycheck, but the same concept applies because they have to make quarterly tax payments based on their estimates of earnings.)

How much is diverted is determined by how you fill out the IRS’s W-4 withholding form, which takes into account your tax filing status, family, other income, and tax credits or deductions.

The idea is that if the right amount is withheld, come tax time, you won’t owe the IRS anything more, but the IRS won’t need to return anything to you either.

Taxes are complicated, though. If you don’t keep your W-4 up-to-date, you don’t fill it out correctly, or there are retroactive changes to tax law (as there were this year,) you may not break even. You could wind up with a refund or tax bill. (If you owe money, missing the mark too much can result in an extra penalty too.)

The Downsides of Getting a Tax Refund

While there were unusual circumstances to this year’s refunds, here’s why you may not want one in the future.

If you get a $3,000 refund, that effectively means your paychecks were about $250 a month lower than they needed to be.

Here’s what might have happened if you’d had access to that money a year earlier.

Let’s say you had $5,000 in credit card debt accruing finance charges at a 15% annual interest rate. If you paid $350 a month instead of $100 a month, you’d have saved $215 in interest after one year.

Or, let’s say you added the $250 to your monthly 401(k) contribution, giving it an extra year to grow. (If that money earned a 7% annual return — the average return for the S&P 500 Index historically — you’d have earned an extra $113.)

The Benefits of Getting a Tax Refund

So why do so many people wind up effectively lending the government money?

While it’s often the result of errors or changed circumstances, there’s a psychological component to getting a refund too: Getting the money all at once feels different than getting it throughout the year.

Depending on how disciplined you are, this may or may not be a good thing. For instance, a 2024 survey by Intuit Credit Karma showed that about a quarter of taxpayers planned to use their refund for things they wouldn’t otherwise buy. This aligns with academic research that has shown households tend to increase their spending when they receive expected refunds.

On the other hand, an Experian survey last month revealed a third of consumers planned to add it to savings, 20% were going to use the money to pay down debt, 10% were going to invest it, and 8% were going to use it for home improvement.

Whatever You Do, Make It Count

If you get your tax withholding right on the nose, you can make more of your money work for you sooner.

But if saving money is a monthly struggle, it may be worth it to overwithhold and let the government safeguard cash in a lump sum.

Ultimately, if you get a tax refund — for whatever the reason — make it count. Use it to make progress on a financial goal, like paying down debt, giving yourself more financial cushion, or building up your retirement savings. Your future self will thank you.

OTM202641502

•   Today: How to keep your emotions in check when volatility spikes.

•   Wednesday: How to read performance charts without falling into traps.

•   Friday: How other coins compare to Bitcoin.

Whatever the asset class, major market drops can trigger a survival instinct to “hit eject” before it gets worse. But depending on your time horizon, acting on those impulses can turn a temporary downturn into a permanent loss.

The stronger approach is to stick to your gameplan, accepting that market swings are a regular part of the deal and prioritizing your financial goals and timeline. If you’re investing for your future, this often means staying the course, choosing patience over a panicked or impulsive sale.

Take the S&P 500. According to a J.P. Morgan analysis of the stock index’s 10 best and worst performing days over two decades, an investor attempting to dodge the worst days would have missed out on most of the best, too. Staying invested through the swings would have nearly doubled their average annualized return.

Plus, when you sell during a downturn, you're not just locking in a loss, you're betting that you'll know exactly when to get back in.

What history actually shows

The same principles can be applied to crypto. Before Bitcoin’s latest plunge – it’s down more than 40% over the past six months – the OG coin had experienced four major drawdowns (of 50% or more) since 2014. Each time, the price eventually recovered and reached new highs, though in some cases, it took as long as three years.

Now, past performance isn’t predictive of future returns, and owning a highly speculative asset like Bitcoin involves significant risk.

But if your portfolio is down and your crypto soul is in need of soothing, this data underscores a critical point: Choppy waters are the natural habitat of this asset class. If you’re playing the long game, you’ll want a strategy that can survive this volatility without forcing you into an emotional exit.

Dollar-cost averaging: a systematic alternative to timing the market

There’s no way to know when a market has hit bottom. One way to avoid the guesswork is by practicing dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Rather than trying to time an investment based on price, DCA means making a fixed investment on a regular schedule. If that’s $50 every two weeks, your $50 buys more when prices are low and less when prices are high. The goal is that over time, your costs will average out, reducing the potential downside of any single decision.

Now, DCA doesn't guarantee higher returns, and in steadily rising markets, you could fare better making one lump-sum investment. But adopting a steady, repeatable process can reduce the stress of investing and build disciplined habits.

The bottom line: If your position in crypto or another single asset class becomes an uncomfortably big chunk of your total net worth, reconfiguring your allocations could be a prudent move.

But whether you buy, sell, or hold, don’t underestimate the power of time and perspective. You won’t ever be able to perfectly pick the peaks and valleys, but by zooming out, you can focus on the growth that happens between the extremes.

Stay tuned for Part 2 of our series: How to read a crypto chart without it taking over your week.

Cryptocurrency and other digital assets are highly speculative, involve significant risk, and may result in the complete loss of value. Cryptocurrency and other digital assets are not deposits, are not insured by the FDIC or SIPC, are not bank guaranteed, and may lose value.

All cryptocurrency transactions, once submitted to the blockchain, are final and irreversible. SoFi is not responsible for any failure or delay in processing a transaction resulting from factors beyond its reasonable control, including blockchain network congestion, protocol or network operations, or incorrect address information. Availability of specific digital assets, features, and services is subject to change and may be limited by applicable law and regulation.

SoFi Crypto products and services are offered by SoFi Bank, N.A., a national bank regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. SoFi Bank does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice. Please refer to the SoFi Crypto Account Agreement for additional terms and conditions.

The first-quarter earnings season is officially here.

The season begins with big banks including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup reporting. Given all the macrouncertainty, a read from them will be of particular importance in determining how the U.S. economy is functioning on the ground.

Think of them as the plumbing of the economy. Money flows through them for all sorts of reasons, whether it’s a consumer swiping a credit card for groceries or a small business taking out a loan to expand its operation.

The broader context is important here too: The market has spent the last month repricing to the reality that the massive oil disruption triggered by the Iran war will likely keep inflation elevated. It’s also recognized that the Federal Reserve won’t be in a rush to save the day by lowering interest rates. But if the banks that report this week suggest consumer behavior is shifting — or businesses are pulling back — discussions could shift away from the threat of inflation and toward the risk that consumers will stop spending money.

On the Docket

Monday

•   March Existing Home Sales: Most home transactions in any given month tend to come from the existing market, and as a result set the tone for the broader housing market.

•   Earnings: Fastenal (FAST), Goldman Sachs Group (GS)

Tuesday

•   March NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions.

•   March Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle.

•   Fedspeak: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Semafor World Economy 2026 event, followed by Q&A. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will take part in a Fed fireside chat on rural investment.

•   Earnings: BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC)

Wednesday

•   April Empire State Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   March Import/Export Price Indexes: These indexes track the changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

•   April NAHB Housing Market Index: This index tracks how homebuilders feel about the current and future state of the single-family housing market.

•   Fed Beige Book: This report is released eight times per year and tracks the state of the economy based on qualitative information.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

•   Fedspeak: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the IIF Global Outlook Forum.

•   Earnings: Bank of America (BAC), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Morgan Stanley (MS), M&T Bank (MTB), Progressive (PGR), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC)

Thursday

•   April New York Services Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   March Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The industrial sector accounts for much of the cyclical swings in economic activity.

•   Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver keynote remarks at an event at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York Metropolitan Club, followed by Q&A.

•   Earnings: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), KeyCorp (KEY), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Marsh & McLennan Companies (MRSH), Netflix (NFLX), PepsiCo (PEP), Prologis (PLD), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Travelers Companies (TRV), US Bancorp (USB)

Friday

•   Earnings: Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial (RF), Snap-on (SNA), State Street (STT), Truist Financial (TFC)

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OTM2026041301

Nearly 63 million people have already gotten federal tax refunds averaging over $3,500. Millions more are waiting for their cash.

What should you do with this windfall? With a sum that size, it’s worth thinking through how to maximize its impact.

For a gut check, an Experian survey last month revealed saving is the top priority again this year, with a third of consumers planning to stash their refund away. Another 20% said they’d use the money to pay down debt, 17% would cover necessary expenses, and 10% would invest it. Only 6% said they’ll splurge with it.

Of course, your own strategy will depend on your financial situation, but whatever you choose, you’ll never regret giving your future self a leg up.

Here are five ways to make the most of your refund. You may even decide to kickstart more than one project.

1. Pay down (or eliminate) your credit card balance. There may be no better use for a refund than eliminating costly credit card debt. Carrying a balance from month to month is expensive, especially if you’re only paying the minimum required each month. And it can get out of hand quickly because the interest compounds daily. Once you’ve paid your balance off, try creating a budget to help avoid digging a new hole.

2. Build a financial buffer. If your savings wouldn’t cover at least three months of your living expenses (ideally six months’ worth,) use your refund to shore it up. This will help prepare you for the unexpected – providing a critical safety net if you lose your job, have a medical emergency, or suddenly need a home repair. And if you put it in a high-yield savings account like SoFi’s, you’ll be capitalizing on interest rates too.

Note: Generally you’re better off prioritizing your debt over your savings. But you should build enough savings to cover at least one month’s worth of expenses before you start paying off your credit cards.

3. Jumpstart your retirement, health, or college savings accounts. Investing in your future is a great way to leverage the potential earning power of your money. And it’s more rewarding when there are tax advantages.

Put your refund into a traditional IRA to lower your tax burden. Invest it in a Roth IRA or 529 college plan so that your investment earnings and qualified withdrawals can be tax-free. Or, stash it in a health savings account. The money won’t be taxed at all as long as you use it for eligible healthcare.

4. Pay extra on other debts, like student loans. If you don’t have high interest debt from credit cards or personal loans, consider getting ahead on your student loans, car loans or mortgage payments. You’ll lower your interest burden and be debt-free faster. (There’s no prepayment penalty for paying down federal or private student loans, but check with your lender on other types of loans.)

5. Live a little. (But just a little.) Occasional rewards can keep you motivated, and even improve your chances of achieving your financial goals. If you’re tempted to splurge with your entire refund because it’s been a while since you’ve treated yourself, try borrowing from a popular budgeting rule by using 30% of your refund for wants (tickets to that concert, maybe?) and putting the rest toward something with staying power. Savor the experience knowing that you’re having fun and making your money count.

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