InvestGen Archives | Page 48 of 62

Q: What is the Stock Market Power Hour?

With the Power Hour, stock market traders have a concentrated time to leverage specific market opportunities. That goes for anyone trading common market securities like stocks, index funds, commodities, currencies, and derivatives, especially options and futures.

Q: When Does Stock Power Hour Occur?

Most market observers land on two specific times, the Power Hour can be the first hour of trading (from 9:30 to 10:30 EST) or the last hour of trading (3:30 to 4:30 EST).

Sep

2023

What Are Power Hour Stocks? What to Know When Trading

Power Hour Stocks: What Are They and How Do You Trade Them?

By Brian O'Connell | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

While the U.S. stock market is technically open from 9:30am to 4pm ET, some times of day are more active than others, and go by the moniker “power hour.”

Depending on who you talk to, the power hour can be the first hour of trading (from 9:30 to 10:30 ET) or the last hour of trading (3:30 to 4:30 ET).

Derivative traders may argue that the time is even more specific, such as at 3:30 on the third Friday of every month in March, June, September, and December when option, futures and index contracts all expire on the same day. They call that the “triple witching hour.”

Here’s a closer look at the power hour, and what it might mean to you.

What Is the Stock Market Power Hour?

During the trading day, the power hour is when traders have a concentrated time to leverage specific market opportunities. That goes for anyone trading common market securities like stocks, index funds, commodities, currencies, and derivatives, especially options trading and futures.

When Does Stock Power Hour Occur?

The term power hour is subjective, but most market observers land on two specific times in defining the term:

• The first trading hour of the market day. This is when news flows in overnight from across the world that can impact portfolio positions that investors may want to leverage.

• The last hour of the trading day. This is when sellers may be anxious to close a position for the day, and buyers may be in a position to pounce and buy low when selling activity is high.

One commonality between the first hour of a stock market trading session and the last hour is that trading volatility tends to be higher than it is during the middle of a normal trading day. That’s primarily because traders are looking to buy or sell when demand for trading is robust, and that usually happens at or near the market opening or the market close.

Each power hour brings something different to the table, when it comes to potential investing opportunities.

💡 Quick Tip: When people talk about investment risk, they mean the risk of losing money. Some investments are higher risk, some are lower. Be sure to bear this in mind when investing online.

Power Hour Start of Day

The first hour of any trading session tends to be the most active, as traders react to overnight news and data numbers and stake out advantageous positions.

For example, an investor may have watched financial or business news the previous night, and is now reacting to a story, interview, or prediction.

Some traders refer to this scenario as “stupid money” trading, as conventional wisdom holds that one news event or one interview with a Fortune 500 CEO shouldn’t sway an investor from a strategy-guided long-term investment position. The fact is, by the time the average investor reacts to overnight data, it’s likely the chance for profit is already gone.

Here’s why: Most professional day traders were likely already aware of the news, and have already priced that information into their portfolios. As the price goes up on a stock based on artificial demand, the professional traders typically step in and take the other side of the trade, knowing that in the long run, investing money will drift back to the original trade price for the stock and the professional investor will likely end up making money.

Power Hour End of Day

The last hour of the trading day may also come with high market volatility, which tends to generate more stock trading. Many professional traders tend to trade actively in the morning session and step back during mid-day trading, when volatility is lower and the market is quieter than in the first and last hours of the day.

Regular traders can perk up at the last hour of trading, where trading is typically more frequent and the size of trades generally climb as more buyers and sellers engage before the trading session closes out. Just as in the first hour of the trading day, amateur investors tend to wade into the markets, buying and selling on the day’s news.

That activity can attract bigger, more seasoned traders who may be looking to take advantage of ill-considered positions by average investors, which increases market trading toward the close.

Red Flags and Triggers to Look for During Power Hour Trading

For any investor looking to gain an advantage during power hour trading, the idea is to look for specific market news that can spike market activity and heighten the chances of making a profit in the stock market.

These “triggers” may signal an imminent power hour market period, when trading can grow more volatile.

💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.

Any Earnings Report

Publicly-traded companies are obligated to release company earnings on a quarterly basis. When larger companies release earnings, the news has a tendency to move the financial markets. Depending on whether the earnings news comes in the morning or after hours, investors can typically expect higher trading to follow. That could lead to heavier power hour trading.

News on Big “Daily Gainers”

Stock market trading activity can grow more intense when specific economic or company news pushes a single large stock — or stock sector — into volatile trading territory.

For instance, if a technology company X announces a new product release, investors may want to pounce and buy the stock, hoping for a significant share price uptick. That can lead to higher volume trading stock X, making the company and the market more volatile (especially later in the day), thus ensuring an active power hour trading time.

Reserve/Economic News

Major economic news, like jobs reports, consumer sentiment, inflation rates, and gross domestic product (GDP) reports, are released in the morning. Big news from the Federal Reserve typically comes later in the day, after a key speech by a Fed officer or news of an interest rate move after a Fed Open Markets Committee meeting.

Make no mistake, news on both fronts can be big market movers, and can lead to even more powerful power hour trading sessions. Anticipation of huge economic news, like a Federal Reserve interest rate hike or the release of the U.S. government’s monthly non-farm labor report, can move markets before the actual news is released, potentially fueling an even larger trading surge after the news is released, either at the open (for government economic news) or at the end of the trading day (for Federal Reserve news).

Triple Witching Hour Events

Quarterly triple witching hours — when stock options, futures and index contracts expire on four separate Fridays during the year — historically have had a substantial impact on market activity on those Friday afternoons, in advance of the contracts expiring at the days’ end.

When options contracts involving larger companies expire, market activity on a Friday afternoon prior to closing can be especially volatile. Thus, any late afternoon power hour on a triple-witching-hour Friday can be highly active, and may be one of the largest drivers of power hour trading during the year.

The Takeaway

The concept of a stock market “power hour” is very real, but so is the risk of trading in more volatile markets when power hours tend to be more active.

Consequently, it’s a good idea to give power hours a wide berth if you’re not familiar with trading in choppy markets, where the risk of losing money is high when power trading activity is at its highest.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

Photo credit: iStock/Tatiana Sviridova

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Aug

2023

Stock Market Fluctuations Explained

By Pam O’Brien | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | No Comments

The stock market can go up or down based on a number of different factors, including consumer confidence, worries about inflation, and supply and demand. As an investor, it’s important to understand market fluctuation and how it works, and to know how much fluctuation is normal.

Why do stocks fluctuate? Read on to learn more about market volatility and stock fluctuation.

4 Top Causes of Stock Market Fluctuations

The stock market fluctuation definition is when stock prices rise or fall. So what causes this? The stock market can move up and down due to a variety of factors, including:

Supply and Demand

The prices of stocks depend on supply and demand. Supply is how much of a good — in this case, a share of stock — is available for sale. Demand is how much consumers want to buy that stock. Prices rise when the supply of shares of stock for sale is not enough to meet investors’ demands. When investors demand for shares falls, so does the price of the shares.

Overall, the stock market fluctuates because investors are buying and selling stocks in such a way, and in such volume, that stock prices make a large move in one direction or another.

Inflation

Concerns about inflation may cause investors to become bearish and stop buying stocks, which may make the market go down. That’s because during periods of inflation, consumer spending tends to slow, and corporate profits may suffer. Inflation can inject uncertainty and volatility into the market.

Economic Indicators

Economic indicators are data that analysts use to help judge the health of the economy. These indicators can, in turn, affect stock market fluctuation. They typically include such things as the Consumer Price Index, unemployment numbers, interest rates, and home sales. If prices, interest rates, and unemployment rise, chances are good that there may be stock fluctuation.

Company Performance

How well a company is doing can affect the price of its stock and potentially cause market fluctuations. If the company is expanding its operations and reporting a profit, for instance, investors’ demand for the stock may rise, along with the price of the stock. Conversely, if there are concerns about the company’s financial health, or it reports a loss, demand for the stock may drop, and so generally will the price.

Pros and Cons of Market Fluctuations

There are benefits and drawbacks to market fluctuations. These are some of the advantages and disadvantages to consider when the market becomes volatile.

Market Fluctuations
Pros	Cons
May be able to purchase stocks at lower prices	Could lose money by selling stocks at a loss
Opportunity to diversify assets	Risk of falling prey to financial scams may be greater

Pros of Market Fluctuations

• Chance to purchase shares at lower prices. When stock prices go down, it may be a good opportunity for investors to buy shares for less. Investing in a down market could be beneficial.

• Incentive to diversify your assets. When the market is volatile, it’s a prime time to look over your asset allocation and make any prudent changes. For instance, you may want to reduce some of your holdings in riskier assets and move them over to safer investments in case the market drops.

Cons of Market Fluctuations

• Might end up selling stocks at a loss. Instead of panicking, selling your shares, and losing money, you may be better off waiting out the fluctuations if you can. When the market goes back up, you may be able to recoup what you paid for the stock.

• There may be a greater risk of financial scams. During a time of market volatility you may receive offers that advertise risk-free returns on certain investments. Be alert to possible fraud, and don’t let your emotions get the better of you, or you could lose money.

💡 Quick Tip: Before opening any investment account, consider what level of risk you are comfortable with. If you’re not sure, start with more conservative investments, and then adjust your portfolio as you learn more.

Volatility Means the Stock Market Is Working

Although it’s difficult to watch the value of your portfolio drop, stock market volatility is a normal part of stock market investing. In fact, volatility is natural, and it shows that the stock market is working as it should.

Here’s why: The more investors weigh in — by actively buying and selling stocks — the more accurate the prices of stocks will ultimately be. Essentially, it’s a weighing of information about the “correct” price of a stock from many different investors.

It’s also helpful to remember that volatility doesn’t just relate to rising stock prices — it also refers to plummeting stock prices. When the stock market makes a surge upward, that is also considered stock market fluctuation.

What Is a Normal Amount of Stock Market Fluctuation?

This is a notoriously hard question to answer because really, almost any amount of market fluctuation is possible.

The best guide for understanding what is normal (and what is not) is to look at what has happened in the past. While past performance is never a guarantee of future financial success, it’s helpful to look at the data.

The most commonly cited pool of data is the S&P 500. The S&P 500 can give a good historical gauge of stock market movement.

Since World War II — the “modern” stock market era, the S&P 500 has seen 12 drops in the stock market of over 20%.

Peak (Start)	Return
May 29, 1946	-30%
August 2, 1956	-22%
December 12, 1961	-28%
February 9, 1966	-22%
November 29, 1968	-36%
January 11, 1973	-48%
November 28, 1980	-27%
August 25, 1987	-34%
July 16, 1990	-20%
March 27, 2000	-49%
October 9, 2007	-57%
February 19, 2020	33.93%

You’ll notice that a big drop in the stock market happens somewhat regularly. And smaller fluctuations of 5% or 10% down happen much more frequently than that.

💡 Quick Tip: When you’re actively investing in stocks, it’s important to ask what types of fees you might have to pay. For example, brokers may charge a flat fee for trading stocks, or require some commission for every trade. Taking the time to manage investment costs can be beneficial over the long term.

What Does Stock Market Volatility Mean to You As an Investor?

How you deal with volatility as an investor depends on your tolerance for risk. What to know about risk is that if you can’t afford losses, volatility could be a time of fear and uncertainty for you. But if you have a higher tolerance for risk, you may see volatility as a potential opportunity.

Risk Tolerance in Investing

Risk tolerance is the amount of risk you’re willing to take with investments. Volatility in the market could directly affect your risk tolerance. For instance, if you have a higher risk tolerance, you may be willing to risk money for the possibility of high returns. If you have a lower risk tolerance, you’ll likely be looking for safer investments with more of a guaranteed return.

Your age, your financial goals, and the amount of money you have impact your risk tolerance. If you’re saving for retirement, and nearing retirement age, your risk tolerance will be lower. In this case, you’ll want to practice risk management with safer investments. If you’re in your 20s or 30s, however, you may have higher risk tolerance because you have more years to recoup any money you may lose.

Investing With SoFi

Choosing the right investment strategy depends on your goals, risk tolerance, and your personal situation. Every investor needs to manage their portfolio in a way that fits their needs during periods of market volatility and as well during times of stability.

Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

FAQ

Why does the stock market fluctuate?

The stock market fluctuates for a number of different reasons, but the biggest overall factor is supply and demand. Prices of stocks rise when the supply of shares for sale is not enough to meet investors’ demands. When investors’ demand for shares falls, so does the price of the shares. This causes volatility.

What is the average market fluctuation?

Markets fluctuate fairly frequently. The average fluctuation is about 15% during a year.

How long do market fluctuations last?

How long market fluctuations last depends on the reason for the fluctuations and how big the fluctuations are. Remember, it’s normal to have some periods of volatility in the stock market. Diversifying your portfolio may help you manage risk and stay on track with your investment goals during times of uncertainty.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

Aug

2023

What Is the VIX Volatility Index? How Investors Can Use It

By Rebecca Lake | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

The Cboe Global Markets Volatility Index, known as the VIX for short, is a tool used to measure implied volatility in the market. In simple terms, the VIX index tells investors how professional investors feel about the market at any given time.

This can be helpful for gauging and assessing risk in order to capitalize on anticipated market movements. Depending on which way the VIX is trending, it may throw off buy or sell signals to investors.

The volatility index is sometimes referred to as the “fear index” or “fear gauge” because traders rely on it as an indicator of the fearfulness of sentiment surrounding the market. While not a crystal ball, understanding the VIX and how it works can provide a useful predictor of investor behavior.

What Is the VIX Index?

The VIX Index is a real-time calculation designed to measure expected volatility in the U.S. stock market. One of the most recognized barometers of fluctuations in financial markets, the VIX measures how much volatility investing experts expect to see in the market over the next 30 days. This measurement reflects real-time quotes of S&P 500 Index (SPX) call option and put option prices.

Stock volatility represents the up and down price movements of various financial instruments that occur over a set period of time. The larger and more frequent price swings, the higher the volatility.

Implied volatility reflects market sentiment and which way it expects a security or financial instrument’s price to move.

💡 Quick Tip: All investments come with some degree of risk — and some are riskier than others. Before investing online, decide on your investment goals and how much risk you want to take.

How Does the VIX Work?

The VIX Index is a forward-looking trend indicator used to quantify expectations for future volatility. Cboe designed the index to estimate expected volatility by aggregating weighted prices of S&P 500 Index puts and calls over a wide range of strike prices.

In options trading, the strike price represents the price at which a trader can exercise an option. Call options give an investor the right to buy shares of an underlying security; put options give them the right to sell shares of an underlying security.

The Cboe Options Exchange (Cboe Options) calculates the VIX Index using standard SPX options and weekly SPX options listed on the exchange. Standard SPX options expire on the third Friday of every month. Weekly SPX options expire on all other Fridays. VIX index calculations include:

• SPX options with Friday expirations

• SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to their Friday expiration

The index weights these options to establish a constant-maturity, 30-day measure of the amount of volatility the S&P 500 Index is likely to produce. The VIX index works differently from the Black Scholes model, which estimates theoretical value for derivatives and other financial instruments based on a number of factors, including volatility, time, and the price of underlying assets.

The VIX is one of seven inputs used by CNN to determine its Fear and Greed Index.

What Does the VIX Tell You?

In securities trading, the VIX index is a measure of market sentiment. The volatility index has a negative correlation with stock market returns. If the VIX moves up that means investor fear is on the rise. The S&P 500 tends to see price drops in that scenario as investors may begin to sell off securities to hedge against expanded volatility that may be on the horizon.

On the other hand, when the VIX declines, that could signal a decline in investor fear as well. In that situation, the S&P may be experiencing lower levels of volatility and higher prices as investors buy and sell with confidence. This doesn’t necessarily mean that prices will remain high, however, as volatility is fluid and can increase or decrease sharply due to changing market conditions.

The volatility index can be read as a chart, with each day’s reading plotted out. Generally, a reading of 0 to 12 represents low volatility in the markets, while a range of 13 to 19 is normal volatility.

Once the VIX reaches 20 or above, that means you can typically expect volatility to be higher over the coming 30 days. For perspective, the VIX notched a 52-week high of 34.88 and a 52-week low of 12.73 as of August 11, 2023.

Example of VIX in Action

The beginning of 2020 saw a gradual rise in the level of concern surrounding the coronavirus and its potential to become a public health crisis. As more cases appeared in the United States, the financial markets began to react. The VIX index, which had hovered around 20 or below since January 2019, began to climb in the third week of February. By March 16, it had reached a peak of 82.69 and the Dow Jones had dropped 12.93%.

After the market crashed, the VIX began to slowly decline. By early November 2021, the volatility index was once again implying volatility on par with pre-pandemic levels, measuring 18.58 as of November 24.

💡 Quick Tip: When you’re actively investing in stocks, it’s important to ask what types of fees you might have to pay. For example, brokers may charge a flat fee for trading stocks, or require some commission for every trade. Taking the time to manage investment costs can be beneficial over the long term.

How Investors Can Trade the VIX

Investors interested in trading the VIX index have a few options for doing so. Cboe offers both VIX options and VIX futures as a starting point.

VIX options are not exactly the same as traditional stock options. They trade nearly 24 hours a day, five days a week during extended trading hours. Investors can trade a call option or put option to make speculative investments based on anticipated volatility in the markets.

Cboe introduced VIX futures in 2004 to allow investors to trade a liquid volatility product using the VIX index as a guide. The difference between options and futures lies largely in the execution.

With options trading, the investor has the right but not the obligation to buy or sell a particular investment. A futures contract, on the other hand, requires the buyer to purchase shares and the seller to sell them at an agreed-upon price.

With VIX options or VIX futures, you’re making investments based on what you expect to happen in the markets based on how the volatility index is trending. Options and futures are speculative investments that carry more risk than some other types of investments. If you’re looking for another way to trade the VIX, you might look to VIX exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or volatility ETFs instead.

Volatility ETFs

Exchange-traded funds hold a basket of securities but they trade on an exchange like a stock. VIX ETFs and volatility ETFs often hold futures contracts or track the movements of a volatility index.

Choosing volatility or VIX ETFs in lieu of trading VIX options or VIX futures directly doesn’t eliminate risk. But it can help you to spread the risk out over a diverse group of investments. If you’re already trading stocks and other securities through an online brokerage account, VIX or volatility ETFs may be included as an investment option.

The Takeaway

The volatility index or VIX is a highly useful tool for measuring market sentiment. While it’s impossible to predict exactly which way the market will move, the VIX index can help with interpreting implied volatility when making investment decisions.

That’s information you can use whether you’re trading options or less risky investments such as stocks or ETFs.

Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

Photo credit: iStock/dolgachov

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INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

Aug

2023

What Is a Volatility Smile?

By Samuel Becker | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off

A volatility smile is a common graphic visualization of the strike prices and the implied volatility of options with the same underlying asset and expiration date. Understanding an implied volatility smile can help traders make decisions about their portfolio or certain securities.

Volatility Smile Definition

Implied volatility smiles involve the plotting of strike prices and implied volatility of a bunch of different options on a graph with levels of implied volatility and different strike prices along its axes. Each of the options plotted share the same underlying asset and expiration date. On a graph, they appear in a U shape (or a smile).

The volatility smile is a graphical pattern that shows that implied volatility for the options in question increases as they move away from the current stock or asset price.

Recommended: A Guide to Options Trading

What Do Volatility Smiles Indicate?

When plotted out, volatility smiles illustrate different levels of implied volatility at different strike prices. So, at strike price X, the level of implied volatility would be Y, and so on. At an extremely basic level, the “smile” appearing on a chart could be an indication that the market is anticipating certain conditions in the future.

The appearance of a volatility smile could also indicate that demand is higher for options that are “in the money” or “out of the money” than it is for those that are “at the money.”

💡 Quick Tip: Investment fees are assessed in different ways, including trading costs, account management fees, and possibly broker commissions. When you set up an investment account, be sure to get the exact breakdown of your “all-in costs” so you know what you’re paying.

Understanding Volatility Smiles, and How to Use Them

A volatility smile can have an effect on options prices. If a trader is considering buying or selling a new option, the chart can help the trader understand the likely pricing of that option, given its strike price and how the market values volatility at a given time. Some options (like those related to currency) have a higher likelihood of producing a volatility smile, and some options will never produce one.

Volatility Smiles and Skews and Smirks

It’s not all smiles when it comes to volatility. There are also volatility skews and volatility smirks in the mix, too.

Volatility Skew

A volatility skew, as seen on a graph, is the difference of measured implied volatility between different options at different strike prices. Basically, a skew appears when there’s a difference in implied volatility between options that are out-of-the-money, at-the-money, and in-the-money. In effect, different options would then trade at different prices.

That means a volatility smile is actually one form of a skew.

Volatility Smirk

Volatility smirks are another form of skew, except rather than having a symmetrical “U” shape, a smirk has a slope to one side.

Instead of a straight line on a graph that would indicate no difference in volatility between the in-the-money, out-of-the-money, and at-the-money options, a smirk shows three different measures of volatility depending on where in “the money” the option lands. This is different from a volatility smile in that a smile indicates that in-the-money and out-of-the-money options are at similar, if not equal, levels of implied volatility.

A smirk is commonly seen when plotting the volatility skew of equity options, where implied volatility is higher on options with lower strikes. One explanation for this phenomenon is that traders favor downside protection, and so purchase put options to compensate for risk.

💡 Quick Tip: Options can be a cost-efficient way to place certain trades, because you typically purchase options contracts, not the underlying security. That said, options trading can be risky, and best done by those who are not entirely new to investing.

Volatility Smile Limitations

An important thing for traders to remember about volatility smiles and skews is that they are theoretical, and reality may not necessarily line up with what’s being portrayed on a graph. In other words, it’s not a fool-proof way to get a read on current market conditions.

Also, not all types of options will showcase smirks or smiles, and for those that do, those smirks or smiles may not always be so clearly defined. A volatility smile may not look like a clear-cut semi-circle — depending on the factors at play, it can look like a much rougher grin than some traders expect.

Volatility Smiles and the Black-Scholes Model

The Black-Scholes Model is a formula that takes several assumptions and inputs — strike prices, expiration dates, price of the underlying asset, interest rates, and volatility — and helps traders calculate the chances of an option expiring in-the-money. It’s a tool to help measure risk, including tail risks.

While popular with many traders for years, it fails to predict volatility smiles — exposing a flaw in its underlying assumptions. Because of that, the Black-Scholes Model may not be as accurate or reliable as previously thought for calculating volatility and corresponding options values.

The Takeaway

Experienced options traders may use volatility smiles as one tool to evaluate the price and risk of a specific asset. They’re typically used by more experienced traders who have advanced tools to help plot securities and who are comfortable trading options and other derivatives.

However, you don’t need such advanced tools to start building a portfolio. It’s possible to begin investing for your future goals without using complicated models or processes.

Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

Photo credit: iStock/zakokor

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.
SOIN0823019

Aug

2023

Simple Moving Average (SMA): What Is a Simple Moving Average?

Simple Moving Average (SMA): Definition & How to Use It

By Austin Kilham | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Simple moving averages are one of the indicators that investors use in technical analysis to help them choose stocks. They’re the average of a range of the prices of a stock over a given time period.

Here’s how to calculate simple moving averages, what they represent, and how to use the information they provide.

What Is Simple Moving Average (SMA)?

A simple moving average is the average price of a stock, often its closing price, over a specific period of time. It’s called “moving” because stock prices always change. As a result, charts that track SMA move forward as each new data point is plotted. Investors use simple moving averages and other technical indicators to help them get an idea of the direction a stock price is moving based on previous prices.

While simple moving averages can give investors a sense of what could happen in the future, they have limitations. That’s because simple moving averages reflect past data, so they only represent past trends.

💡 Quick Tip: Look for an online brokerage with low trading commissions as well as no account minimum. Higher fees can cut into investment returns over time.

Formula for Simple Moving Average

To calculate a simple moving average, Investors take the average closing price of a financial security and divide it by a set number of periods.

The formulas is as follows:

SMA = (P1 + P2 + P3…+ Pn)/n

P is price and n is the number of periods.

Let’s take a look at an example of stock price over a period of 10 days.

Day (n)	Closing price (P)
1	$40
2	$42
3	$47
4	$51
5	$46
6	$44
7	$40
8	$38
9	$37
10	$36

To arrive at the simple moving average, first total the closing prices and divide by the number of periods.

SMA = (40 + 42 + 47 + 51 + 46 + 44 + 40 + 38 + 37 + 36)/10 = 421/10 = $42.10

On day 11, if an investor wants to continue looking at a 10-day average, they would drop the first data point in the list above and add the closing price from the eleventh day, shifting the moving average forward by one data point. They would continue to do this for each subsequent day, and in this way, the average continues to move.

What Does SMA Show You?

Analysts often plot simple moving averages as a line on a chart of individual data points. The line helps smooth out movement, making it easier to identify trends. If the line representing the SMA is moving up, then the price of the stock is trending up. Conversely, if the SMA is moving down, prices are also trending downward.

For long-term trends investors typically look at SMA over 200 days, while intermediate trends may focus on a 50-day period. Short-term trends typically use fewer than 50 data points.

Longer-term SMAs can help smooth out stock volatility, but they also have the biggest lag when compared to current prices.

What Are Crossover Signals?

Investors may chart two SMAs — one relatively short and the other long — to generate crossover signals, points when the lines cross, which can help identify moments to buy or sell a stock.

When the shorter moving average crosses above the longer moving average, it is known as a “golden cross.” This is a bullish signal that tells investors that stock prices are trending in the upward direction. On the other hand, a bearish “death cross” occurs when the shorter moving average crosses below the longer moving average. This is a signal that prices are trending down.

What Are Price Crossovers?

Price crossovers are another signal investors may generate to help them identify moments to buy and sell. When a stock’s prices crosses over the moving average, it generates a bullish signal, and it generates a bearish signal when stock prices crosses under the moving average.

One Step Behind

Though analysts use SMAs to identify trends, they are still lagging indicators. SMAs reflect events that have already taken place, making it a “trend following” metric. In other words, they’ll always be a step behind what is happening in real time. As a result, SMAs do not predict future prices, but they can provide investors with some insight into where prices may be going.

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SMA vs Other Moving Averages

There are other moving averages investors may use when performing technical analysis on a stock. These help investors flesh out recent trends in stock price movement, but they also tend to be a bit more complicated to calculate.

SMA vs Weighted Moving Average

Like SMAs, weighted moving averages (WMAs) help establish the direction in which a stock price is likely moving. However, they put more emphasis on recent prices than SMAs.

Investors calculate a WMA by multiplying each data point by a weighting factor. That gives more weight to recent data and less weight to data farther in the past. The sum of the weighting must add up to 1, or 100%. Simple moving averages, on the other hand, assign an equal weight to each data point.

The formula for WMAs is:

WMA = Price1 x n + Price2 x (n-1) +…Pricen/[n x (n+1)]/2

Where n is the time period.

SMA vs Exponential Moving Average

An exponential moving average (EMA) also gives more weight to more recent prices. However, unlike WMAs, the rate increase between one price and the next is not consistent — it is exponential. Analysts typically use EMAs over a shorter period of time, making them more sensitive to price movements than SMAs are.

The formula for EMA is:

EMA = K x (Current Price – Previous EMA) + Previous EMA

K = 2/(n+1)

n = The selected time period.

For first-time EMA calculations, previous EMA is equal to SMA, an average of all prices over a number of periods, “n”.

Which Moving Average Is Better?

Each moving average has its own place in an investor’s tool belt. Investors may use WMAs and EMAs — which emphasize recent data — if they are worried that lags in data will reduce responsiveness. Some investors believe that the exponential weight given by EMAs makes them a better indicator of price trends than WMAs and SMAs.

Some more complicated indicators require a simple moving average as one input for calculations.

The Takeaway

If you’re just starting out as an investor, it can be hard to know which stocks to buy and when to buy them. Technical analysis strategies, such as moving averages, can help narrow your search and clue you in to potentially advantageous times to buy or sell.

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