The Consumer Price Index for groceries rose more in April than in any month since mid-2022 — evidence that this year’s spike in oil and fuel prices is spreading through the food supply chain.

In fact, as fallout from the Middle East war drives up the cost of transporting and producing goods, the economy has hit an inflection point: The overall inflation rate is rising faster than average wages for the first time in three years.

So what?

The latest inflation numbers reflect what most of us feel at the register: Paychecks simply aren't stretching as far as they used to. And even before the recent spike, 86% of Americans surveyed by LendingTree were changing how they shopped for groceries.

For anyone who needs some fresh inspo, here are some of our favorite strategies for shielding your budget at the supermarket:

Plug in.

Between digital coupons, free brand loyalty programs, and shopping apps such as Flipp and Fetch, you can often shave meaningful amounts off your bill. And if you have more than one cash-back credit card, make sure to use the one with the highest rate on groceries to maximize every dollar spent.

Prep.

Spending five minutes to take an inventory of your pantry and fridge and make a shopping list can go a long way. For one, you won’t buy perishables you don’t need but forgot you had. And a list can keep you focused and less tempted by impulse buys. Another useful tip: Eat before you head to the market so you’re not motivated by hunger.

Explore buying online.

Speaking of avoiding impulse buys, buying your groceries online could help you stick to your list. The downside is there may be markups or delivery fees — and you won’t get to pick out your own fruits and vegetables — but the tradeoffs could be worthwhile if your priority is sticking to a set budget. It’s an easy way to see your total bill ahead of time.

Ditch the convenience tax.

Kid-friendly snack packs, boxed rice, or premade taco seasoning are convenient, but now may not be the time to pay the extra. Plus, choosing your own ingredients can be healthier.

Use unit prices to compare.

It can be hard to compare prices when package sizes are different. Looking at the unit price (often listed next to the regular price on the shelf pricing label) levels the playing field by showing you the price per pound, ounce, etc. You can also use a unit price calculator like this.

Try (some) store brands.

Sometimes store brands just aren’t the same, granted. But sometimes they are. A Consumer Reports blind taste test of dozens of store vs. name brands revealed that the discount versions of staples like yogurt, peanuts, coffee, and popcorn can be just as good (or better.)

Tread carefully with bulk buys.

Buying larger quantities is a popular money-saving strategy, but only if you use everything you buy. A 2025 LendingTree survey found that 38% of people who bought in bulk often or occasionally threw some of their purchases away. Before you buy in bulk, ask yourself how certain you are it won’t go to waste. And make sure the bulk price is actually cheaper.

Related Reading

Most and Least Expensive Supermarkets (Consumer Reports)

14 Ways to Outsmart Rising Grocery Prices (AARP)

'Cage-free' Eggs May Not Mean What You Think—Here’s How To Avoid Overpaying (Consumer Affairs)

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Last week I wrote about an accelerating economy and the data that makes it difficult to see the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. This week brought April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) readings, both of which came in hotter than expectations. As a surprise to absolutely no one, energy (peach in the chart) played a major part in pushing prices higher.

Starting with CPI, I’m focusing on the headline data because it includes food and energy prices, which are excluded from core measures due to their volatility. Fed officials don’t want to (and shouldn’t) make interest rate changes based on possibly short-lived movements in prices, but the average consumer still suffers from those fluctuations, so they’re important to watch.

Not too long ago, energy was acting as a deflationary force. But in April, it had the largest impact on CPI in years. Consumers, businesses, and policymakers expected the war in Iran to trigger at least a short-term surge in energy prices, but now that we’re in the thick of the increases, the clock is ticking on how long we can call it short-term. At some point, it will meaningfully hurt consumer demand and we won't be able to explain it away.

To set reasonable expectations about how inflation might change — and how high the headline number can go — we decided to look at the average impact oil shocks have had on CPI in the past.

The following chart looks at the 12 months after a surge in oil prices, showing the incremental moves in the headline number and several underlying components. Not surprisingly, energy rises the most, followed by used cars. Core goods in aggregate tend to see a steeper rise than the overall index, which is what pressures consumers and forces them to adjust their spending decisions.

Perhaps the most important takeaway from this research is that the average incremental move in headline CPI 12 months after an oil price shock is 1.5%.

Applying that to the current situation suggests that we will see a 3.9% headline inflation number at some point soon (because pre-war CPI was 2.4%). And April’s was 3.8%.

Again, the 1.5% is an average, not a ceiling, so some periods saw more than that and some saw less. Given the severity of this shock, it wouldn’t surprise me if the inflation impact was above-average.

Wholesale a Whole Lot Worse

Let’s move on to PPI, which measures wholesale inflation — or the prices domestic producers receive for their output. In other words, PPI is the inflation that can be seen before goods and services make it to the consumer level.

PPI also came in above expectations in April, but by a lot more than CPI. The consensus estimate was for 4.8% year-over-year, and the actual number came in at 6.0%. Digging deeper into the drivers, the increases in trade services (blue in the chart) and transportation and warehousing services (magenta) were some of the biggest hot spots. Trade services measure the margins/markups that wholesalers and retailers add to the cost of production — effectively what they charge for the “service” they provide as a retailer. Transportation and warehousing is more straightforward and was mostly affected by the surge in diesel fuel prices.

PPI doesn’t typically make as many headlines as CPI, but some argue it’s even more important because it has the power to foreshadow what could be coming in consumer prices. If wholesalers are increasing their markups and input costs are rising, chances are that will trickle through to CPI in coming months.

On the Fed, Again

While not surprising, these hot inflation prints raised expectations for a Fed interest rate hike in 2026. (They were up to 43% at one point, but are back down around 38% as I write this Wednesday). That still doesn’t suggest a full hike is priced in, but not too long ago we were talking about the probability of two or three cuts this year. These are big swings, and they’re happening at a critical time when a new Fed chair is about to take over.

Although the Fed doesn’t call me for my opinion, I don’t think they should or will hike rates this year. But that’s not the important part of this picture — the important part is that the volatility in rate expectations is going to upset markets in the meantime.

I don’t think this inflation scare is something to sound the economic alarm bells on yet, but it is likely to cool down growth prospects for at least some of 2026. Since the beginning of the oil supply shock, the market story has revolved around how long it would last and whether businesses and consumers would experience demand destruction due to increased inflation. That remains the story today, and is a question no one has an answer to.

SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance, and past performance is no indication of future success. This information isn’t financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on specific financial needs, goals and risk appetite.

Communication of SoFi Wealth LLC an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Liz Thomas is a Registered Representative of SoFi Securities and Investment Advisor Representative of SoFi Wealth. Form ADV 2A is available at www.sofi.com/legal/adv.

On the one hand, the longer you take to pay off high-interest credit card balances, the more it costs you in interest. On the other hand, without savings to fall back on in an emergency, you’d probably have to turn to your credit card anyway, which would only redig the hole.

It’s a common conundrum — even when the U.S. cost of living isn’t creating the financial squeeze that it is today. Between surging gas prices, rising electric bills, and food inflation, there’s a lot competing for each paycheck.

In fact, only 47% of U.S. adults surveyed by Bankrate in December said they would be able to cover a $1,000 emergency expense without borrowing money or cutting back on something else. And 29% said they had less in their emergency savings than they did a year earlier.

So what?

When you’re juggling debt and rising costs, it’s hard to feel financially prepared for anything, let alone a layoff or sudden expense. But having a clear plan — with numbers — can help you chip away at your goals.

Brian Walsh, the head of financial planning at SoFi, recommends a starter kit approach. First, save enough to cover one month’s worth of basic living expenses (while still making your minimum credit card payments, of course). So if your rent, food, utilities and other essentials total $3,000 a month, that should be your target.

Once you’ve got that much saved, switch to putting any extra cash toward your credit card(s). Return to saving only after you’ve paid off your balances.

“For most people, credit card debt should be the first priority because it can become such a slippery slope,” said Walsh, a Certified Financial PlannerⓇ. “The exception is if you don’t have any emergency savings at all. You need that financial airbag to absorb any initial impact.”

Paying off your credit card debt

Credit card balances can become especially difficult to escape because interest charges continue compounding in the background. If at all possible, switch to using only debit cards or cash until you’ve paid off your balances. (Because it’s a lot easier to dig yourself out of a hole if no one’s throwing dirt back in your way.)

Walsh also recommends paying off one card at a time so you can easily see your progress — and stay motivated. (Just keep making minimum required payments on every card.) It’s also worth exploring whether consolidating your credit card debt with a personal or home equity loan could lower your overall interest costs.

Working on your savings

It may take some time, but once you’ve paid off your credit card debt, take a moment to congratulate yourself. If you can avoid falling back into a debt trap, getting rid of this burden can pay dividends for years to come.

Then turn your attention to your emergency savings. Generally speaking, you want to work toward enough to cover at least three to six months’ worth of living expenses. If that number feels impossibly far away, give yourself some grace. You don’t have to do it all at once.

“A lot of people feel pressure to solve everything immediately,” Walsh said. “But building financial stability is usually a slow, steady, step-by-step process.”

A few ways to make the saving process feel more doable:

•   Even if it’s just $25 per week, set up an automatic deposit straight from your paycheck. (SoFi’s free budget tool can help with this.)

•   Open a high-yield savings account (like SoFi’s) to maximize the interest you’re earning on your savings.

•   Review your expenses to see where you might be able to cut back, even a little. Monthly subscriptions are low-hanging fruit: $10 a month might not seem like much, but if you find five services you barely use, that’s $50 that can go straight into your savings.

•   If you get a raise, put half of it straight into your savings — before you even feel the difference in your take-home pay.

Related Reading

•   Sallie Krawcheck: Building an Emergency Fund Before Paying Off Your Credit Card Debt Is Bad Advice (CNBC)

•   What Is Debt Consolidation and When Is It a Good Idea? (Investopedia)

•   5 Things to Do If You're Worried About a Recession (SoFi)

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An individual retirement account (IRA), on the other hand, is less visible. It’s not linked to your job, you have to set it up on your own, and there’s no chance for an employer to match your contributions.

So how is it that IRAs hold the single largest pile of retirement savings in the U.S.?

Because people change jobs. And when people leave a job where they have a 401(k), they often roll their funds into an IRA to either consolidate their assets or expand their investment options.

In short: Much of the wealth in IRAs is a byproduct of workplace plans, even though IRAs are intended for people who’ve been left out of workplace plans. This irony could help explain why President Trump recently announced plans to make it easier for these people (e.g. the self-employed) to open IRAs.

How big is this wealth? At the end of last year, Americans held $19.2 trillion in IRAs — $5 trillion more than they held in 401(k)s and similar workplace plans, according to data from the Investment Company Institute, a trade group for the asset management industry. That represents 39% of total retirement assets — up from 23% 25 years ago.

Let’s examine how IRAs fit into the retirement ecosystem and how you can maximize their value.

What’s Driving IRA Growth

Roughly 58 million households, or 44% of U.S. households, had some kind of IRA as of mid-2024, according to ICI data. IRA assets were 13% of all household financial assets, up from 8% 20 years ago and 5% 30 years ago.

Part of the growth stems from the growth in workplace plans. As more employers have offered tax-advantaged retirement savings options, their employees have taken advantage. New government rules even require most employers to automatically enroll their workers unless they actively opt-out.

Then there’s the workforce churn factor. An estimated 60 to 70 million workers leave their employers each year, according to LIMRA, a life insurance trade group. Government data shows younger Baby Boomers, for instance, held an average of 12.9 jobs by the time they were 58.

Job changers might choose to roll their workplace account into an IRA for several reasons:

•   Flexibility: IRAs may have more investment options than 401(k)s and similar workplace plans.

•   Simplicity: IRAs can be a landing spot for multiple rollovers.

•   Tax treatment: If you convert to a Roth IRA (more on that in a moment), you take the tax hit now versus after you retire.

•   Cost: Depending on the employer plan, an IRA could charge lower administrative fees.

IRAs vs Workplace Retirement Accounts

Besides pensions, 401(k)s — or similar plans like 403(b)s for teachers — and IRAs are the two main types of retirement savings accounts. They both have tax advantages that encourage saving for retirement, but they work differently.

Anyone with earned income can open an IRA, whereas you must have a job that offers a 401(k)-type plan to participate in one. You can contribute much more each year to a 401(k), however, and many employers add their own money to 401(k)s by matching a portion of employee contributions.

Note: Beginning next year, low-income IRA savers will be eligible for a government match of as much as $1,000. And some IRA providers (including SoFi) now offer a match of 1% or more.

IRA Tax Treatment

The two most common types of IRAs are traditional and Roth. Deciding which one to use comes down to a bet: Will your income tax bracket be higher or lower in retirement?

If you’re in a higher tax bracket now than you expect to be once you retire, a traditional IRA may be the best option because you pay taxes when you withdraw money from your account. That also means your contributions are tax-deductible unless you or a spouse are covered by a workplace plan and your income exceeds certain limits.

Roth IRAs flip the tax equation: You pay taxes on contributions right away in order to take eligible tax-free withdrawals in retirement. You would typically do this if you think you’re in a lower tax bracket then you will be in retirement. But this means there’s an income limit: Unlike traditional IRAs, you can’t contribute to a Roth if your income exceeds a certain threshold. In 2026, for example, it’s $168,000 for a single filer.

If you aren’t sure which would benefit you more, you can have both. (Just know your total contribution can’t exceed the IRS limit.)

Contributing to an IRA vs. a 401(k)

While rolling money into an IRA is common, not everyone actively contributes to them. Among U.S. households surveyed in mid-2024, 41% of Roth IRA holders and 21% of traditional IRA holders said they had contributed the previous year, according to ICI.

Although some of those people were already retired, others said they were already saving enough in their workplace plan or just didn’t have any more to save after those contributions.

But depending on how much of your budget you can spare — and your income and employment benefits — using an IRA in addition to a 401(k) can potentially fast track your retirement savings. Here are some of the tax implications and other factors to carefully consider:

1.    If your 401(k) plan comes with an employer match, it’s free money, so you’ll probably want to contribute at least enough to maximize that benefit. Just make sure to check the vesting schedule first if you’re not sure how long you’ll be working there.

2.    An IRA may have more investment options than a 401(k).

3.    The federal laws governing 401(k)s and IRAs are different, which may leave IRA holders more vulnerable under certain circumstances, like bankruptcy.

4.    The rules around tapping into a 401(k) prior to retirement tend to be stricter than for an IRA. With an IRA, for instance, the 10% penalty is waived if you make qualifying withdrawals to pay for college or buy a house.

5.    Rolling funds into an IRA doesn’t count toward your IRS contribution limits. But there are a variety of rollover rules to follow.

6.    A tax adviser can help you gauge the best strategy for your situation.

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These interactive maps below show where Americans can travel without a prior visa and how the U.S. access stacks up with the rest of the world.

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After the whirlwind of the past few weeks, you can forgive traders for enjoying the relatively light calendar this week. The earnings deluge has passed, and we have a month before the next Federal Reserve meeting. We will presumably see Kevin Warsh confirmed as the next Fed chair, but that’s been baked in for a while and shouldn’t have much of an impact on markets.

What could have an impact are the CPI and PPI inflation reports, which are scheduled to come out Tuesday and Wednesday. The question is whether the oil shock stemming from the Iran war is spreading to other parts of the economy.

More specifically, investors will want to know whether farmers and manufacturers are absorbing the higher costs of production or passing them on to everyday consumers. Given that a resolution to the war isn’t in sight, the new data will help us gauge the path of inflation.

Naturally, there are ramifications for Fed officials as well. If inflation comes in high, they may start discussing the possibility of raising benchmark interest rates. But so far, despite their divided decision last month (some wanted to continue hinting at future cuts, while others wanted to remove any such suggestions) they’ve indicated that rates are probably going to stay where they are for a while.

On the Docket

Monday

•   April Existing Home Sales: Most home transactions in any given month tend to come from the existing market, and as a result set the tone for the broader housing market.

•   Earnings: Simon Property Group (SPG), Twenty-First Century Fox Class A (FOXA), STERIS (STE), Mosaic (MOS), Constellation Energy Co (CEG), Fox Class B (FOX)

Tuesday

•   April NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions.

•   April Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers.

•   April Treasury Statement: This summarizes the U.S. federal government budget by tracking government revenues and expenditures.

•   Fedspeak: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Greater Rockford

•   Earnings: Qnity Electronics (Q), Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)

Wednesday

•   April Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

•   Earnings: Cisco (CSCO)

Thursday

•   April Import/Export Price Indexes: These indexes track the changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

•   April Retail Sales: This measures spending at retail stores and is a key indicator of consumer demand.

•   Earnings: Applied Materials (AMAT)

Friday

•   May Empire State Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   April Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The industrial sector accounts for much of the cyclical swings in economic activity.

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•   Take note of what you’re wasting. Is it spoiled herbs and salad greens, leftovers from dinner, or your kid’s lunchbox items that aren’t getting eaten? Being mindful of what it is you’re wasting is half the battle as you adjust your habits.

•   Take a quick inventory before you shop. Check your fridge before shopping to avoid buying produce, meat, and other perishables you already have.

•   Check your calendar before you shop. When you’ve got two work dinners coming up and your kids are at sleepaway camp, it’s probably not the best week to buy a huge loaf of fresh bread or all the ingredients for that new summer salad recipe.

•   Schedule your leftovers. When you have leftovers from a meal, take a minute to consider your schedule for the next three days. If you’re not going to be home much, consider putting them straight in the freezer.

•   Be careful about buying in bulk. Prices can be lower if you buy bigger quantities, but you’re not saving money if you don’t end up eating the extra food. Skip bulk buys you may not finish.

•   Be creative about using leftovers or other groceries that need to get used. You don’t have to like eating leftovers to use leftovers. Turn the rest of those veggies from last night’s dinner into a soup or make an egg scramble with unused sausage. Make a stock with wilted veggies or a tasty quick bread from mushy bananas. Chances are most of it is still edible. And all of it is paid for.

•   Make sure you’re storing produce properly. Keep greens wrapped with paper towels, tomatoes and bananas on the counter, potatoes and onions in cool dark places, and herbs in water. Keep frozen fruits and veggies handy. Wasting food wastes money, time, and resources. It hits your budget and clogs landfills. Plus, getting more from what you already have feels good. If you save $20 a week, your cell phone bill or a month’s gym membership is covered. Or some of next week’s groceries — enough to buy those stir-fry ingredients again.

Related Reading

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In the last two weeks, the national average for a gallon of regular unleaded has climbed 53 cents to $4.56, according to AAA data released Thursday. In California, the most expensive state, the average has soared past $6. All told, the average price is up more than $1.50 a gallon since the war began at the end of February.

This is now clearly more than a blip — and could be forcing some trade-offs. If you have to be on the road, you may be cutting other parts of your budget to compensate; If you don’t, a simple errand may now be a cost-benefit calculation.

So what?

You may have more control over your gas costs than you realize. Even if you can’t drive any less, how you drive and use your car play a big role in determining how far each gallon of gas can take you.

Using fuel economy stats from the U.S. Energy Department, we crunched some numbers to help you gauge whether it’s worth making some changes. Some of these steps could even help you offset the entire war premium on gas.

Lighten your load.

It may be tempting to keep that jumbo bag of dog food in your car until the last possible minute, but there’s a cost to carrying around extra weight. And the smaller the vehicle, the bigger the impact.

•   Every 100 pounds of extra weight can reduce your gas mileage by 1%, costing you nearly 5 cents more a gallon at today’s prices.

•   Strapping a cargo box to the roof is even a bigger drag (think: wind resistance,) reducing your fuel economy by 2% to 17% — or between 9 and 78 cents a gallon — on the highway.

Watch your speed.

Want to get somewhere faster? It’s going to cost you. The faster you drive, the more resistance your car has to push through, reducing your fuel economy.

Although fuel economy is different with different vehicles, it generally tends to drop off rapidly when you’re driving over 50 miles per hour. The Energy Department says you can assume each 5 mph over 50 mph is like paying an extra 7% per gallon of gas. By that math, going 70 mph instead of 60 mph on a 60-mile trip saves you 10 minutes but costs you 64 cents more a gallon. Pushing your speed to 80 would shave 15 minutes from your trip but cost an extra $1.28 a gallon.

Go easy.

Aggressive driving, like braking fast or hitting the gas hard, can lower gas mileage by 15% to 30% on highways and 10% to 40% in stop-and-go traffic. At today’s gas prices, that could cost as much as $1.82 more per gallon.

The Energy Department recommends using cruise control on the highway to help maintain a constant speed.

Turn your car off when you’re parked.

Idling burns fuel — roughly a quarter- to a half-gallon per hour, depending on engine size and AC use. And get this: Idling for any more than 10 seconds uses more fuel than stopping and restarting your engine.

Roll down your windows briefly before turning on your AC.

Although hot weather can help with fuel efficiency, rolling down the windows or using air conditioning can drag it back down. Under very hot conditions, using AC can reduce fuel economy by more than 25%, particularly on short trips. To reduce demand, the Energy Department recommends driving with the windows open for a short time before turning on the AC.

Keep your tires properly inflated and don’t skimp on oil.

If you’ve ever tried riding a bike with quasi-flat tires, you know you have to pedal harder to make progress. The same idea applies to your car. Underinflated tires generate more rolling resistance. For every 1 PSI (pounds per square inch) drop in average tire pressure, gas mileage can drop by 0.2%.

(Pro tip: The proper tire pressure for your vehicle is usually listed on a sticker in the driver's side door jamb or the glove box.)

Using the manufacturer's recommended grade of motor oil can also improve mileage by 1%-2%.

Related Reading

5 Reasons to Pump the Brakes: The True Costs of Speeding (AAA)

Why Gas Prices Could Soon Cool Drastically In These 5 States (The Hill)

Gas Cost Trip Calculator Table with Examples (SoFi)

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As investors, we are constantly evaluating new data releases and the headlines that follow. Recently, headlines have skewed heavily toward the increased uncertainty and volatility caused by the war in the Middle East, but there is some data that’s sending a more upbeat message. This makes expectations for the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate even more interesting this year.

For starters, the labor market is showing signs of life after months of very low activity raised concerns that it was weakening. Payroll growth has accelerated in the most recent readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and ADP. The March BLS report saw a strong rebound from a very weak February reading, and ADP payrolls for April came in at their strongest level since Jan 2025.

While this data is usually well covered in news headlines, one thing that’s not typically covered is the component of the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report that tracks hiring rates. In April, the number of overall hires rose and there was an improvement in the hiring rate after many months of being flat-to-down. Both registered their highest levels since early 2023 despite no increase in job openings. This suggests that openings are being filled more quickly.

We’re not hearing much about labor improving because it’s not obvious in the headline numbers. It’s also more of a recovery after a soft patch than it is a newfound reacceleration. Regardless, we have to respect the data: We’re seeing increased activity in labor, which is a positive message.

Growing Through It

The labor market is an important gauge of economic strength, and it feeds into economic growth: As long as consumers are employed, and as long as businesses can find efficient labor, growth is likely to remain intact.

We just got the read of first-quarter GDP, which came in at 2%. That’s slightly below expectations, but healthy nonetheless. Beyond that, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast is a widely watched GDP expectations number. In its most recent reading on May 5, second-quarter GDP is tracking toward a considerably stronger 3.7%.

This can still change a lot before the end of the quarter, but positive contributions from consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and inventories indicate strong underlying demand. According to the current situation, growth is in a good place.

Earnings Keep Hitting the Jackpot

At this point, first-quarter earnings season is almost complete and to say earnings growth surprised to the upside would be an understatement. With roughly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, year-over-year earnings growth is a whopping 25.7%, compared to expectations of 13.1% growth at the end of March. Earnings for the index overall were almost 19% higher than expected, and all 11 sectors have reported positive earnings surprises.

The sectors most tied to AI are still the main contributors to earnings growth, which isn’t surprising. But there are other sectors showing strength as well, which makes this fundamental picture even more attractive.

One could argue that even earnings are starting to look inflated due to AI, and that may end up being true. But right now, I’m not willing to fight the trend and continued tailwind that technology is bringing to the U.S. economy.

It’s Only May

It’s not lost on me that we’re not even five months through the year, and we’re still dealing with sharply higher oil prices and uncertainty around the effects of the war. Safe to say it’s not lost on the Federal Reserve either.

We started 2026 with a market that expected two to three rate cuts by the end of the year, but as I write this, it’s pricing in a very small probability of a rate hike. Much of the volatility in rate expectations has been driven by inflation concerns, but when we layer on the stronger data I just laid out, it’s looking less and less likely that we see any Fed rate cuts this year.

I view hikes as highly unlikely, and would expect the Fed to use other tools (e.g. balance sheet reduction or hawkish signaling) to tighten conditions if officials deem it necessary. But with a new Fed chair and a committee that’s very divided, holding steady on rates for the foreseeable future seems like the only plausible option.

SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance, and past performance is no indication of future success. This information isn’t financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on specific financial needs, goals and risk appetite.

Communication of SoFi Wealth LLC an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Liz Thomas is a Registered Representative of SoFi Securities and Investment Advisor Representative of SoFi Wealth. Form ADV 2A is available at www.sofi.com/legal/adv.

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

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From one-click shopping to “set it and forget it” bill pay, automated financial tools have become go-to time-savers. But is there a downside to relying on technology too much?

A new trend emerging on social media — “friction-maxxing” — is challenging the notion that easier is always better. Whether in our personal, work, or financial lives, the idea is that taking fewer shortcuts, slowing down, and making more intentional decisions can improve critical thinking skills, help us focus, and make more room to build confidence and resilience.

With finances specifically, proponents suggest adding friction can help you avoid overspending, catch financial leaks, and learn more about money.

So what?

In the digital age, algorithms, automation, and AI are built into much of everyday life, and there’s no disputing the benefits of technology on modern finances. But if the most convenient option isn’t always serving your best interests, turning the friction dial up could be a worthwhile exercise.

A good rule of thumb: Bump up the friction when you want more control over undesirable impulses (like late-night ordering from Doordash), but reduce friction when automation or outsourcing helps support good habits (like automating deposits to your retirement or emergency savings accounts).

Here are a few friction-maxxing steps to consider:

Spending speed bumps

Eating sweets is usually easier to avoid when you don’t have them in your kitchen. The same idea can be true of spending. A NerdWallet writer cut her monthly spending by $300 by blocking social media and shopping apps from her phone during weeknight evenings.

Other ways to add friction to spending:

•   Remove your credit card info from your digital wallet, browser, or shopping apps.

•   Re-route tempting emailed promotions to a separate folder you only check once a week.

•   Perform “time cost” math before you buy. The realization that “this pair of sneakers equals four hours of work” adds an “is it really worth it?” gut check into the decision.

Manual spot checks

Automation is great, but sometimes it can make it easier to avoid a close look at our cash flow, both in and out.

•   Add some quality control to your automated bill payments by printing out your regular bills and bank statements (yes, on paper!) every few months. A closer look (at something bigger than the tiny print on your phone) can help you spot sneaky fees, rate increases, errors, or charges for services you no longer use.

•   Categorize your Amazon orders. The eight “Amazon” appearances on your credit card statement don’t tell you anything about what you’ve actually purchased. Do a manual audit of your account every few months to add up your spending on household items, beauty, electronics, toys, etc. Or for a real gut check, categorize by “wants” versus “needs.”

Build in more time

•   Set up guardrails to limit impulsive decisions during stock market swings. One idea: Set a rule that major decisions or early withdrawals warrant a phone call to a financial advisor first.

•   For any non-essential online purchase, commit to holding off for 48 hours before clicking the "buy" button. You may find that you don’t really need it (or have forgotten all about it) after the waiting period.

Of course, too much “maxxing” can have downsides. For example, unplugging entirely can let important tasks slip through the cracks. And it can be stressful if you end up overthinking a decision. Plus, over-restricting something that’s convenient could feel… well, miserable.

The bottom line: Friction forces you to take thoughtful pauses. The idea is not to torture yourself but think about strategically placing speed bumps that can help you rebalance your life.

Related Reading

•   'Friction Maxxing' Goes Viral—Here's What It Means For Your Spending (Investopedia)

•   Why Friction-Maxxing Could Be Good for Your Tech Usage (Mashable)

•   How to Navigate Financial Advice in the Digital Age (SoFi)

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