Good Data, Bad Geopolitics, and Exchange Rates
Asset prices remained relatively flat over the past month, caught between the push of positive economic data on equities and the pull of geopolitical tensions. While North Korea’s nuclear threats sent equities and interest rates down, we see these events subsiding without major implications for global markets. In determining where the markets will go over the next few months, it’s important to take a look at the interaction between economic data, central bank policy, exchange rates, and equity prices.
In recent posts, we’ve talked about the difficult situation currently facing central bankers. Their mandates essentially require them to begin raising interest rates just when the market’s starting to take off in order to curb inflation. It’s like the host taking away the punch bowl just when the party’s really getting started.